美军无人机蜂群作战研究动态及应对策略

无人机蜂群是以智能化无人控制技术和网络信息系统为支撑的集群式无人作战武器装备,这种新型武器装备势必将成为改变未来战争规则的重要推手.美军作为无人机蜂群作战研究的领跑者,掌握了解其发展动态,学习其相关有益经验做法,参考借鉴其理论体系和关键技术,对于军队打赢未来智能化战争具有重要现实意义.本文通过梳理与总结美军在无人机蜂群...     

扩展信念网络模型的军事情报检索系统设计

着眼信息化战争条件下军事情报分类、处理困难的现实,在深入分析军事情报检索系统特点基础上,提出一个基于分类的自动存储和利用查询术语同义词关系扩展信念模型的检索军事情报检索原型系统,详细描述了其存储和检索设计思路.     

挣值管理在装备寿命周期费用控制中的应用

在阐述挣值法的概念以及评价指标体系的基础上,建立了挣值管理在装备寿命周期费用控制中的三维模型,并将进度维中的各个里程碑与寿命周期过程结合起来,应用作业成本法对各个里程碑计划价值进行求解,最后举例说明,挣值法能够对装备寿命周期费用进行有效的预测和控制。     

首都周边维稳预警机制研究

在构建首都大周边维稳预警机制中,情报工作具有监测、预测和辅助决策功能。社情监测离不开情报的收集,维稳社情预测依赖于情报的分析、研判、传递与通报,危害社会安全稳定案件预控离不开情报支撑。做好首都周边地区维稳预警工作,需要健全和完善情报收集制度、情报分析和研判制度、情报送报制度、相关情报工作制度以及社会舆情信息汇集与分析制度。     

日本预防街头犯罪对策与启示

在剖析解读日本街头犯罪＂预防对策＂的基础上,提出日本警察运用简单手段取得社会治安的理想效果。预防犯罪,在理念上把警方全包全责调整向组织牵头、协调联动和指导督促;在实践上完善警察牵头,以警察、政府相关部门、生产相关企业、新闻媒体和普通民众等广泛参与为基础的联动群防机制;在落实上不断加强高技术手段与原始方法相互补充的立体防范环境建设;在过程中尽量贴近现实需要,以完整的系统来控制街头犯罪,是降低预防犯罪成本、提高预防犯罪效率的捷径之一。     

油漆稀料燃烧残留物的薄层色谱分析

采用薄层色谱扫描分析技术对醇酸、硝基油漆稀料在不同载体下的燃烧残留物进行了研究。制备了不同载体上的油漆稀料燃烧残留物,并以三氯甲烷为萃取剂对残留物进行提取,得到分析样品;结果显示,不同成分的油漆稀料特征组分不同,而不同载体对特征组分Rf值影响不同;通过对油漆稀料燃烧残留物的薄层色谱扫描分析,可以帮助火灾调查人员准确、快速的判断火场中油漆稀料的存在,为鉴定油漆稀料放火火灾提供借鉴。     

Disregarding the Bear: How US Intelligence Failed to Estimate the Soviet Intervention in the Egyptian–Israeli War of Attrition 1

This article analyzes the main factors that contributed to the failure of the US intelligence community to alert against Soviet intentions and the intervention in the Egyptian–Israeli War of Attrition in 1969–70. Based on fresh archival sources, this research describes the US intelligence conception concerning the USSR; explains the crystallization of the intelligence estimate on the probability of Soviet intervention in 1970; deals with the intelligence data that were acquired but eventually ignored; and concludes with several plausible explanations for the intelligence blunder.     

A reply to Larry cable

Recent counterinsurgency experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan have demonstrated that the local operating environment often is dominated by indigenous power-holders. As counterinsurgents seek to establish control over the local population, collaboration with these agents has become an essential aspect of contemporary counterinsurgency. Although the practice of constructing collaborative relationships with indigenous power-holders might be perceived as unconventional by today's counterinsurgents, the approach itself goes back to the colonial era in which modern counterinsurgency has its roots. This article explores the dynamics, benefits, and dangers of collaborative relationships with indigenous power-holders by analysing an infamous episode in Dutch colonial history, the case of the collaboration between Dutch colonial authorities and warlord Teuku Uma during the Aceh War (1873–1913). This relationship ended in disaster for the Dutch as Uma departed their side at the moment he had become their pivotal asset in the local political landscape. The article explains that the Dutch succeeded to co-opt Uma, but failed to control him as they lacked the will and means to do so. Furthermore this case study provides an insight in the way the Dutch colonial authorities dealt with the complex process of intelligence-gathering in a fragmented indigenous society.     

Game theoretic analysis of maximum cooperative purchasing situations

This article introduces maximum cooperative purchasing (MCP)‐situations, a new class of cooperative purchasing situations. Next, an explicit alternative mathematical characterization of the nucleolus of cooperative games is provided. The allocation of possible cost savings in MCP‐situations, in which the unit price depends on the largest order quantity within a group of players, is analyzed by defining corresponding cooperative MCP‐games. We show that a decreasing unit price is a sufficient condition for a nonempty core: there is a set of marginal vectors that belong to the core. The nucleolus of an MCP‐game can be derived in polynomial time from one of these marginal vectors. To show this result, we use the new mathematical characterization for the nucleolus for cooperative games. Using the decomposition of an MCP‐game into unanimity games, we find an explicit expression for the Shapley value. Finally, the behavior of the solution concepts is compared numerically. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 607–624, 2013     

Countering terrorism in Northern Ireland: the role of intelligence

This article aims to review some of the key lessons learnt by the Royal Ulster Constabulary's (RUC) Special Branch in the 37 years of the troubles in Northern Ireland. Above all counter-terrorism is an intelligence led operation and Special Branch are the key agency for this in all UK police forces, who have now benefited enormously from the expertise that the RUC's Special Branch built up over the years and have passed on to their colleagues throughout the UK. Intelligence is more often than not a human role and relies on human agencies, which was the case in Northern Ireland. The bulk of intelligence gathering was carried out at quite low levels although the sifting and analysing of it became a more specialist skill. Electronic intelligence and computerised systems were often quite low down in the order of priorities and uses, which tends to confound popular impressions. Agents, informers and good old fashioned ‘coppers’ who knew their patch were much more important both in terms of gathering information and in terms of undermining the terrorists morale from within and it was these factors that fundamentally defeated the IRA in Northern Ireland.