Statistical equivalency and optimality of simple step‐stress accelerated test plans for the exponential distribution

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is commonly used to obtain reliability information about a product in a timely manner. Several stress loading designs have been proposed and recent research interests have emerged concerning the development of equivalent ALT plans. Step‐stress ALT (SSALT) is one of the most commonly used stress loadings because it usually shortens the test duration and reduces the number of required test units. This article considers two fundamental questions when designing a SSALT and provides formal proofs in answer to each. Namely: (1) can a simple SSALT be designed so that it is equivalent to other stress loading designs? (2) when optimizing a multilevel SSALT, does it degenerate to a simple SSALT plan? The answers to both queries, under certain reasonable model assumptions, are shown to be a qualified YES. In addition, we provide an argument to support the rationale of a common practice in designing a SSALT, that is, setting the higher stress level as high as possible in a SSALT plan. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

自润滑关节轴承磨损寿命模型

自润滑关节轴承寿命的计算和预测对于提高装备的运行安全性具有重大的意义。针对自润滑关节轴承磨损寿命计算和预测的需求,本文从自润滑关节轴承的磨损机理出发,依据材料摩擦磨损理论,采用组合磨损计算方法分别建立了自润滑推力关节轴承和向心关节轴承的磨损寿命模型。该模型综合考虑了影响自润滑关节轴承寿命的磨损机理、结构特点、工作特性以及零部件功能要求等因素,特别是将结构参数和功能要求显式的在模型中表示,可直接反映结构变化和功能要求对自润滑关节轴承磨损寿命的影响。计算实例和分析结果表明：相对目前使用的自润滑关节轴承经验计算公式,本文模型计算结果准确,理论依据更充分,对于特殊结构和功能的特种自润滑关节轴承适用性更好。     

美国“深绿”计划对指挥控制的影响

“深绿”计划是美国国防部高级研究计划署为满足现代战争对快速决策的需求而提出的.“深绿”计划的目的是将仿真嵌入指挥控制系统,利用仿真支持正在进行的军事行动.通过对深绿体系结构、实现深绿的关键技术以及深绿实施方案的分析,重点研究了深绿计划对指挥控制的影响.该研究力图为我军作战指挥决策支持系统的建设提供方法和技术上的启发及借鉴.     

Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions with interval censored samples

This article studies the problem of designing Bayesian sampling plans (BSP) with interval censored samples. First, an algorithm for deriving the conventional BSP is proposed. The BSP is shown to possess some monotonicity. Based on the BSP and using the property of monotonicity, a new sampling plan modified by the curtailment procedure is proposed. The resulting curtailed Bayesian sampling plan (CBSP) can reduce the duration time of life test experiment, and it is optimal in the sense that its associated Bayes risk is smaller than the Bayes risk of the BSP if the cost of the duration time of life test experiment is considered. A numerical example to compute the Bayes risks of BSP and CBSP and related quantities is given. Also, a Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to illustrate the performance of the CBSP compared with the BSP. The simulation results demonstrate that our proposed CBSP has better performance because it has smaller risk. The CBSP is recommended. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 604–616, 2015     

基于时间切片的通信计划合规性评估模型

针对体系作战背景下通信计划规划任务多线性和关系复杂的问题,提出了一种通信计划合规性评估模型。该模型通过构建计划时间切片,描述了多个通信保障任务主线在各阶段的全局关系视图,并定义了通信链路连接矩阵、电磁频谱三级规划和指控系统命名类量化,描述了通信计划的基本内容,同时定义了3类评估规则和3种评估运算法则,形成了完整的合规性评估体系。最后,通过实例分析验证了模型有效性,结果表明,评估模型能够较好地区分不同信息需求下的通信计划合理程度。     

基于委托模式的多分辨率联合仿真

多分辨率联合仿真是实现多层次、多视角仿真的有效方法之一。现有多分辨率联合仿真模式存在一致性偏差和仿真剧情割裂问题,从而影响仿真的有效性。为此,提出基于委托模式的多分辨率联合仿真思路,该模式下能够较好地避免仿真剧情割裂问题,同时降低一致性问题的解决难度。通过实例验证,该方法较好地适用于大规模作战和局部作战行动的多分辨率联合仿真。     

US Advanced Conventional Systems and Conventional Prompt Global Strike Ambitions:

ABSTRACT

The dangers and risks of employing a Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) capability greatly exceed the benefits. More suitable, if less prompt, alternatives exist to deal with fleeting targets. Even a niche CPGS capability—consisting of approximately twenty systems—carries risks, to say nothing of proposals to develop hundreds or more. Most dangerously, CPGS could stir the pre-emption pot, particularly vis-à-vis states that correctly perceive to be within the gunsights of US CPGS weapons; other states, too, may feel emboldened to emulate this US precedent and undertake their own form of prompt, long-range strike capability. Compressed circumstances surrounding such a scenario could foster unwanted erratic behavior, including the misperception that the threatening missile carries a nuclear weapon. But the true Achilles's heel of the CPGS concept is the unprecedented demands it places on the intelligence community to provide decision makers with “exquisite” intelligence within an hour timeframe. Such compressed conditions leave decision makers with virtually no time to appraise the direct—and potentially unintended—consequences of their actions.     

海上远程精确打击体系作战能力评估指标空间建模方法研究

现代战争的信息化程度、复杂性和不确定性不断提高,对海上远程精确打击（LPSS）体系作战能力的评估提出了更高的要求．要想准确评估系统的作战能力,建立合理的LPSS体系作战能力评估指标体系非常关键．然而影响LPSS体系作战能力的指标繁多,指标间存在冗余和相关性,不同层次指标间还存在交叉性,直接采用这些指标会增加后续评估的时空复杂度．在创建LPSS体系作战能力评估指标体系的基础上,对评估指标空间的建模方法进行研究,创建了可供评估的数据样本空间,为后续对底层指标集合进行约简、降维处理奠定了基础．     

基于椭球模型的雷达/ESM联合定位算法

为了减少作战过程中雷达的开机时间,采用了ESM辅助的方法。在雷达关机条件下,利用多平台ESM对目标进行定位;当雷达开机时,采用雷达/ESM联合定位。本文首先分析了基于椭球模型的多平台ESM交叉定位算法,其次分析了雷达/ESM联合定位算法。通过仿真实验分析,这两种算法具有很高的定位精度;并分析了测量误差对定位精度的影响。该算法具有一定的应用价值     

强军目标统领下的“合训”学员素质培育

强军目标对培养高素质军事人才提出了新的更高要求。培养高素质“合训”学员必须坚持把夯实思想政治素质作为学员素质的根本,把打牢科学文化素质作为学员素质的基础,把练就过硬军事素质作为学员素质的核心,把强化指挥管理素质作为学员素质的关键,全面提升“合训”学员的综合素质。