两人多冲突环境下的双矩阵对策集结模型

针对用多个双矩阵对策来描述的两人多冲突环境,首先基于局中人所受到的约束条件,构造局中人面向多冲突环境的可行策略串集合;其次以所有局中人的可行策略串集合建立新的结局空间,构造局中人在新结局空间上的支付函数,进而建立两人多冲突环境下的对策综合集结模型;最后给出了一个军事例子,该算例说明了模型的实用性.     

Solving partially observable agent‐intruder games with an application to border security problems

In this paper, we introduce partially observable agent‐intruder games (POAIGs). These games model dynamic search games on graphs between security forces (an agent) and an intruder given possible (border) entry points and high value assets that require protection. The agent faces situations with dynamically changing, partially observable information about the state of the intruder and vice versa. The agent may place sensors at selected locations, while the intruder may recruit partners to observe the agent's movement. We formulate the problem as a two‐person zero‐sum game, and develop efficient algorithms to compute each player's optimal strategy. The solution to the game will help the agent choose sensor locations and design patrol routes that can handle imperfect information. First, we prove the existence of ?‐optimal strategies for POAIGs with an infinite time horizon. Second, we introduce a Bayesian approximation algorithm to identify these ?‐optimal strategies using belief functions that incorporate the imperfect information that becomes available during the game. For the solutions of large POAIGs with a finite time horizon, we use a solution method common to extensive form games, namely, the sequence form representation. To illustrate the POAIGs, we present several examples and numerical results.     

Technical note: Reexamination of all‐or‐none inspection policies in a supply chain with endogenous product quality

This note studies the optimal inspection policies in a supply chain in which a manufacturer purchases components from a supplier but has no direct control of component quality. The manufacturer uses an inspection policy and a damage cost sharing contract to encourage the supplier to improve the component quality. We find that all‐or‐none inspection policies are optimal for the manufacturer if the supplier's share of the damage cost is larger than a threshold; otherwise, the manufacturer should inspect a fraction of a batch. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

基于模糊多目标对策的雷达反干扰策略优化

考虑到单部雷达反干扰效能评估指标多样化、模糊且存在不同权重的情况,在对策论基础上提出了一种雷达反干扰策略优化模型,并在考虑局中人偏好情况下,设计了一种模糊多目标对策最优混合策略求解算法,为找出较优化的雷达反干扰策略以及为战场决策提供参考。     

航天器轨道追逃动力学与控制问题研究综述

随着航天器交会与接近操作技术的快速发展,轨道追逃问题逐渐成为航天领域的研究热点。从动力学与控制视角,对航天器轨道追逃问题的研究现状进行综述。给出了基于定量微分对策的轨道追逃问题模型的一般形式,系统梳理了各种类型的轨道追逃问题;对于追逃策略求解,分别针对闭环策略和开环策略,分析了各种方法的优缺点;围绕人工智能算法与轨道追逃问题的结合,阐述了基于深度神经网络和强化学习的轨道追逃策略的研究现状。关于未来展望,提出了追逃博弈态势分析、多航天器博弈控制、三体条件下博弈动力学与控制等发展方向。     

空间非合作目标贴近扫描观测的制导方法研究

随着微小卫星技术的不断发展,对目标航天器的近距离观测已成为一类新的航天任务,在空间态势感知、在轨服务等方面具有重要作用和广泛应用前景。针对大型空间非合作目标的近距离扫描观测问题,提出了一种基于改进的人工势场法的制导方法,设计了平行于目标区域表面的引力场函数和垂直于目标区域表面的斥力场函数,由引力场来提供前进的加速度,并满足成像拖影量的约束,由斥力场来处理分辨率和碰撞避免约束。所得到的观测航天器轨迹能够很好地跟随目标区域形状,实现对空间非合作目标区域连续稳定的扫描观测,且所需要的速度增量不大,计算量较小,便于星上执行。     

公安现役部队边检工作开展“提服”活动的实践与思考

通过开展“提服”活动,提高了边检人员的服务质量和工作水平,同时向全世界展示了我国边防检查机关的良好形象。如何深化“提服”活动成果,是目前公安现役部队边检工作的重要议题。     

基于风险评估的检测与修理决策模型

研究了基于故障风险的检测与维修策略,运用威布尔比例风险模型建立系统故障率与工作时间及所处状态的关系。分析了两类基于间接状态信息维修决策的风险,建立了系统检测及维修策略的决策树,通过比较检测与不检测情况下的期望费用确定最优的检测间隔。算例表明,所提出的方法能够有效控制系统运行风险,降低系统运行费用。     

Inventory control under substitutable demand: A stochastic game application

Substitutable product inventory problem is analyzed using the concepts of stochastic game theory. It is assumed that there are two substitutable products that are sold by different retailers and the demand for each product is random. Game theoretic nature of this problem is the result of substitution between products. Since retailers compete for the substitutable demand, ordering decision of each retailer depends on the ordering decision of the other retailer. Under the discounted payoff criterion, this problem is formulated as a two‐person nonzero‐sum stochastic game. In the case of linear ordering cost, it is shown that there exists a Nash equilibrium characterized by a pair of stationary base stock strategies for the infinite horizon problem. This is the unique Nash equilibrium within the class of stationary base stock strategies. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 359–375, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10018     

Delivery‐date and capacity management in a decentralized internal market

We study competitive due‐date and capacity management between the marketing and engineering divisions within an engineer‐to‐order (ETO) firm. Marketing interacts directly with the customers and quotes due‐dates for their orders. Engineering is primarily concerned with the efficient utilization of resources and is willing to increase capacity if the cost is compensated. The two divisions share the responsibility for timely delivery of the jobs. We model the interaction between marketing and engineering as a Nash game and investigate the effect of internal competition on the equilibrium decisions. We observe that the internal competition not only degrades the firm's overall profitability but also the serviceability. Finally, we extend our analysis to multiple‐job settings that consider both flexible and inflexible capacity. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008