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The aim of this article is to evaluate how French Major Conventional Weapons (MCW) exports impact on the conflict intensity of recipient countries. The recent increase in French arms exports seems to contradict the French political discourse on the promotion of regional stability. We run zero-inflated ordered probit model in order to analyze the role of the arms trade on the intensity of civil conflicts in 144 countries from 1992 to 2014, using SIPRI and UCDP/PRIO data. Our results suggest that French MCW exports tended not to exacerbate intrastate conflicts during this period. This finding is robust to changes in the empirical framework. We propose two lines of explanations: France seems to be prone to choosing partners that respect human rights and selling more ‘defense-oriented’ MCW than the rest of the world. 相似文献
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Alexis Henshaw June Eric-Udorie Hannah Godefa Kathryn Howley Cat Jeon Elise Sweezy 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2019,30(6-7):1089-1116
ABSTRACTRecent efforts aimed at understanding women’s contributions to nonstate armed groups have produced large-scale data sets on female combatants (Wood and Thomas 2017) and more limited data on women’s roles as supporters and leaders in armed groups (Henshaw 2016; 2017, Loken 2018). The present study aims to build on this literature by providing new data on the scope of women’s leadership in insurgent groups. While existing quantitative literature has focused mostly on the experience of female combatants, we argue that the presence of women in leadership roles is crucial to understanding how gender might influence the outcomes of insurgency. We introduce new data on over 200 insurgent groups active since World War II. While our analysis confirms earlier small-sample work demonstrating women’s presence in leadership roles, a qualitative analysis reveals that leadership is often gendered–revealing patterns of tokenization and tracking women to low-prestige leadership roles. At the same time, our findings challenge past research on jihadist organizations, showing limited expansion in the authority of women. 相似文献
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Kelemework Tafere Reda 《African Security Review》2013,22(3):270-278
Based on a literature review, this article examines the dynamics in pastoral systems, natural resource conservation and conflict in the drylands of East Africa. It argues that, in the context of East Africa, pastoralism and biodiversity conservation in general are distinct forms of land use that are complementary rather than competitive. The present state of natural resource degradation in the drylands is explained in terms of factors related to ecological and demographic pressures, land use conflicts and inefficient land administration policies. When the customary pastoral institutions of land administration and resource management are threatened, the problem of degradation is further exacerbated and violent conflicts occur among multiple resource users, including pastoralists, farmers and the state. The article recommends the revitalisation, empowerment and recognition of pastoral institutions in a way that ensures effective synergy between the formal and customary structures of resource governance. 相似文献
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Yang‐Ming Chang 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(3):149-169
This paper presents a simple model to characterize explicitly the role that an intervening third party plays in raising the cost of rebellion in an intrastate conflict. Extending the Gershenson‐Grossman (2000) framework of conflict in a two‐stage game to the case involving outside intervention in a three‐stage game as in Chang et al. (2007b), we examine the conditions under which an outside party optimally intervenes such that (i) the strength of the rebel group is diminished or (ii) the rebellion is deterred altogether. We also find conditions in which a third party optimally intervenes but at a level insufficient to deter rebellion. Such behavior, which improves the incumbent government’s potential to succeed in conflict, is overlooked in some conflict studies evaluating the effectiveness of intervention. One policy implication of the model is that an increase in the strength of inter‐governmental trade partnerships increases the likelihood that third‐party intervention deters rebellion. 相似文献
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Economic reconstruction typically takes place after the end of war. Yet recently, economic reconstruction has been viewed as a means to ‘win hearts and minds’ during ongoing conflict. Drawing on a variety of reconstruction experiences from Afghanistan and Iraq, we identify four ‘reconstruction traps’ that result from the incentives and constraints faced by actors involved in economic reconstruction during ongoing conflict. These traps include: 1. the credible commitment trap, 2. the knowledge trap, 3. the political economy trap, and 4. the bureaucracy trap. Avoiding these traps is critical for successful economic reconstruction; and we discuss potential strategies for doing so. 相似文献
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为充分了解当前军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候的成因,并对其发生原因进行有重点的预防和对事件发生概率的精确预测,首先建立事故树模型,对其原因进行分析;总结导致其发生的基本事件,计算事故树模型的最小割集和各个基本事件的结构重要度;其次对军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候的发生概率进行合理的取值,得出基本事件的概率重要度,指出基本事件发生概率对顶事件发生概率的影响;最后构建军民航飞行冲突、危险接近事故征候贝叶斯网络模型,计算中间事件的条件概率和顶事件发生概率,并与实际结果进行对比,验证方法可行性。 相似文献
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针对现代军事冲突的不确定性和模糊性,用直觉模糊数来表示军事冲突中的局中人对另一局中人在结局空间上的偏好认知,建立了军事冲突的模糊超对策模型,并对实际军事冲突中的各级指挥员对对方策略集和结局偏好的群体认知,应用D-S证据理论进行了有效融合。最后,通过实例分析说明了文中所提出方法的有效性和合理性。 相似文献
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郭循超 《中国人民武装警察部队学院学报》2010,26(9):15-17
无直接利益冲突群体性事件有5个特点,即间接性、特定性、辐射性、关联性、暴力性.引发无直接利益冲突群体性事件的原因主要有4个方面：一是我国正处于社会转型期,贫富差距突出,矛盾多发;二是基层公共权力机关公信力下降和利益诉求渠道阻塞;三是法律意识淡薄和社会认同感降低;四是心理匿名感和信息的快速传播.研究应对无直接利益冲突群体性事件对策具有重要的现实意义. 相似文献