Beyond Pessimism: Why the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Will Not Collapse

This article questions the predominantly pessimistic assessments over the future of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). After analysing available evidence on states’ interests and interactions within the NPT’s framework, it argues that several negative expectations are unwarranted. Conversely, the article identifies three potentially threatening scenarios. Therefore, it scrutinizes the likely impact of reactive nuclear proliferation; analyses the probability of significant actors challenging the existent nuclear architecture; and explores whether the treaty’s enforcement might soon be diluted. The article concludes the NPT is unlikely to face fundamental threats in the foreseeable future.     

基于粒子群优化算法的平流层飞艇总体设计

平流层飞艇总重最小化能一定程度上反映总费用最低的设计目标,满足有效载荷功率需求是飞艇总体设计的出发点和落脚点。本文在飞艇参数建模中引入了太阳电池曲面铺装模型以及昼夜能源闭环模型;以整艇重量最小为设计目标,以昼夜能源供需平衡、浮重平衡、推阻平衡三大平衡问题为约束条件,运用粒子群优化（PSO）算法对飞艇的外形尺寸参数进行优化设计;分析了有效载荷功率需求和功率密度对于飞艇总体设计结果的敏感性。分析结果表明：（1）飞艇总重随有效载荷功率线性增加;（2）飞艇总重随有效载荷功率密度增加而迅速减小,但变化率逐渐变小,飞艇总重趋于稳定。最后,能源系统仿真的结果表明了飞艇总体设计方法的有效性和设计结果的临界特性。     

浮球式惯性平台连续翻滚自标定自对准方法

针对浮球式惯性平台系统的标定与初始对准问题,提出了一种基于姿态角的连续翻滚自标定自对准方法。根据浮球平台工作原理,建立了惯性器件误差模型,推导了浮球平台的姿态动力学方程;设计了平台在重力场连续翻滚的施矩方案;利用分段线性定常系统和输出灵敏度理论分析了系统的可观性。仿真结果表明,该方法可以同时实现平台系统42项误差系数的高精度标定与初始对准,有效地提高了系统的测量精度。     

基于虚拟检测函数下的IMM-UKF机动目标跟踪

为了有效提高对机动目标的跟踪效果,将无迹卡尔曼滤波(UKF)引入到交互多模型(IMM)算法框架内,加强状态估计精度;引入强跟踪滤波器(STF)到UKF算法中,避免对强机动目标的过大时间延迟和跟踪性能差的缺点;提出虚拟检测函数法,在跟踪过程中自适应调整"当前"统计模型的机动参数,加大模型集与目标真实运动模式匹配概率。仿真结果验证了改进算法的有效性。     

基于自适应小波阈值的SAR图像去噪算法

针对传统阈值去噪方法处理合成孔径雷达(Synthetic Aperture Radar,SAR)图像存在的失真,边缘模糊等问题,提出了一种自适应小波阈值算法。首先对经过对数变换后的SAR图像进行小波变换。然后利用自适应小波阈值对变换后的SAR图像高频部分进行去噪处理,去噪后再对其进行小波逆变换处理。最后再进行一次指数变换,达到去噪的目的。实验结果表明,该算法能够得到较好的去噪效果,并且还有效地解决了传统算法所带来的不足。     

一种小样本数脉冲信号的样本子图分选算法

针对交错的雷达脉冲信号中,辐射源脉冲样本数较少而无法统计脉间参数规律实现脉冲提取的问题,提出了一种基于自提取样本子图的全脉冲匹配分选算法。该算法利用全脉冲移位匹配搜索自相关函数极大峰值,序贯提取辐射源时间维样本子图,同时筛选出匹配脉冲,无需对脉冲特征参数做统计分析,因此,可实现小样本数雷达信号的脉冲提取。仿真实验表明在有脉冲漏失的信号环境中,算法处理样本数充足情况下的脉冲信号与传统多参数统计方法性能相当,而且能提取出小样本数的脉冲信号。     

