The 1983 Nuclear Crisis – Lessons for Deterrence Theory and Practice

This article distills insights for the scholarship of deterrence by examining the 1983 nuclear crisis – the moment of maximum danger of the late Cold War. Important contributions notwithstanding, our understanding of this episode still has caveats, and a significant pool of theoretical lessons for strategic studies remain to be learned. Utilizing newly available sources, this article suggests an alternative interpretation of Soviet and US conduct. It argues that the then US deterrence strategy almost produced Soviet nuclear overreaction by nearly turning a NATO exercise into a prelude to a preventive Soviet attack. Building on historical findings, this article offers insights about a mechanism for deterrence effectiveness evaluation, recommends establishing a structure responsible for this endeavor, and introduces a new theoretical term to the strategic studies lexicon – a ‘culminating point of deterrence’.     

Less than Meets the Eye

Observers of United States (US) interventions have almost universally characterized the 1994 Haiti intervention as multilateral, a model for how international cooperation can achieve common security goals. A closer analysis of the intervention reveals that the planning and execution of the intervention were almost entirely unilateral and therefore cost the US few if any of the theoretical costs of coalition warfare, including interoperability and policy compromise. Mapped onto the unilateral strategy and operation of the intervention, however, was a multilateral diplomatic effort that secured United Nations Security Council authorization and provided a cover for an intervention that the US had already planned and intended to execute with or without that authorization. That the US sought a multilateral cover for an intervention that it could easily accomplish unilaterally shows the importance of two factors: A domestic audience that opposed unilateral peacekeeping but would accept using US resources as part of a broader multilateral operation, and a local population that would be more responsive to a multilateral coalition than a use of force that was perceived to be unilateral. The Haiti intervention shows that the determinants of success in operations other than war are as much political as military. When the US already has overwhelming military superiority vis-à-vis its adversary, building military coalitions becomes as much about enlisting political support as aggregating material capability.     

The Israel Defense Forces as an epistemic authority: An intellectual challenge in the reality of the Israeli – Palestinian conflict

The changes in the nature of warfare and its transformation toward Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) intrastate conflict have challenged the patterns of interaction between the political and the military echelons in Israel. It seems that the political echelon's superiority is maintained at the institutional and formal levels, but on the substantive level, which demands relying on knowledge and systematic staff work, the political echelon's position is weakened and loses its validity.

Introducing the military echelon in Israel as an epistemic authority regarding the violent confrontation and the main outlines of the military knowledge development process might clarify why the absence of the required dialogue between the echelons and the weakness of the intellectual effort increased the military's influence over the shaping of Israeli conflict-management strategy. The argument's validity and its explanatory power can be found relevant for other countries whose militaries are deeply involved in the management of LIC.     

面向服务的海战场指挥信息系统体系结构框架

一体化联合作战和基于信息系统的体系作战对海战场指挥信息系统提出了更高的要求.从面向服务的海战场指挥信息系统构建需求出发,在军事信息服务定义的基础上,利用SOA和P2P设计了海战场指挥信息系统体系结构的物理框架和功能框架,给出了各框架的组成和结构,并与已有框架作了对比分析,结果表明所提的框架更加全面、可靠和灵活,为开展面向服务的指挥信息系统研究打下了坚实的基础.     

新一代指挥信息系统中的语义网应用能力分析

随着现代战争形式的演变,提升指挥信息系统能力的关键在于信息处理.语义网是一种先进的信息表示方法,能够有效地提升机器的信息理解和处理能力.简要介绍了语义网技术的组成和本质能力,并结合美军的研究实例,分析了其在新一代指挥信息系统中的应用能力,指出了发展机遇和挑战,并对未来研究提出了建议.     

自由飘浮空间机器人准刚性分解运动轨迹控制与仿真

研究轨道空间机器人操作时,基座处于自由飘浮状态的手爪准刚性运动直角坐标轨迹的分解运动控制,重点分析了广义雅可比矩阵的计算,并进行了空间单手３—ＤＯＦ的仿真,该方法可相应推广到开链多手。     

Efficient distributions of arms‐control inspection effort

A rule that constrains decision‐makers is enforced by an inspector who is supplied with a fixed level of inspection resources—inspection personnel, equipment, or time. How should the inspector distribute its inspection resources over several independent inspectees? What minimum level of resources is required to deter all violations? Optimal enforcement problems occur in many contexts; the motivating application for this study is the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in support of the Treaty on the Non‐Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Using game‐theoretic models, the resource level adequate for deterrence is characterized in a two‐inspectee problem with inspections that are imperfect in the sense that violations can be missed. Detection functions, or probabilities of detecting a violation, are assumed to be increasing in inspection resources, permitting optimal allocations over inspectees to be described both in general and in special cases. When detection functions are convex, inspection effort should be concentrated on one inspectee chosen at random, but when they are concave it should be spread deterministicly over the inspectees. Our analysis provides guidance for the design of arms‐control verification operations, and implies that a priori constraints on the distribution of inspection effort can result in significant inefficiencies. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

一种新型的超声换能器驱动与回波检测电路设计

通过对超声换能器的工作原理分析,设计了一种新型的超声换能器驱动与回波检测电路。驱动电路由功率放大器、脉冲变压器及一定的补偿电路组成;回波检测电路由前置放大器、带通滤波器和自动电平控制电路组成。试验结果显示,此电路性能良好,能明显提高超声换能器的测距范围。     

囿于控制多边形的NURBS拐点分析与控制

从变形的观点出发,首先研究了一般平面参数曲线变形过程中产生拐点的充分必要条件以及判定拐点的一个泛函方程。在此基础上,给出了研究非凸控制多边形NURBS曲线拐点的方法,特别研究了正则单拐、双拐多边形NURBS曲线拐点的分布问题,得到了分析与控制相应曲线拐点的条件和判据。本文的结果可应用于调节与控制曲线形状的算法设计,也可指导CAD造型工程师的交互设计。     

质量矩拦截器机动能力估算

首先介绍了质量矩拦截器的概念和特点,提出建立过载的速度是质量矩拦截器机动性的关键因素。通过建立简化的模型,得到了质量矩拦截器在俯仰平面内运动时建立攻角响应时间的解析表达式,并在此基础上进行了初步分析,表明质量矩拦截器具有很强的机动能力。