A NEW STANDARD FOR PREEMPTIVE MILITARY ACTION AGAINST WMD THREATS

International law clearly requires an imminent threat of attack as a justification for the preemptive use of military force. However, the standard definition of an imminent threat was derived centuries before the development of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons or ballistic missiles and other delivery systems that can reach their targets in a matter of minutes. Any use of force to alleviate threats posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD) prior to tactical warning of the actual launch of such weapons falls into the legally and ethically controversial category of “anticipatory self-defense,” leaving decision makers potentially liable to prosecution for war crimes. Effective and ethical enforcement of nonproliferation therefore demands a standard for imminence of threat broad enough to allow military action as a last resort but sufficiently restrictive to prohibit indiscriminate action against suspected WMD programs. Following a critical review of selected literature and cases on preemption, the author proposes a new standard for preemptive military action: the existence of operational WMD, or a clandestine program to develop WMD, in contravention of international law. The author discusses the implications of this new proposed standard, which at the time of writing would permit preemptive attack against WMD-armed terrorist groups but prohibit it against all states except Iran and possibly North Korea.     

BEYOND DECLARATIONS OF INTENT

This essay explores the obligations arising from the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organised Crime, signed in Palermo, Italy at the end of 2000. It also discusses the initiatives required to prepare the legal system and related infrastructure of Zimbabwe for its implementation. Zimbabwe joined more than 120 other countries in signing the Palermo convention, but has not yet ratified it. The ratification would enshrine the latest initiatives to develop effective strategies against transnational organised crime. The Palermo convention makes demands on the laws and institutions of states parties which could enhance their capacity to confront organised crime. Ratification signifies competence to implement the prescribed obligations, which can only occur after introducing suitable domestic laws, and adopting the necessary administrative mechanisms. The required reforms are bound to have certain policy and legislative implications for Zimbabwe. Regional initiatives complementary to the Palermo convention are expected to catalyse positive changes in Zimbabwe's response mechanisms.     

CORRUPTION,PERCEPTION AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

Bribery undermines human development and a transition to stable democratic rule. It props up illegitimate regimes as corporations bid for contracts by bribing, in a seeming race to the bottom. The world's wealthy are slowly waking up to this and criminalising this scandalous practice of bribing foreign public officials. However, such measures, if enforced, need to be combined with domestic anti-corruption strategies in the South. If this opportunity is missed, the risk of investing private capital in marginalised economies perceived to be highly corrupt is further upped, making investment-driven economic growth possibly even less unattainable.     

Switching costs,dynamic uncertainty,and buyer–seller relationships

We analyze strategic relationships between buyers and sellers in markets with switching costs and dynamic uncertainty by investigating the scenario wherein a representative buyer trades with two foreign sellers located in the same foreign country. We show that, under exchange rate uncertainty, switching costs may lead to switching equilibria where both sellers co‐exist in the market with the buyer, or no‐switching equilibria where either seller captures the market. The presence of exchange rate uncertainty facilitates competition by allowing the sellers to co‐exist in the market with the buyer. However, if the level of uncertainty is beyond a threshold, the only viable equilibria are those where one of the sellers captures the market. Further, depending on the level of exchange rate uncertainty and the sellers' variable costs, switching costs may either raise or lower the level of prices in long‐term contracts between the buyer and the sellers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Poland's national potential and its international position within the European Union – research remarks

This article examines Poland's national potential and its international position within the European Union (EU) with respect to security issues. It presents research results based on a comparison of Poland's national potential as it relates to other EU countries, which is useful when evaluating Poland's power within the EU. The article also evaluates Poland's crisis potential, i.e. it identifies those factors that may potentially be treated as threats to national and regional security. Finally, it enables the identification of challenges to Poland's security in the second decade of the twenty-first century. The research is conducted according to a multidimensional comparative analysis, which is perceived by the author as the best available to measure a country's power despite its weaknesses.     

美军战略传播的发展特点及启示

美军通过战略传播的整合力量对其形象建构进行了卓有成效的探索与实践。在分析梳理美军战略传播概念的提出背景及其演进过程的基础上,总结归纳了美军实施战略传播的特点。同时,结合分析对外宣传中面临的问题与挑战,借鉴美军战略传播的有益做法,提出了改进的建议与措施。     

Artificial intelligence & future warfare: implications for international security

Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) suggest that this emerging technology will have a deterministic and potentially transformative influence on military power, strategic competition, and world politics more broadly. After the initial surge of broad speculation in the literature related to AI this article provides some much needed specificity to the debate. It argues that left unchecked the uncertainties and vulnerabilities created by the rapid proliferation and diffusion of AI could become a major potential source of instability and great power strategic rivalry. The article identifies several AI-related innovations and technological developments that will likely have genuine consequences for military applications from a tactical battlefield perspective to the strategic level.     

美国退出《中导条约》与俄美关系发展走向

2018年10月,美国宣布单方面退出《中导条约》。《中导条约》是美苏两国在冷战后期达成的,并得到了切实执行的条约,对于维护冷战后全球战略平衡发挥了至关重要的作用。冷战后,俄美曾经企图将《中导条约》多边化,构建俄美新型战略关系,但最终反目成仇,使得俄美关系严重倒退,并迈入新的相互战略遏制的时代。     

From Westphalian Failure to Heterarchic Governance in MENA: The Case of Syria

Abstract

The problematic export of the Westphalian system to MENA is examined, taking Syria as exemplar. The export model is juxtaposed to actual non-lineal trajectories, semi-sovereignty and hybrid or failing states. This is manifested in post-uprising Syria in failing statehood, fragmented and overlapping governance, permeable and collapsing borders, the loss of sovereignty to trans-state movements, “competitive regime-building” between the Asad regime and jihadist warlords, and “competitive interventionism” by external powers filling the governance vacuum with their own proxies. The result is heterarchic zones of limited statehood in which state sovereignty is contested by both international (supra-state) penetration and sub-state fragmentation.     

提升我军话语国际影响力需要过好四关

国防话语的一个重要支柱就是军事话语,军事话语是一个国家军事软实力和军队形象建设的重要体现。新时代呼唤强有力的军事话语。习近平总书记关于对外宣传工作以及国防和军队现代化的重要论述为提升我军话语国际影响力、为建构我军国际形象指明了方向、制定了战略、设计了战术、明确了任务、确定了节点。如何切实提升我军话语的国际影响力,成为新形势下实现中国梦和强军目标的时代课题。从具体操作层面,提升我军话语国际影响力需要过好思维立场、语言文化、业务素养和法规制度四个关。