The art of meddling: a theoretical,strategic and historical analysis of non-official covers for clandestine Humint

The building of reliable covers has always been of the utmost importance for clandestine Humint. Using both primary and secondary sources, this study seeks to examine how classical authors and modern scholars have dealt with this topic, and which kind of covers have been the most used throughout history in different sociopolitical contexts, and what are the new perspectives for today’s challenges. Findings suggest that a careful reading of the political milieu in which intelligence officers are required to work, and a certain degree of creativity, are the essential premises for the construction of a plausible cover; that some apparently outdated disguises such as merchants, itinerant monks and philosophers should be understood more broadly today to include business people, humanitarian NGOs and academics; that undercover practices have been theoretically and historically recognized as necessary and convenient by a great number of societies, often with scant regard for ethical considerations.     

Indications and warning in Belgium: Brussels is not Delphi

The terrorist attacks in France and Belgium of 2015–2016 that occurred while these countries were in a heightened state of alert raise questions about indications and warning methodology as well as effectiveness of the blanket-protection deployment of security services assisted even by the military. Response and perhaps even more anticipation may require strategic rethinking in light of the predatory attacks that target the most vulnerable spots of the public space. This study looks at threat analysis in Belgium as conducted through her intelligence fusion centre Coordination Unit for Threat Analysis (CUTA)?????? since its inception in 2006. With a special focus on what is known, at the time of writing, about the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels, this study hopes to put into context how the system (mal)functions and will also consider the preventive measures that respond to the threat, and the international aspects which have implications far beyond Belgian borders. Therefore, a case is made for not just a Belgian homeland security framework, but one that fits into an EU-wide security concept.     

基于SWOT分析的警卫情报工作优化研究

当前,警卫情报工作的范围已经扩展到警卫实战、预警、决策、管理等各个方面,但从总体上看,警卫情报工作仍需进一步优化,以满足日益增长的警卫实践需求。针对警卫情报工作的特点,采用SWOT分析法对警卫情报工作的内外部条件进行客观分析,提出针对性的优化策略,以提升警卫情报工作能力。     

高超声速滑翔飞行器滑翔段预测-校正制导研究

为了满足高超声速滑翔飞行器再入制导过程中的终端约束和过程约束,针对滑翔段具有不确定初值和气动干扰的滑翔再入问题,联合三维轨迹快速在线生成技术和模型预测静态规划（MPSP）技术提出了一种改进的MPSP预测-校正制导律。建立了基于能量的高超声速滑翔飞行器的运动学模型,详细推导了MPSP预测-校正制导理论。构建了基于三维快速轨迹规划的初值生成器,探讨了初始下降段对滑翔段的影响因素。针对滑翔段初值干扰和气动参数摄动问题,设计了预测-校正制导律,进行了数字仿真。仿真结果表明,改进的MPSP预测-校正制导方法能够有效利用精确的猜测值,对干扰初值和气动摄动具有较强的鲁棒性。     

Strategic intelligence during coin detention operations – relational data and understanding latent terror networks

One aspect of the global “War on Terror” that has received limited coverage in the academic literature is the problem of detained persons as it relates to intelligence. This is a surprising oversight, given the number of detainees that the USA has been responsible for (over 25,000 were in custody in Iraq alone at one time during its peak). The detention environment offers a prime strategic intelligence opportunity for the US intelligence community to study the tactics and organizations of individuals who have been removed from the overall conflict. In this article an easily implemented collection program is recommended to be deployed in US/coalition detention centers. The primary recommendation is to gather relational data on detainee communication, both authorized and illicit, and to use these data to perform network analyses of terrorist groups and their individual members.     

基于灰色关联投影法的空中加油机驻场选址评价

提出了一种基于灰色关联投影法的空中加油机驻场选址评价方法,分析了空中加油机驻场选址影响因素,设计了评价指标体系,并运用熵值理论客观赋权,构建了加权灰色关联决策矩阵。通过比较备选方案与理想方案灰色关联投影角,根据灰色关联投影值对备选方案进行优劣排序。算例分析结果符合现实场站选择条件,说明该方法能够有效解决空中加油机驻场选址问题。     

The view from above: how the Royal Air Force provided a strategic vision for operational intelligence during the Malayan Emergency

It has long been held that the Federation of Malaya’s counter-insurgency campaign during the First Malayan Emergency (1948–60) was determined by the use of intelligence. Special Branch — the Federation’s primary intelligence agency — dominates the prevailing paradigm of how the insurgent threat was tackled. Conversely, the role of the Royal Air Force (RAF) within this paradigm is very limited. Most observers simply dismiss the role of photoreconnaissance or airstrikes as being largely inconsequential to the counter-insurgency effort. This is perhaps understandable: the Emergency was after all a ‘policing action’ and the insurgents were largely hidden under Malaya’s jungle canopy and amongst the Chinese community. However, further scrutiny reveals that the RAF made a much more significant contribution to the intelligence element of the counter-insurgency campaign than previously realised. First, the RAF decided to locate their Advanced Headquarters with the Army’s General Headquarters. This led to the creation of the Land/Air Operations Room, through which intelligence, tasking and resources were coordinated. Moreover, the RAF put its intelligence teams into the field to provide a practical link between local units and theatre-level assets. Second, with the support of the Army, the RAF established at the beginning of the Emergency the Joint Air Photographic Intelligence Board (Far East). This coordinated all photographic intelligence requirements throughout the Emergency, which was then delivered via the Joint Air Photographic Centre (Far East). Hence, via Joint Operations Centre and JAPIB (FE), the RAF provided both the practical means for effective joint intelligence operations at theatre level throughout the Emergency.     

增强小波系数的飞行数据奇异值阈值降噪

针对飞行数据降噪问题,提出了增强小波系数的飞行数据奇异值阈值降噪算法.结合小波系数噪声自相关函数进行飞行数据的最佳分解层小波分解,对高频小波系数先进行增强预处理再进行SVD分解,运用奇异熵理论确定奇异值重构阶次,采用奇异值阈值对小波系数进行处理并重构,得到降噪数据.仿真实验表明,本文算法能获得较高的信噪比,改善了数据质量.     

基于云理论的装备技术状态预测

通过分析装备技术状态变化的模糊性和不确定性等特性,提出了基于云理论的装备技术状态预测模型.根据装备技术状态劣化趋势,给出了基于云模型的时间序列状态预测方法,有效地运用了装备状态评估中的主观预测知识.将历史趋势与当前趋势相结合,实现了基于时间序列的状态预测.最后以某装备的发动机为研究对象,对发动机状态的动态评估值进行了预测,验证了该状态预测方法的有效性.     

增强公安现役部队院校学员社会主义核心价值体系认同对策研究

社会主义核心价值体系决定着中国特色社会主义的发展方向,公安现役部队院校学员是公安现役部队的重要后备力量,经济转型期的阶层分化、多元文化和日益发展的网络文化对学员认同社会主义核心价值体系有不同程度的影响.应当在公安现役院校的思想政治教育中,把社会主义核心价值体系贯穿于两课教学的全过程,帮助学员在多元文化中提高辨别能力,探索运用网络进行思想政治教育的新途径、新机制.