基于打击链的智能武器风险分析与控制方法研究

打击链是分析武器和系统等作战要素有效性的一种方法.针对当前智能武器概念缺乏一致定义的问题,本文提出了基于打击链作战方式的智能武器判定方法.针对智能武器认定困难引发的军控措施争论,分析了智能武器两方面的失控风险:人失去对自主武器的控制权与自主武器本身存在不可控因素和缺陷;以及智能武器的问责困境:如何在指挥者、编程者与智能...     

两栖装甲车辆车体随机应力统计

为探究某型两栖装甲车辆车体关键部位的疲劳失效原因,测取了不同路面工况下的载荷谱。采用雨流计数法对实测载荷谱进行计数,得到了相应载荷谱中应力循环的均值、幅值计数结果,利用数理统计的方法得到了各种路况的载荷分布模型,为疲劳分析提供了重要的数据并为海上试验及数据分析奠定了基础。雨流法及分布函数参数估计的程序实现,大大提高了随机应力谱的统计处理速度。     

发动机空载减速过程仿真与试验研究

以某型履带车辆发动机动力和传动系统为研究对象,应用CFD软件和虚拟样机软件对发动机空载减速过程进行仿真计算。模拟了不同漏气当量下该型发动机空载减速过程,并通过实车试验进行了验证,为基于空载减速过程的发动机技术状况评估提供了理论依据与试验方法。     

基于层次分析法的军队油料消耗组合预测模型

在军队油料消耗预测中以直线趋势外推预测法、季节指数预测法和灰色预测法构成组合预测模型,以此为基础引入层次分析法来确定各自权重,按各项预测的重要程度求出组合预测结果。组合预测结果精度较高,并且通过对该组合预测模型中的判断矩阵灵活调整,从而可得到一组适合对应单位的油料消耗组合预测权系数,具有良好通用性,在部队中具有较好的推广价值。     

舰舰协同制导下舰空导弹水平发射区研究

为增加舰空导弹拦截低空目标的发射时机,研究了舰舰协同制导下舰空导弹水平发射区.首先分别计算了单舰制导和雷达哨舰接力制导下水平发射区;然后在坐标系内合成得到舰舰协同制导下舰空导弹水平发射区.通过仿真比较,得出舰舰协同制导下比单舰制导下目标航路捷径增加了35%左右,舰空导弹水平发射区的纵深显著增加的结论,为舰艇作战指挥决策提供了较好的理论依据.     

Coordinated dynamic control of marketing and production

We study the dynamic profit maximization problem for a firm exercising control on both marketing and production. The firs marketing effort impacts the current‐period demand, which in turn affects future demand in a dissipating fashion. Under linear‐cost and zero‐leadtime assumptions, we show that the firm should follow base‐point rules for both marketing and production, whereas trends of the base points reflect a certain complementarity between marketing and production. We obtain comparable results when marketing costs are convex. Our computational study identifies conditions under which simple fixed‐marketing‐effort and fixed‐marketing‐target heuristics would perform well. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

On a Markov‐modulated shock and wear process

We present transient and asymptotic reliability indices for a single‐unit system that is subject to Markov‐modulated shocks and wear. The transient results are derived from the (transform) solution of an integro‐differential equation describing the joint distribution of the cumulative degradation process and the state of the modulating process. Additionally, we prove the asymptotic normality of a properly centered and time‐scaled version of the cumulative degradation at time t. This asymptotic result leads to a simple normal approximation for a properly centered and space‐scaled version of the systes lifetime distribution. Two numerical examples illustrate the quality of the normal approximation. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

Performance and properties of Q‐Statistic monitoring schemes

In this article, we study the Shewhart chart of Q statistics proposed for the detection of process mean shifts in start‐up processes and short runs. Exact expressions for the run‐length distribution of this chart are derived and evaluated using an efficient computational procedure. The procedure can be considerably faster than using direct simulation. We extend our work to analyze the practice of requiring multiple signals from the chart before responding, a practice sometimes followed with Shewhart charts. The results show that waiting to receive multiple signals severely reduces the probability of quickly detecting shifts in certain cases, and therefore may be considered a risky practice. Operational guidelines for practitioners implementing the chart are discussed. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

定性过程推理的物资保障能力定性模型的建立

面对物资保障仿真领域中解决复杂、不确定问题存在困难,提出运用定性仿真的新思路研究,由定性过程理论和定性推理相结合提出定性过程推理的概念,分析了影响物资保障能力的因素,应用定性过程推理的方法抽象出物资保障能力定性模型,用符号定向图形象地表示该模型.并假设初始条件进行了推理论证,对推理结果的准确性和改进方式进行了分析,对下一步工作做了展望.     

三合一场所火灾危险性模糊综合评价

根据＂三合一＂场所火灾危险性的影响因素,应用模糊识别理论构建了＂三合一＂场所火灾危险性评价指标体系、层次结构模型和判断矩阵,并利用层次分析和多级模糊评价相结合的方法对某＂三合一＂场所火灾危险性进行了综合评价。研究结果表明：该方法的评价结果符合实际情况,具有较好的可操作性,对预防＂三合一＂场所火灾事故具有很好的参考价值。