美军采办项目的采办策略分析

采办策略是美军针对具体采办项目强制规定的覆盖整个项目寿命周期的纲领性文件,对于保障在资源限制条件下达成项目采办目标具有重要的意义。本文首先分析了采办策略的概念,随后研究了采办策略的主要内容、与采办管理周期的匹配要求,最后提出了对我军装备采办改革的启示。     

美军无人机集群项目发展

近几年来,无人机集群技术在美军多个方面的推动下,引起了全世界的热切关注。文章简要总结了美军无人机集群发展现状,梳理了美军开展无人机集群技术的初衷,并分析认为美军数量型无人机集群发展战略不完全适用于现阶段我军军情。文中给出了我国现阶段发展无人机集群的思路,这对全面认识无人机集群的优势、明晰我军无人机集群技术发展方向具有一定的参考价值。     

增强军校本科学员指挥谋略能力研究——基于计算机兵棋系统

对指挥谋略进行概念分析,确定基于计算机兵棋系统的指挥谋略训练内容;明确计算机兵棋推演的一般步骤和注意事项;以联军2004年11月"破晓"行动为例运用计算机兵棋系统进行指挥谋略训练。研究表明,基于计算机兵棋系统运用战例研究可以成为增强军校本科学员指挥谋略的训练模式。     

分布式计算环境下的栅格数据存储策略

针对传统的栅格数据存储策略不能满足分布式计算环境下粗粒度数据访问需求,应对海量栅格数据计算时效率低下的问题,结合分布式文件系统的存储特点,同时考虑地图代数算子在Map/Reduce阶段以栅格瓦片为单位的计算特点,提出一种基于Hadoop分布式文件系统的栅格瓦片存储策略。围绕栅格数据瓦片分割、压缩瓦片数据组织与存储、分布式文件输入输出接口改进等方面对该存储策略加以实现,并使用基于该存储策略的地图代数局部算子的分布式计算流程加以验证。理论分析与实验结果表明,该策略能够显著提高分布式计算环境下空间分析算子的运算速度。     

Flexible capacity strategy in an asymmetric oligopoly market with competition and demand uncertainty

This article studies flexible capacity strategy (FCS) under oligopoly competition with uncertain demand. Each firm utilizes either the FCS or inflexible capacity strategy (IFCS). Flexible firms can postpone their productions until observing the actual demand, whereas inflexible firms cannot. We formulate a new asymmetrical oligopoly model for the problem, and obtain capacity and production decisions of the firms at Nash equilibrium. It is interesting to verify that cross‐group competition determines the capacity allocation between the two groups of firms, while intergroup competition determines the market share within each group. Moreover, we show that the two strategies coexist among firms only when cost differentiation is medium. Counterintuitively, flexible firms benefit from increasing production cost when the inflexible competition intensity is sufficiently high. This is because of retreat of inflexible firms, flexibility effect, and the corresponding high price. We identify conditions under which FCS is superior than IFCS. We also demonstrate that flexible firms benefit from increasing demand uncertainty. However, when demand variance is not very large, flexible firms may be disadvantaged. We further investigate the effects of cross‐group and intergroup competition on individual performance of the firms. We show that as flexible competition intensity increases, inflexible firms are mainly affected by the cross‐group competition first and then by the intergroup competition, whereas flexible firms are mainly affected by the intergroup competition. Finally, we examine endogenous flexibility and identify its three drivers: cost parameters, cross‐group competition, and intergroup competition. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 117–138, 2017     

Price and capacity decisions of service systems with boundedly rational customers

We consider price and capacity decisions for a profit‐maximizing service provider in a single server queueing system, in which customers are boundedly rational and decide whether to join the service according to a multinomial logit model. We find two potential price‐capacity pair solutions for the first‐order condition of the profit‐maximizing problem. Profit is maximized at the solution with a larger capacity, but minimized at the smaller one. We then consider a dynamically adjusting capacity system to mimic a real‐life situation and find that the maximum can be reached only when the initial service rate is larger than a certain threshold; otherwise, the system capacity and demand shrink to zero. We also find that a higher level of customers’ bounded rationality does not necessarily benefit a firm, nor does it necessarily allow service to be sustained. We extend our analysis to a setting in which customers’ bounded rationality level is related to historical demand and find that such a setting makes service easier to sustain. Finally we find that bounded rationality always harms social welfare.     

Global strategic studies: a manifesto

This contribution reflects on the state of strategic studies today and the criticism it has received in recent years, as being outdated and irrelevant. The authors formulate some premises for reinvigorating this field of inquiry by widening its scope and research agenda to do more justice to the wide variety of actors, perspectives and practices observable in the enterprise of strategy in our contemporary globalised world.     

Enhancing Political Cohesion in NATO during the 1950s or: How it Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the (Tactical) Bomb

This article argues that the perceived need by NATO to nurture political cohesion within the Alliance during the 1950s resulted in the adoption of strategic concepts that were out-of-step with the military environment in which it was operating. It maintains that the Alliance acquiesced to American leadership on nuclear issues which led to the development of tactical nuclear capabilities at the expense of conventional war-fighting capabilities for the defence of the European Central Front. This resulted in a strategic concept that enhanced political cohesion but was militarily unviable.     

考虑逃逸复飞队列饱和度的舰载机回收策略

从舰载机回收问题的应用实际出发,考虑待回收舰载机战损、飞行员受伤等有别于民机的独特性因素,基于舰载机典型回收模式提出一种考虑逃逸复飞队列饱和度的回收策略。在减轻着舰指挥官和通信系统工作负担、降低舰载机飞行员操作强度、提升舰载机飞行安全性的基础上,考虑到舰载机回收是一个概率事件,通过概率分析动态设计专用回收点,解决了逃逸复飞队列与正常待机队列中舰载机抢夺回收点资源的问题,为舰载机回收提供了一个新的解决方案。     

舰载反潜直升机吊放声纳区域反潜策略建模

为提高舰载反潜直升机吊放声纳区域反潜搜索作战效能,对舰载反潜直升机吊放声纳区域反潜搜索策略问题进行了建模。根据潜艇目标位置信息的不确定性,研究了潜艇目标位置信息的概率分布函数,采用Markov状态转移概率矩阵描述了潜艇目标位置信息变化的方法。其次,给出了基于贝叶斯理论的潜艇目标信息概率分布函数更新公式。再次,推导了舰载反潜直升机吊放声纳区域反潜最优策略,给出了舰载直升机吊放声纳区域反潜搜索算法。最后给出了典型案例,验证了反潜搜索策略的有效性。研究成果可为舰载反潜直升机吊放声纳区域反潜提供决策依据。