基于网络抗毁性的装备贡献度评价

高新技术的应用使装备间关联关系更加复杂,武器装备论证更加困难。装备对体系贡献度研究为武器装备论证发展提供了新思路。基于作战环思想构建武器装备体系作战网络模型,同时完成作战环理论所划分的同类型装备的网络化建模,提出复杂网络背景下装备贡献度的定义及基于网络抗毁性的贡献度评价方法,通过美国国家导弹防御系统进行算例分析来验证该方法的可行性。结果显示,不同装备对体系的贡献度大小可以通过复杂网络模型进行预判。     

基于三方动态博弈模型的网络生存防御策略优化配置

针对网络攻防环境中防御方以提高系统生存能力为目的所进行的最优生存防御策略的选取问题,提出了一种基于完全信息动态博弈理论的生存防御策略优化配置算法。将恶意攻击方、故障意外事件及防御方作为博弈的参与人,提出了一种混合战略模式下的三方动态博弈模型,对博弈的主要信息要素进行了说明,以混合战略纳什均衡理论为基础,将原纳什均衡条件式的表达式转化为可计算数值结果的表达式,并据此增加了近似的概念,最后,将提出的模型和近似纳什均衡求解算法应用到一个网络实例中,结果证明了模型和算法的可行性和有效性。     

基于广义回归神经网络的单位运营状况分类

单位的运营状况会直接影响股东和广大人民的利益,针对运营状况可以使用广义回归神经网络进行分类。由于广义回归神经网络中径向基函数的扩展参数Spread的选取会导致分类的准确率,提出了一种果蝇优化算法优化参数Spread的分类模型。充分利用了果蝇优化算法的寻优能力,将优化后的参数代入到广义回归神经网络中对单位的财务数据进行运营状况的分类。结果表明,与广义回归神经网络做比较,优化后的网络模型对数据的分类可以达到很高的准确率,在相关领域的分类上有非常大的实用性。     

基于动态贝叶斯网络的复杂网络抗毁性分析

复杂网络抗毁性是复杂网络在节点或边遇敌攻击后能继续维持基本功能的能力,是衡量军事信息网络鲁棒性和敏捷性的重要指标。针对复杂网络及对作战体系支撑能力的多指标、复杂化和动态演绎特点,在静态分析方法基础上,提出基于动态贝叶斯网络的抗毁性分析方法。建立了复杂网络抗毁性指标体系。构建了基于动态贝叶斯网络的复杂网络抗毁性评估模型,提出确定评估模型参数的方法。仿真验证了方法的可行性和有效性。     

“Effing” the military: a political misunderstanding of management

The use of commercial business management techniques is widespread in all government departments, including the Ministry of Defence. This article examines the use of popular management techniques in the Armed Forces and argues that their application is misplaced. It looks at what the “effs” – “efficiency” and “effectiveness” – mean in the business world and to the Armed Forces. It compares the definitions both in business and the Armed Forces and finds that there are few, if any, situations where the same measurements can be applied. Whilst many management techniques are suited for business, the function of the Armed Forces and its output cannot be measured in the same way, complicated by the different metrics of “efficiency” in peace and in war. This difference may not be clearly understood by some politicians, or indeed by some senior military personnel. Using examples from some of the most popular management techniques such as “Lean” and “Agile” it is possible to see that their use might actually diminish the capabilities of the Armed Forces when it comes to performing their principal role – the use of force to achieve political objectives.     

美国联合非致命武器项目及其十年科技战略规划

美国联合非致命武器理事会在成立20周年之际发布了《联合非致命武器项目科技战略规划2016-2025》,对未来十年相关领域的科技发展做出了部署安排。本文介绍美国联合非致命武器项目的使命职能、组织机构、运行模型、代表性成果以及十年科技战略规划,旨在为技术创新和管理创新提供参考和借鉴。     

航空弹药供应保障存在的问题及对策

在现代高技术信息化战争中,航空弹药地位和作用日渐突出。在分析了信息化条件下现代战争对航空弹药供应保障提出的新需求基础上,指出了航空弹药供应保障存在的不足,并从航空弹药的储备、管理和供应三个方面分别提出了相应的对策。研究表明,着眼应急作战的实际需要,搞好航空弹药供应保障,提高应急作战弹药供应保障能力,是摆在面前的一个现实而又紧迫的任务。     

运用“五种思维”提升部队指挥员应急处置能力

运用底线思维、辩证思维、创新思维、战略思维和历史思维五种思维有效提高部队指挥员应急处置的安全防控能力、决策能力、应变能力、控制能力和学习能力。     

一种基于改进型BC-CSRR的半模基片集成波导滤波器

为解决传统BC-CSRR在阻带性能上的问题,提出了一种改进型MBC-CSRR结构,并利用该结构设计了一个阻带性能优良的HMSIW滤波器。分析了加载MBC-CSRR的HMSIW等效电路和结构特性,采用有限元法对该结构的传输特性进行了仿真。结果表明:所提出的改进型MBC-CSRR在保持传统BC-CSRR优点的基础上具有更优良的阻带性能。应用该结构设计了一个三阶HMSIW带通滤波器并进行测试。结果表明:所设计的加载MBC-CSRR的HMISW滤波器具有结构紧凑、损耗低、成本低、易于集成且阻带性能优良等特点。     

Advancing “Defence-in-depth”: intelligence and systems dynamics

This article aims to encourage the fostering of more systems thinking, and its greater exploitation, within the domain of contemporary intelligence. With particular focus on “micro systems thinking” and with reference to key intelligence processes, such as intelligence analysis, the utility of many systems dynamics within the intelligence context seeks to be further revealed. Through their greater collective harnessing, including up to “System of Systems” (“SoS”) dynamics, and promoting all that they can offer, more sophisticated overarching operational-to-strategic/policy “ends,” notably that of “defence-in-depth,” can be viably further advanced in a sustainable manner into the future. Arguably, a much-needed transformative impact on contemporary intelligence can also be increasingly realised through comprehensively engaging in and with more systems and SoS thinking. Aiding civil protection tasks, crisis management, emergency planners, and civil contingency practitioners likewise gain.