基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的剩余使用寿命预测框架

毋庸置疑,剩余使用寿命预测对于设备的健康管理越来越重要。近年来粒子滤波方法被越来越多地应用到设备寿命预测技术当中,这是因为粒子滤波方法能更好的解决非线性非高斯系统滤波问题,而且能够获得不确定度信息。但该方法的预测性能却过度依赖于预测模型,并且对于模型参数的初始分布也比较敏感,这在一定程度上限制了粒子滤波预测方法的进一步发展。本文针对基本粒子滤波预测方法的不足,提出了一种基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的通用预测框架,以历史观测数据的退化速率统计规律作为指导来跟踪目标数据的退化速率,实现对粒子滤波预测方法的简化。并将该方法用于轴承和锂离子电池的剩余使用寿命预测,验证了方法的有效性。     

Determination of burn‐in parameters and residual life for highly reliable products

Today, many products are designed and manufactured to function for a long period of time before they fail. Determining product reliability is a great challenge to manufacturers of highly reliable products with only a relatively short period of time available for internal life testing. In particular, it may be difficult to determine optimal burn‐in parameters and characterize the residual life distribution. A promising alternative is to use data on a quality characteristic (QC) whose degradation over time can be related to product failure. Typically, product failure corresponds to the first passage time of the degradation path beyond a critical value. If degradation paths can be modeled properly, one can predict failure time and determine the life distribution without actually observing failures. In this paper, we first use a Wiener process to describe the continuous degradation path of the quality characteristic of the product. A Wiener process allows nonconstant variance and nonzero correlation among data collected at different time points. We propose a decision rule for classifying a unit as normal or weak, and give an economic model for determining the optimal termination time and other parameters of a burn‐in test. Next, we propose a method for assessing the product's lifetime distribution of the passed units. The proposed methodologies are all based only on the product's initial observed degradation data. Finally, an example of an electronic product, namely contact image scanner (CIS), is used to illustrate the proposed procedure. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

可见光助Fenton体系降解芥子气机理研究

以联吡啶铁为催化剂,采用光助Fenton体系在可见光照射条件下（λ〉450nm）降解芥子气。考察了不同反应条件下的降解效果,通过EPR分析确定了反应过程中产生的高活性物种,利用GC—MS和NMR等方法分析了反应的产物,跟踪了反应过程中TOC的变化,并根据实验结果研究了芥子气光催化降解的反应机理。     

舰载火控系统的建模与仿真

探讨了建模与仿真技术在新型武器系统研制中的作用地位;介绍了WISE一体化建模／仿真开发环境及仿真软件,描述了新型舰载火控系统的建模与数字仿真方法,给出了采用分布交互式仿真(DIS)技术支持新型舰载火控系统进行效能评估的技术途径     

分布式防空C3I系统的分布交互仿真研究

分布式防空C3I系统具有分布性、交互性、抗毁性和资源共享性,是C3I系统的发展方向.在分析了分布式防空C3I系统和分布交互仿真功能、特点的基础上,利用分布仿真技术构建了分布式防空C3I系统的仿真平台.具体分析了在仿真平台中的各个仿真实体应实现的功能,并对在仿真中所采用的关键技术进行了论述.     

Designing a degradation experiment

Degradation experiments are widely used to assess the reliability of highly reliable products which are not likely to fail under the traditional life tests. In order to conduct a degradation experiment efficiently, several factors, such as the inspection frequency, the sample size, and the termination time, need to be considered carefully. These factors not only affect the experimental cost, but also affect the precision of the estimate of a product's lifetime. In this paper, we deal with the optimal design of a degradation experiment. Under the constraint that the total experimental cost does not exceed a predetermined budget, the optimal decision variables are solved by minimizing the variance of the estimated 100pth percentile of the lifetime distribution of the product. An example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. Finally, a simulation study is conducted to investigate the robustness of this proposed method. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 689–706, 1999     

退化速率跟踪粒子滤波在剩余使用寿命预测中的应用

毋庸置疑,剩余使用寿命预测对于设备的健康管理越来越重要。近年来粒子滤波方法被越来越多地应用到设备寿命预测技术当中,这是因为粒子滤波方法能更好地解决非线性非高斯系统滤波问题,而且能够获得不确定度信息。但该方法的预测性能却过度依赖于预测模型,并且对于模型参数的初始分布也比较敏感,这在一定程度上限制了粒子滤波预测方法的进一步发展。针对基本粒子滤波预测方法的不足,提出了一种基于退化速率跟踪粒子滤波的通用预测框架,以历史观测数据的退化速率统计规律作为指导来跟踪目标数据的退化速率,实现对粒子滤波预测方法的简化,并将该方法用于轴承和锂离子电池的剩余使用寿命预测,验证了方法的有效性。     

Priori information analysis of optocoupler accelerated degradation experiment based on failure mechanism verification test

The optocoupler is a weak link in the inertial navigation platform of a kind of guided munitions. It is necessary to use accelerated storage test to verify the storage life of long storage products. Especially for small sample products, it is very important to obtain prior information for the design and implementation of accelerated degradation test. In this paper, the optocoupler failure mechanism verification test is designed and the experimental results are analyzed and the prior information is obtained. The results show that optocouplers have two failure modes, one is sudden failure and the other is degradation failure; the maximum temperature stress of optocoupler can't exceed 140 °C; the increase of leakage current of optocoupler is caused by movable ions contaminating the LED chip. The surface leakage current is proportional to the adsorption amount. The increase of leakage current makes p-n junction tunneling effect occur which LEDs the failure of the optocoupler. The lifetime distribution model of the optocoupler is determined by the failure physics. The lifetime of the optocoupler is subject to the lognormal distribution. The degeneracy orbit of the optocoupler leakage current is described by a power law model. The estimated values of the orbital parameters are initially calculated and the parameters of its life distribution function are deduced. The above information lays a good foundation for the optimization design and data processing of the accelerated degradation experiment.     

基于分布式交互仿真系统的导调部研究

给出了基于分布式交互仿真系统的导调部体系结构,分析了导调部的功能,提出了其实现方案,最后给出一个基于装甲兵数字化部队作战仿真系统的具体应用实例。     

Designing a screening experiment for highly reliable products

Within a reasonable life‐testing time, how to improve the reliability of highly reliable products is one of the great challenges to today's manufacturers. By using a resolution III experiment together with degradation test, Tseng, Hamada, and Chiao (1995) presented an interesting case study of improving the reliability of fluorescent lamps. However, in conducting such an experiment, they did not address the problem of how to choose the optimal settings of variables, such as sample size, inspection frequency, and termination time for each run, which are influential to the correct identification of significant factors and the experimental cost. Assuming that the product's degradation paths satisfy Wiener processes, this paper proposes a systematic approach to the aforementioned problem. First, an intuitively appealing identification rule is proposed. Next, under the constraints of a minimum probability of correct decision and a maximum probability of incorrect decision of the proposed identification rule, the optimum test plan (including the determinations of inspection frequency, sample size, and termination time for each run) can be obtained by minimizing the total experimental cost. An example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 514–526, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10024