国防领域技术预警流程研究

技术预警是对技术突破和由此引起的军事、政治、经济和社会危机的预测,是从国家安全的根本利益出发,以保持己方军事优势、防止敌人"技术突袭"为宗旨的技术发展预测。研究回顾了国内外技术预警研究历程,从前期准备、预警清单、技术调查、分析评估等四个主要环节,全面分析国防领域技术预警的具体流程,为国防领域技术预警系统的构建与应用提供支撑。     

大力弘扬改革创新时代精神 加快建设世界一流高等教育院校

习主席在庆祝改革开放40周年大会上的重要讲话,是新时代改革开放再出发的宣言书和动员令。学习贯彻习主席重要讲话精神,关键要全面推进学校深化改革创新,深刻认清弘扬改革创新精神对于建设世界一流高等教育院校的重大意义,牢牢扭住全面深化改革创新的主攻方向,科学处理深化改革创新的重大关系,既以顽强的战略定力坚定不移深化改革,又运用科学的工作方法积极稳妥地推进改革。     

虚拟现实在心理战中的应用及展望

虚拟现实是用虚拟的情境模拟现实的世界,通过虚拟的多维空间,使用户体验到身临其境的感觉。文章通过深度剖析虚拟现实的历史沿革、发展现状与技术特点,结合其在军事中的运用以及发展前景,提出虚拟现实能够对心理战参战人员的心理训练、战场环境模拟和心理战效果评估提供借鉴和支持。     

Historical and Political Background to the Erosion of the Rule of Law and Human Rights During Sri Lanka’s Civil War and the Way Forward

The Sri Lankan Civil War (1983–2009) is regarded as a violent reflection of deepening divides along political and ethnic lines. During this civil war the Sri Lankan Government and its security forces have been implicated in unlawful killings carried out in a pervasive manner against civilians, whilst at the same time specifically targeting ethnic Tamils, humanitarian workers and journalists. The human rights of all citizens suffered as a result and ultimately led to the weakening of the rule of law. With the end of the civil war, the Sri Lankan Government has made little progress in providing accountability for wartime abuses. Its absence of and reluctance to ensure justice is seen as a logical culmination of decades of impunity. The importance of acknowledging historical behaviour and taking accountability for past violations will be discussed. In an analysis for paving the way to a new democracy in Sri Lanka, the main outcomes of this article are calls for accountability arising out of the government’s actions during the war; an investigation into the present state of human rights, the rule of law and finally; an examination into the political solution going forward to ensure a process of reconciliation and peaceful co-existence.     

Value management of diagnostic equipment with cancelation,no‐show,and emergency patients

Magnetic resonance imaging and other multifunctional diagnostic facilities, which are considered as scarce resources of hospitals, typically provide services to patients with different medical needs. This article examines the admission policies during the appointment management of such facilities. We consider two categories of patients: regular patients who are scheduled in advance through an appointment system and emergency patients with randomly generated demands during the workday that must be served as soon as possible. According to the actual medical needs of patients, regular patients are segmented into multiple classes with different cancelation rates, no‐show probabilities, unit value contributions, and average service times. Management makes admission decisions on whether or not to accept a service request from a regular patient during the booking horizon to improve the overall value that could be generated during the workday. The decisions should be made by considering the cancelation and no‐show behavior of booked patients as well as the emergency patients that would have to be served because any overtime service would lead to higher costs. We studied the optimal admission decision using a continuous‐time discrete‐state dynamic programming model. Identifying an optimal policy for this discrete model is analytically intractable and numerically inefficient because the state is multidimensional and infinite. We propose to study a deterministic counterpart of the problem (i.e., the fluid control problem) and to develop a time‐based fluid policy that is shown to be asymptotically optimal for large‐scale problems. Furthermore, we propose to adopt a mixed fluid policy that is developed based on the information obtained from the fluid control problem. Numerical experiments demonstrate that this improved policy works effectively for small‐scale problems. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 287–304, 2016     

Resequencing with parallel queues to minimize the maximum number of items in the overflow area

This article treats an elementary optimization problem, where an inbound stream of successive items is to be resequenced with the help of multiple parallel queues in order to restore an intended target sequence. Whenever early items block the one item to be currently released into the target sequence, they are withdrawn from their queue and intermediately stored in an overflow area until their actual release is reached. We aim to minimize the maximum number of items simultaneously stored in the overflow area during the complete resequencing process. We met this problem in industry practice at a large German automobile producer, who has to resequence containers with car seats prior to the assembly process. We formalize the resulting resequencing problem and provide suited exact and heuristic solution algorithms. In our computational study, we also address managerial aspects such as how to properly avoid the negative effects of sequence alterations. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 401–415, 2016     

基于激励机制的装备采办风险总量控制

针对装备采办中的风险总量控制,提出一种激励方式来提高承包商的积极性。在单目标风险控制模型的基础上,建立了多目标风险控制模型,推导出了激励机制下风险控制的最优合同公式。对激励机制中存在的两类错误进行了理论分析和实例验证,得出了两类错误对收益的影响,并在成本控制中得到了应用,有效地提高了装备采办的质量和效率,为军方决策者在装备采办中提供了合理的参考依据。     

基于多目标的雷达组网传感器资源管理算法

在雷达组网系统的多目标跟踪过程中,当目标数量过多时,由于传感器资源不足,无法使用传统传感器的管理方法进行资源分配,且运算时间过长,不满足工程实际需求。针对以上问题,提出了一种新的多传感器多目标跟踪任务快速分配算法,该算法将跟踪目标个数和跟踪目标精度作为优化目标,首先按照设定的分配准则对传感器进行一次分配,最大化跟踪目标个数;然后利用一种基于传感器排序的启发式传感器分配方法进行二次分配,通过控制跟踪目标的协方差水平,使目标的跟踪精度尽量接近期望值。仿真结果表明,该算法能够在较短的时间内对多传感器进行有效快速地分配,既跟踪了更多的目标,又达到了期望目标的跟踪精度,并且在一定程度上控制资源消耗,减少系统的总耗能。     

基于反步法的高超声速飞行器终端滑模控制

为了使高超声速飞行器在再入过程中完成姿态控制,在反步法的基础上将模糊自适应和终端滑模控制相结合设计控制器。对于姿态角动态,使用反步法和模糊自适应设计虚拟控制律;而对于角速率动态,利用终端滑模方法设计控制器,能够有效提高系统鲁棒性。稳定性分析说明所提方法可以保证系统状态的一致渐进有界性。     

基于察打任务的无人机作战效能评估

首先根据时敏目标打击的特点,分析了察打任务模式下的察打一体无人机的作战使用。然后对评估体系中察打一体无人机的侦察能力与打击能力相关性进行了分析,同时将任务可执行度作为无人机效能评估的一项动态权衡标准,建立了基于察打任务的无人机效能评估模型,并基于效能指标体系建立了各分项模型。最后通过算例验证了模型的可行性。