SYMBIOTIC SPIES

Spying on the Nuclear Bear: Anglo-American Intelligence and the Soviet Bomb, by Michael S. Goodman. Stanford University Press, 2007. 295 pages, $50.     

大数据在信息作战指挥决策中的运用

针对信息作战指挥决策中大数据的运用问题,通过对大数据的海量信息检索能力、交叉复现的分析能力、“全信息”运算能力、智能决策执行能力的研究,提出了大数据为其提供按需订制的情报信息、多元多维的决策视角、动态实时的决策支持、智能自主的决策方式的观点,初步探索了大数据在信息作战指挥决策中的运用,对将大数据引入信息作战指挥决策具有十分重要的指导意义。     

军事情报价值的当量评估法

研究了军事情报价值的综合性和相对性,提出了军事情报价值评估的当量分析法,分别针对确定性标度和模糊标度结合层次分析法给出了评估算法。算例结果表明方法有一定的合理性且评价结论易于理解。     

各向异性矩形板平面应力问题一般解析解

采用复级数方法首次建立了线性偏微分方程组边值问题的一般解析解法,并用于求解各向异性矩形板平面应力问题,给出各向异性板平面应力问题一般解析解．引入（Ｕ,Ｖ）＝∑∞－∞（Ａ,Ｂ）ｅｉｍπζ,ｅｉｍπηｒ,代入控制方程组,推出实数型级数解,将其回代入平衡方程组中任一个,可确定待定系数（Ａ,Ｂ）之间关系．将一般解析解代入边界条件,用余弦级数的方法确定待求系数．数值计算验证了解析方法的收敛性．     

三维半线性波动方程初值问题解的破裂

研究了半线性波动方程初值问题在三维空间中解的生命跨度的上界估计,关于此初值问题的爆破解将被建立。无论多么小的初值,该问题都没有整体解,在前人研究的基础上给出该初值问题解的生命跨度的上界估计。     

Variable sampling plans for normal distribution indexed by Taguchi's loss function

Taguchi has presented an approach to quality improvement in which reduction of deviation from the target value is the guiding principle. In this approach any measured value x of a product characteristic X brings a loss to consumer in general, where the loss is expressed as a quadratic form with respect to the difference between the measured value x and the target value T of a product characteristic. Then, it is natural to reject the lot which may bring a large loss to consumer. This concept induces us to construct new variable sampling plans based on the Taguchi's loss criterion. In this article, a design procedure of the sampling plans for assuring the loss in the Taguchi's method is proposed. Some numerical results based on the proposed design procedures are illustrated. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 591–603 (1997)     

多源情报信息在空中目标敌我识别中的应用

根据部队的实际使用情况,考虑到诸多理论成果的应用现状,提出一种简洁实用的关联识别算法,即根据多信源、多因子的综合判断给出目标的属性。该算法还首次给出了复杂空域的计算方法。     

Determining a role for a military ombudsman in the South African National Defence Force

In recent years, South Africa has come to be used by international terrorists as a safe house, for paramilitary training purposes, as a base from which to plan attacks on other countries and as a conduit for financial transactions. South Africa's own counter-terrorism initiatives have been labelled ‘reactive’ by analysts. Indeed, the existing counter-terrorism regime suffers from a lack of political will to issues of corruption and ineptitude bedevilling the security apparatus of the state. However, using lessons learned from other countries, Pretoria can yet turn the tide against international terrorism by adopting more pro-active measures and by undertaking steps aimed at the depoliticisation and decriminalisation of the security forces.     

Game theoretic analysis of maximum cooperative purchasing situations

This article introduces maximum cooperative purchasing (MCP)‐situations, a new class of cooperative purchasing situations. Next, an explicit alternative mathematical characterization of the nucleolus of cooperative games is provided. The allocation of possible cost savings in MCP‐situations, in which the unit price depends on the largest order quantity within a group of players, is analyzed by defining corresponding cooperative MCP‐games. We show that a decreasing unit price is a sufficient condition for a nonempty core: there is a set of marginal vectors that belong to the core. The nucleolus of an MCP‐game can be derived in polynomial time from one of these marginal vectors. To show this result, we use the new mathematical characterization for the nucleolus for cooperative games. Using the decomposition of an MCP‐game into unanimity games, we find an explicit expression for the Shapley value. Finally, the behavior of the solution concepts is compared numerically. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 607–624, 2013     

Disregarding the Bear: How US Intelligence Failed to Estimate the Soviet Intervention in the Egyptian–Israeli War of Attrition 1

This article analyzes the main factors that contributed to the failure of the US intelligence community to alert against Soviet intentions and the intervention in the Egyptian–Israeli War of Attrition in 1969–70. Based on fresh archival sources, this research describes the US intelligence conception concerning the USSR; explains the crystallization of the intelligence estimate on the probability of Soviet intervention in 1970; deals with the intelligence data that were acquired but eventually ignored; and concludes with several plausible explanations for the intelligence blunder.