Intelligence reform and the transformation of the state: the end of a French exception

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the intelligence sector is a privileged vantage point to observe and analyse a transformation of the State in France, as this transformation deeply affects the heart of the executive power and the French intelligence and security apparatus. Traditionally, intelligence was not conceived in France as a functional tool in the hands of the decision-maker but was rather defined as a ‘regalian power’. Intelligence activities were derived from a very specific conception of the State, and especially the particular notion of ‘reason of State’ (raison d’État). The current intelligence reform prompts speculation as to whether it represents more than a ‘simple’ functional reorganisation or in fact could signify that intelligence is now recognised as a tool in the hands of a ‘État de droit’ (‘liberal state’). The idea of a French ‘exceptionalism’ is addressed through a theoretical approach of the way France redefines intelligence and surveillance in relation with a major evolution of the notion of ‘reason of State’ itself. Then the article illustrates the assumption of a ‘lost tradition’ of reason of State through an analysis of the current reform of the intelligence sector in France. This reform is based on processes of rationalisation, centralization, modernisation and normalisation of both intelligence activities and intelligence services in France. As a conclusion, the article addresses the reactions to the January and November 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, and asks whether resilience towards terrorism requires to accelerate the pace of the transformation of the French intelligence sector.     

一种基于分层智能混合决策的多Agent框架

智能对于指挥决策模型非常重要,也是提高模拟训练和作战实验质量的关键。作战中指挥决策内容多,问题性质不一,对智能要求高。在分析指挥控制模型发展现状基础上提出模型对智能的需求,分析设定了智能的5个层次,提出一种混合Agent框架,并在框架中对每一层智能给出解决方案,框架兼具认知Agent、BDI Agent和刺激反应Agent的优长,对构建智能化的训练和实验系统有较大帮助。框架在指挥装备作战运用实验中得到应用,具有较好的理论意义和应用价值。     

英语写作能力培养探微

本文通过对非英语专业学生四级考试分析,反映了当前大学英语写作教学存在的问题。在此基础上作者提出:改进当前英语写作问题的关键是教师要引导学生做有意义和高质量的语言输入,并重视智力与非智力因素在写作教学中的协调发展。     

一种改进的雷达探测概率计算方法

基于对指挥自动化系统日常积累的雷达情报数据进行处理,提出了一种改进的雷达探测概率计算方法。综合考虑了目标在飞行过程中,RCS随着其与雷达相对位置的变化而变化的因素,对各个高度层上的航迹按距离取样间隔分段,统计各分段内的观测点数和发现点数,从而计算各距离取样间隔内的发现概率,再根据目标相对雷达的俯仰角和方位角对距离取样间隔中心点的探测距离进行修正。     

故障预测技术综述

把握新军事变革机遇,加快信息化建设步伐,对军事装备进行有效的质量监控和故障预测是技术保障的重要内容。阐述了故障预测技术,系统地介绍了现有的、比较有代表性的故障预测技术方法,并叙述了其优缺点;最后重点对故障预测技术的发展前景进行了展望,指出了该研究领域当前需要进一步研究的问题和发展方向。研究故障预测技术对提高装备的维修和保障能力具有十分重要的意义。     

军用无人机技术智能化发展及应用

军用无人机作为收集战场信息和军事打击的新兴手段和工具,以其机动灵活、战场生存能力强等独特优势,能够方便快速地获取战场态势,极大地弥补了传统作战方式和侦查手段的短板和不足。智能无人系统的发展可能会引领军事领域的重大变革甚至改变战争形态。文章介绍了无人机技术在军事领域中的发展和应用现状,并从飞行控制、火控系统、任务规划以及无人机集群等方面浅析了军用无人机技术智能化发展方向。     

Information sharing in multinational security and military operations. Why and why not? With whom and with whom not?

Military operations increasingly require cooperation between agencies within the same nation, but also collaboration with security and military organizations internationally. Throughout history multinational military cooperation has often been an appropriate way to conduct major operations; national manpower and material resources are generally insufficient to address the demands of missions worldwide. The desire to optimize the use of scarce research and development and investment capabilities, the need for international legitimacy and political support, and the fact that today’s risks transcend national borders, have rendered multinational cooperation in the security domain unavoidable. With joint operations comes the requirement for multi-partner- and multinational information sharing. However, information sharing has both advantages and costs, and is subject to both enabling factors as well as barriers. This paper reflects on theories, both classical and current, as well as empirical case studies, to examine the pros and cons of multinational information sharing, and the factors that conduce or interfere with the transmission and the receipt of intelligence. The importance of a holistic approach and of learning lessons learned are two key lessons gleaned from the analysis, along with an emphasis on developing both the organizational and the interpersonal enablers of information sharing.     

How viable is international arms control for military artificial intelligence? Three lessons from nuclear weapons

Many observers anticipate “arms races” between states seeking to deploy artificial intelligence (AI) in diverse military applications, some of which raise concerns on ethical and legal grounds, or from the perspective of strategic stability or accident risk. How viable are arms control regimes for military AI? This article draws a parallel with the experience in controlling nuclear weapons, to examine the opportunities and pitfalls of efforts to prevent, channel, or contain the militarization of AI. It applies three analytical lenses to argue that (1) norm institutionalization can counter or slow proliferation; (2) organized “epistemic communities” of experts can effectively catalyze arms control; (3) many military AI applications will remain susceptible to “normal accidents,” such that assurances of “meaningful human control” are largely inadequate. I conclude that while there are key differences, understanding these lessons remains essential to those seeking to pursue or study the next chapter in global arms control.     

一种改进的电子情报分析模型

电子情报的分析处理,对提高电子对抗作战效能意义重大。综合运用聚类算法和分类算法构建了一种改进的电子情报分析模型。该模型首先通过基于粗糙集改进的k-means算法完成对记录数据库中雷达信号的聚类分选,选取聚类中心信号表征此类信号;再采用粗糙集提取有效的最优规则并用于聚类中心脉冲识别,从而分选出已知信号和未知信号;未知信号确定其特性后添加到已知威胁雷达数据库。通过仿真,验证了该模型的适用性和有效性。     

【专题】无人机系统发展阶段和智能化趋势

本文根据无人机系统的主要技术特征对其发展阶段进行了分析概括,并对其智能化趋势进行了展望。首先,通过分析无人机系统的百余年发展历程和核心特点,将无人机系统的发展划分为萌芽起步阶段、初步发展阶段、崛起发展阶段、蓬勃发展阶段、稳步发展阶段和智能化发展阶段;其次,从主要特征、使命任务、任务载荷、导航系统和控制方式等角度对各个阶段特点进行了多维分析和对比;最后,从单体无人系统智能化（认知智能）、无人集群系统智能化（群体智能）和有人-无人系统智能化（混合智能）三个方面分析了无人机系统发展的智能化趋势。希冀这种从具体技术特征的角度来划分无人机系统发展阶段的方法对厘清无人机系统发展历程和趋势具有一定借鉴意义。