基于参数稳态判定的两阶段序贯仿真分析策略

两阶段序贯分析方法是仿真(模拟)实验研究中的一种常用方法,它虽然可以通过控制实验给出符合精度要求的结果数据,但以其现有形式有时却无法避免冗余计算的存在和实验过早终止的可能.在回顾了现有终态仿真解算终止策略特点的基础上,分析了所需样本总数的估计值与当前可用样本间的变化关系,提出了一种基于参数稳态判定的改进两阶段序贯方法....     

Coherent systems based on sequential order statistics

The sequential order statistics (SOS) are a good way to model the lifetimes of the components in a system when the failure of a component at time t affects the performance of the working components at this age t. In this article, we study properties of the lifetimes of the coherent systems obtained using SOS. Specifically, we obtain a mixture representation based on the signature of the system. This representation is used to obtain stochastic comparisons. To get these comparisons, we obtain some ordering properties for the SOS, which in this context represent the lifetimes of k‐out‐of‐n systems. In particular, we show that they are not necessarily hazard rate ordered. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Periodic review inventory management with contingent use of two freight modes with fixed costs

We study a stochastic inventory model of a firm that periodically orders a product from a make‐to‐order manufacturer. Orders can be shipped by a combination of two freight modes that differ in lead‐times and costs, although orders are not allowed to cross. Placing an order as well as each use of each freight mode has a fixed and a quantity proportional cost. The decision of how to allocate units between the two freight modes utilizes information about demand during the completion of manufacturing. We derive the optimal freight mode allocation policy, and show that the optimal policy for placing orders is not an (s,S) policy in general. We provide tight bounds for the optimal policy that can be calculated by solving single period problems. Our analysis enables insights into the structure of the optimal policy specifying the conditions under which it simplifies to an (s,S) policy. We characterize the best (s,S) policy for our model, and through extensive numerical investigation show that its performance is comparable with the optimal policy in most cases. Our numerical study also sheds light on the benefits of the dual freight model over the single freight models. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

新媒介：当代大学生思想政治教育的有效途径

随着信息技术的迅猛发展,新媒介对大学生的影响日益深刻。新媒介具有对大学生进行思想政治教育的先天优势,但新媒介环境下的思想政治教育危机也不容忽视。我们应当扬长避短,积极探索利用新媒介开展思想政治教育的新路径,不断提高思想政治教育的针对性和有效性。     

消防部队灭火救援行动中的灾情信息需求与分析

灾情信息是灭火及应急救援行动的关键因素,在救援行动中发挥重要作用。介绍了灾情信息的基本概念、具体内容和表现形式,详细分析了消防部队在灭火和应急救援行动中灾情信息的应用现状和发展方向,并对灾情信息的应用提出了部分改进建议,为灭火和应急救援的信息化建设提供技术支持。     

石化企业火灾事故原因调查方法和技术研究

根据石油化工企业生产特点,阐述了石油化工企业火灾现场特点、火灾事故调查的重点内容、调查采取的方法和技术以及事故调查当中的注意事项,为开展好石油化工企业火灾调查工作提供参考。     

我国周边安全形势对边防工作的影响及应对策略

边防工作作为国防的重要组成部分,涉外性强,受周边安全形势影响大。当前,我国的边防工作既面·l盏着难得的发展机遇,同时更要直面各种挑战。分析周边安全环境对我国边防的影响,可以使我们更好地认清形势,趋利避害,抓住机遇,充分发挥职能作用,确保边防安全稳定。     

灭火初战应把握的关键环节

灭火作战初战是整个灭火战斗的前期战,它的成功与否直接影响到整个灭火战斗的成败。重点论述了如何把握初战的火情侦查、火场救人、控制火势等三个关键环节,以期对基层广大指战员有所指导。     

Quantifying the performance effects of idle time utilization in multiserver systems

In many practical multiserver queueing systems, servers not only serve randomly arriving customers but also work on the secondary jobs with infinite backlog during their idle time. In this paper, we propose a c‐server model with a two‐threshold policy, denoted by (e d), to evaluate the performance of this class of systems. With such a policy, when the number of idle servers has reached d (<c), then e (<d) idle agents will process secondary jobs. These e servers keep working on the secondary jobs until they find waiting customers exist in the system at a secondary job completion instant. Using the matrix analytic method, we obtain the stationary performance measures for evaluating different (e, d) policies. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

Constrained minimax optimization of continuous search efforts for the detection of a stationary target

Analytical resolution of search theory problems, as formalized by B.O. Koopman, may be applied with some model extension to various resource management issues. However, a fundamental prerequisite is the knowledge of the prior target density. Though this assumption has the definite advantage of simplicity, its drawback is clearly that target reactivity is not taken into account. As a preliminary step towards reactive target study stands the problem of resource planning under a min–max game context. This paper is related to Nakai's work about the game planning of resources for the detection of a stationary target. However, this initial problem is extended by adding new and more general constraints, allowing a more realistic modeling of the target and searcher behaviors. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007