战车火炮姿态测量系统原位标定技术和方案设计

为了降低姿态测量系统的启动漂移和标定误差,提高测量和导航精度,针对系统安装特色,提出了一种原位快速标定方案。分析了系统可观测性,利用等效陀螺信息推导了多位置原位标定方案;研究了最优标定和次优标定问题,分析了标定精度和坡度之间的关系;设计了一种针对系统安装特色的多位置编排方案,完成了大坡度范围下的原位标定。仿真结果表明:方案要求简单,应用范围广,能够完成大坡度范围下高精度快速标定,具有重要的工程应用价值。     

多因素空间近距离巡查效能评估建模

空间近距离巡查可以开展对目标的近距离观测和监视,用于识别目标类型和工作状态等,对在轨服务、博弈对抗等军民领域均具有重要意义。分析了空间巡查任务的一般形式,并以近距离巡查最常用的光学观测为对象,构建了巡查观测的约束模型和相对距离因素评估模型、有效观测时间评估模型、目标观测角度评估模型等多因素的观测任务效能评估模型,解决了面向巡查任务全过程的综合效能评估问题,可以更好地支撑基于评估结果的巡查策略设计和巡查轨迹优化等。基于数值算例分析和半实物仿真实验,对提出的评估模型进行了仿真验证,结果显示实际观测效果和模型评估结果一致。     

Resistance of grid steel-tube-confined concrete targets against projectile impact: Experimental investigation and analytical engineering model

Steel-tube-confined concrete (STCC) targets are provided with excellent anti-penetration performance over semi-infinite concrete (SIC) targets since the steel tube imposes passive restraint on the in-filled concrete during the penetration process. Grid STCC system with square steel tubes is a potential solution to protective structures. In this paper, experiments of 9-cell grid STCC targets penetrated by 12.7 mm Armor Piercing Projectile (APP) were performed. The influence of side length and thickness of steel tube, steel ratio and impact velocity on anti-penetration performance were taken into account. Additionally, single-cell square STCC targets were also designed and tested for comparison with the 9-cell grid STCC targets. Damage modes and parameters of the tested targets were measured and discussed. Moreover, the stiffness of radial confinement of grid STCC targets is achieved according to the elastic solution of infinite cylindrical shell in Winkler medium. Furthermore, the penetration resistance and depth of penetration (DOP) for grid STCC targets are obtained on the basis of the dynamic finite spherical cavity-expansion (FSCE) models including radial confinement effect. It is shown that the 9-cell grid STCC targets with optimal dimension match of thickness and side length of steel tube can reduce the DOP by about 17 % and 23 % in comparison with the SIC targets and single-cell square STCC targets, respectively, due to both the confinement of square steel tube to concrete in the impacted cell and the additional confinement of the surrounding cells to the impacted cell; the penetration resistance and DOP of the grid and cellular STCC targets with similar steel ratio is close, and thus the grid STCC targets with simpler manufacturing process and excellent in-plane expandability are preferred in engineering practice; moreover, the predicted results of DOP model based on the FSCE models agree well with the tested results with the maximum disparity less than 12 % and the proposed model is more applicable to the grid and cellular STCC targets with high radial confinement.     

A pixel-level local contrast measure for infrared small target detection

Infrared (IR) small target detection is one of the key technologies of infrared search and track (IRST) systems. Existing methods have some limitations in detection performance, especially when the target size is irregular or the background is complex. In this paper, we propose a pixel-level local contrast measure (PLLCM), which can subdivide small targets and backgrounds at pixel level simultaneously. With pixel-level segmentation, the difference between the target and the background becomes more obvious, which helps to improve the detection performance. First, we design a multiscale sliding window to quickly extract candidate target pixels. Then, a local window based on random walker (RW) is designed for pixel-level target segmentation. After that, PLLCM incorporating probability weights and scale constraints is proposed to accurately measure local contrast and suppress various types of background interference. Finally, an adaptive threshold operation is applied to separate the target from the PLLCM enhanced map. Experimental results show that the proposed method has a higher detection rate and a lower false alarm rate than the baseline algorithms, while achieving a high speed.