Optimal policies for stochastic clearing systems with time-dependent delay penalties

We study stochastic clearing systems with a discrete-time Markovian input process, and an output mechanism that intermittently and instantaneously clears the system partially or completely. The decision to clear the system depends on both quantities and delays of outstanding inputs. Clearing the system incurs a fixed cost, and outstanding inputs are charged a delay penalty, which is a general increasing function of the quantities and delays of individual inputs. By recording the quantities and delays of outstanding inputs in a sequence, we model the clearing system as a tree-structured Markov decision process over both a finite and infinite horizon. We show that the optimal clearing policies, under realistic conditions, are of the on-off type or the threshold type. Based on the characterization of the optimal policies, we develop efficient algorithms to compute parameters of the optimal policies for such complex clearing systems for the first time. We conduct a numerical analysis on the impact of the nonlinear delay penalty cost function, the comparison of the optimal policy and the classical hybrid policy (ie, quantity and age thresholds), and the impact of the state of the input process. Our experiments demonstrate that (a) the classical linear approximation of the cost function can lead to significant performance differences; (b) the classical hybrid policy may perform poorly (as compared to the optimal policies); and (c) the consideration of the state of the input process makes significant improvement in system performance.     

基于灰色聚类的管道电伴热系统安全评价

虽然管道电伴热系统在国防工业领域有着十分广泛的应用,但在实际使用过程中也经常会出现各种问题.本文针对管道电伴热系统安全性的评价问题,在分析总结管道电伴热系统常见故障的基础上,从系统设计、安装施工、电气连接与操作使用4个方面,选取17个影响因素构建管道电伴热系统安全评价指标体系,通过改进层次分析法计算得到各方案层的权重值...     

作战过程设计策略及其优选模型

组织设计通常包括三个流程即任务环境分析、过程设计和结构设计.作战过程设计是以其环境分析为基础,以其结构设计为目的,最终解决作战组织资源、平台、信息和决策的最优"合纵"和"连横"问题.尝试将C2(Command Control)组织的有关设计理论映射到作战组织设计,根据组织的演化过程机理,采用基于Bayes网络的方法,对作战组织进行过程设计,并对其设计策略进行优选,最后给出一个案例并加以验证.结果表明:采用动态Bayes网络的方法研究组织过程设计可行,其设计策略及优选模型合理.     

基于模糊综合评判的地空导弹阵地选择

在现代防空中,由于精确制导技术在空袭兵器当中的运用,使防空作战中兵力机动显得格外重要.为实现机动作战,阵地选择就成为机动作战中的重要环节.运用模糊数学原理和方法,结合地空导弹部队阵地选择的特点,给出了阵地选择评价因素指标体系,建立了阵地选择方案的二级模糊综合评判模型,并采用层次分析法(AHP)对阵地选择评价因素的权重进行了确定,最终得出阵地选择合理的评价结果.     

固体燃料冲压发动机飞行性能分析

固体燃料冲压发动机性能通过进气道与导弹飞行工况关联在一起,其工作过程需考虑导弹飞行参数对发动机性能的影响。与其它冲压发动机相比,固体燃料冲压发动机一个显著特点是推进剂燃烧过程不仅与推进剂配方、发动机结构和燃烧室压强有关,还取决于燃烧室入口空气参数,因此工作过程较为复杂。在国内首次建立固体燃料冲压发动机工作过程仿真模型,并分析导弹飞行马赫数和高度对发动机性能的影响规律。     

空间推进系统工作过程的模块化建模

建立空间推进系统仿真模块(包括液体管道模块、三通模块、充填模块、推力室模块等)的数学模型.虽然采用的是集中参数方法,但同时考虑了液体的惯性、粘性和压缩性,所以本文建立的常微分方程组能在一定程度上反映供应系统工作过程的分布特性.     

舰艇编队防空电子对抗战法评估模型研究

通过对舰艇编队防空电子对抗战法的决策过程和战法的层次结构进行分析和描述,探讨了适合解决舰艇编队防空电子对抗战法评价问题的层次分析模型。     

关联理论与阅读理解

本文从关联理论的角度讨论阅读理解的认知过程,提出关联理论对阅读理解的认知过程有极强的解释力,具体阐述了这一理论在阅读理解中的运用,揭示了关联理论对帮助学生改进阅读策略有指导意义.     

基于BP神经网络的引进项目效益综合评价

一种新的基于BP神经网络方法用于综合评价引进项目的经济效益 .计算结果表明 ,与层次分析法相比较 ,这种方法可以作为研究此类问题的新途径 .     

Nonparametric estimation of some quantities of interest from renewal theory

In this paper, confidence intervals are given for two quantities of importance related to renewal processes. For each quantity, two confidence intervals are discussed. One confidence interval is given for general, all‐purpose use. Another confidence interval is given which is easier to compute, but not of general use. The case where data are subject to right censorship is also considered. Some numerical comparisons are made. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 638–649, 2003.