舰船成本预测系统中的自变量约简方法

针对舰船成本预测系统中自变量众多且相互关系错综复杂的特点,提出了用模糊粗糙集方法对舰船成本预测系统中的自变量进行约简。在模糊粗糙集方法的框架下,给出了模糊不可分辨关系和相对约简的定义,构建了基于模糊粗糙集的舰船成本预测系统自变量约简模型,并且针对实际的舰船成本预测系统一般是混合数据系统的问题,对广义差别矩阵的定义进行了改进,设计了相应的启发式约简算法。实例分析结果表明:文中所提的方法不仅能使约简的自变量大为减少,而且约简的效果较传统方法更好,且计算过程也更简单。     

Deterministic and stochastic scheduling with teamwork tasks

We study a class of new scheduling problems which involve types of teamwork tasks. Each teamwork task consists of several components, and requires a team of processors to complete, with each team member to process a particular component of the task. Once the processor completes its work on the task, it will be available immediately to work on the next task regardless of whether the other components of the last task have been completed or not. Thus, the processors in a team neither have to start, nor have to finish, at the same time as they process a task. A task is completed only when all of its components have been processed. The problem is to find an optimal schedule to process all tasks, under a given objective measure. We consider both deterministic and stochastic models. For the deterministic model, we find that the optimal schedule exhibits the pattern that all processors must adopt the same sequence to process the tasks, even under a general objective function GC = F(f₁(C₁), f₂(C₂), … , f_n(C_n)), where f_i(C_i) is a general, nondecreasing function of the completion time C_i of task i. We show that the optimal sequence to minimize the maximum cost MC = max f_i(C_i) can be derived by a simple rule if there exists an order f₁(t) ≤ … ≤ f_n(t) for all t between the functions {f_i(t)}. We further show that the optimal sequence to minimize the total cost TC = ∑ f_i(C_i) can be constructed by a dynamic programming algorithm. For the stochastic model, we study three optimization criteria: (A) almost sure minimization; (B) stochastic ordering; and (C) expected cost minimization. For criterion (A), we show that the results for the corresponding deterministic model can be easily generalized. However, stochastic problems with criteria (B) and (C) become quite difficult. Conditions under which the optimal solutions can be found for these two criteria are derived. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

舰载装备系统效费权衡分析

借助于趋势分析法进行效费权衡 ,分析了装备系统效能和费用随性能指标变化的发展趋势 ,确定了性能指标的变化对效能与费用的影响大小 ,进而可为装备的研制发展提供有价值的权衡依据 .     

On Growing Operating Costs in the Armed Forces

Operating costs per unit of input or output are often claimed to grow faster in defence than elsewhere in the economy. In this paper, we outline several possible reasons as to why operating costs increase at higher rates in defence, including differences in the input factor mix and productivity growth, the technological complexity required to maintain the relative effect of weapon systems and a gradual reduction in the number of units and activity. We investigate whether operating costs grow at a faster rate than elsewhere in the economy, by estimating growth in real output unit costs in the Norwegian Armed Forces for the period 1994–2013, using activity as a measure of output. We find no increase beyond general inflation in structural (fixed) costs, whereas activity-based (variable) costs per unit of activity increase significantly.     

On the reduction of total‐cost and average‐cost MDPs to discounted MDPs

This article provides conditions under which total‐cost and average‐cost Markov decision processes (MDPs) can be reduced to discounted ones. Results are given for transient total‐cost MDPs with transition rates whose values may be greater than one, as well as for average‐cost MDPs with transition probabilities satisfying the condition that there is a state such that the expected time to reach it is uniformly bounded for all initial states and stationary policies. In particular, these reductions imply sufficient conditions for the validity of optimality equations and the existence of stationary optimal policies for MDPs with undiscounted total cost and average‐cost criteria. When the state and action sets are finite, these reductions lead to linear programming formulations and complexity estimates for MDPs under the aforementioned criteria.© 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 66:38–56, 2019     

基于“效重比”的机载火控雷达研制费估算

机载电子设备研制费的估算是飞机费用预测的一大难题。近年来出现的基于设备静态效能的统计方法,将机载电子设备众多的特征参数综合成一个静态效能指数,并利用该指数和设备的重量(体积)、可靠性指标等参数进行统计分析。但是在实际应用中,常用的效能评估方法考虑因素不全面,且受主观性影响较大;同时,电子设备的效能指数和重量一般都表现出较强的相关性,不能并列作为费用估算变量。为此,在提出能力综合评估法代替常用的效能指数法的基础上,采用"效重比"作为一个综合性参数的思想,建立了基于"效重比"的机载火控雷达研制费用估算模型;并通过机载火控雷达研制费用的估算实例验证了模型的可用性。     

作业成本法在包装成本管理中的应用

我国的市场竞争日趋激烈,产品的复杂程度越来越高,传统成本计算方法已无法满足对成本精确性的要求.鉴于作业成本法(ABC法)在成本管理领域中的日益普及,重点探讨ABC法在包装成本管理中的运用.通过对某企业包装成本进行实例计算和作业分析,说明应用ABC法可以得到相对准确的包装成本信息,并找出影响包装成本的主要因素及相应的解决方法,为包装成本管理提供了依据.     

寿命周期费用分析中的数据采集问题探讨

寿命周期费用数据采集是寿命周期费用分析的关键问题之一。简要介绍了寿命周期费用的概念,探讨了寿命周期费用数据采集的目的与要求、费用数据的来源、内容、采集形式,以及对费用数据的处理等与寿命周期费用数据采集有关的问题。目的在于为寿命周期费用的数据采集提供一般性指导方法。     

装备维修宏观调控指标体系研究

在对大量历史数据的统计分析基础上 ,科学确定了全军装备维修宏观管理所需的调控指标 ,并建立了计量经济学模型和回归模型 ,为装备维修宏观调控提供了基本依据。     

装备再制造费用预测估算方法

在装备再制造周期及再制造费用基本概念的基础上,给出了再制造费用参数的相关内容,并阐述了工程估算法、专家判断估算法、参数估算法、类比估算法等4种装备再制造费用分析及预测估算的方法,构建了基于工程估算法的再制造费用分解结构,并对再制造费用分析流程进行了详细描述,可为形成正确的再制造设计方案提供费用决策依据。