模糊逻辑系统在船舶风险评估中的应用

为了合理进行船舶风险评估,提出了一种基于模糊逻辑系统的船舶风险评估方法.根据模糊逻辑系统的基本原理,建立了船舶风险评估的模糊逻辑模型;按照国家标准、规范,并结合经验建立了风险指标的模糊集合、风险矩阵及模糊规则,然后进行了模糊推理,得到了系统的风险等级,并制定了预防风险的措施.以某艇消防系统的风险评估为例,证明了其能够合理地评估出系统的风险,可为决策提供参考.     

动态灰色时序系统 DGTS 及其在安全策略规范中的应用

设计安全策略模型时应考虑安全策略的时序特性和灰色特性,还应综合考虑保密性、完整性和可用性三方面的需求。已有的安全模型没有描述时序性和灰色特性,而且一般只侧重描述保密性或完整性。为此,本文提出了动态灰色时序系统（简称ＤＧＴＳ）。本文详细描述了ＤＧＴＳ,以及基于ＤＧＴＳ的动态语义设计的灰色时序安全策略规范语言ＧＴＳＬ。     

Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria

Since the July 2009 Boko Haram terrorist outburst in Nigeria, there have been increasing questions on the phenomenon in the country. There has not been any substantial analysis on the emergence of the Boko Haram group and its terrorist activities in Nigeria as the out-rage continues. This study is advanced to explain the phenomenon of Boko Haram terrorism in Nigeria. It employs the levels of analysis framework popular in the field of international relations to explain the terrorism at three major levels: individual, state and international. The study relies on dependable news reports, which include interviews with key actors relevant to the subject matter, and finds that Boko Haram terrorism has its roots in the ideology and motivations of its founder and members, the failures and deficiencies of the Nigerian state, and the modern trend of religious terrorism in the international system.     

Patents and Dual-use Technology: An Empirical Study of the World's Largest Defence Companies

Abstract

This paper examines the generation of technological knowledge by leading companies in the defence industry. In particular, we test whether the characteristics of large defence companies are related to both the production of different types of patents (civilian, military and mixed), and the generation of dual-use technologies. To explore these links, we rely on economic data for the top 100 defence companies from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute database, and patent information from the Worldwide Patent Statistical Database. Our results show that the relationship between the production of civilian patents and the size of the company is positive and significant. However, this relationship does not hold for the production of military patents. Furthermore, the military commercial profile is unrelated to the generation of military patents. Regarding the involvement in dual-use technologies, firms engaged in dual-use are those with higher military sales, a greater number of employees and a larger number of patents (civilian, military and mixed) than those not engaged in dual-use. Furthermore, we found a skill effect (more involvement in dual-use per employee) in European firms compared to US firms. These findings help to identify which firms should be targeted by government policies if increasing dual-use technologies becomes a political objective.     

Democracy and peace: Reply to oneal and russett

The criticism of James, Solberg and Wolfson (JSW) (1999) by Oneal and Russett (OR) is not responsive to the methodologica] issues at stake. JSW argued that war is an endogenous feature of the world political and economic system. If its causes are to be measured, it must be as a structural equation in a simultaneous system. Wedded to the idea that “democracies never fight each other,” OR rely on a single equation to justify their view. JSW claim that such an equation may be an ad hoc reduced form with no causal implications unless the equation is explicitly identified as a structural equation. JSW expand the model to explain democracy and conflict as two endogenous variables. JSW do not claim to have discovered the true relationships between these variables by their minimal expansion of the structural relation. They do show that unless these (and other) variables are treated as part of a system, the results are unstable, contradictory, of minimal size and not a reliable guide to public policy.     

位置随动系统动态性能自动检测研究

通过分析某型位置随动系统的组成和动态技术指标,提出了位置随动系统动态性能自动检测的设计方案和测试方法,利用信号仿真模块和基于DSP的高速数据采集与处理模块,建立了自动检测的硬件电路和软件结构,确定了测试位置随动系统的动态性能指标、测试方法和软件功能,实现了对某型位置随动系统动态性能的自动检测．     

基于雷达对抗侦察仿真的雷达生存能力评估系统研究

为合理有效地评估雷达在战场上的生存能力,选取截获概率作为定量评估指标,分析了侦察截获的判断条件,根据截获条件对雷达对抗侦察系统进行功能仿真,建立了基于HLA的评估系统．通过仿真得到了对应时间的截获概率,并以此作为评估雷达生存能力的定量指标．仿真结果表明,采用这种方法得到的截获概率合理,对提高雷达生存能力有一定参考意义．     

网络化装备维修保障概念与体系结构研究

摘要：针对传统的装备维修保障理论不能适应现代装备发展的问题,在网络技术高速发展的今天,提出了网络化装备维修保障的概念．主要探讨了网络化维修保障的概念和特点、网络化维修保障理念与传统维修保障理念的关系、网络化维修保障体系构想等问题．对网络化装备维修保障的概念和体系进行了初步的定义和分析,为进一步研究网络化维修保障理论奠定了基础．     

塔架摆杆系统静动态特性研究

为研究航天发射塔架摆杆系统的静动态特性,利用Pro／E建立其三维实体模型,再将模型导入Abaqus中建立其有限元模型并对该塔架摆杆系统进行静、动态分析计算．通过静态分析,得到塔架关键部位的应力及位移值,对其安全性进行了校核;通过动态分析得到其固有频率及振型,与试验所得频率进行对比,验证有限元建模的正确性．     

基于效能的舰艇电子对抗训练效果评估方法

摘 要：为解决舰艇电子对抗专业训练缺乏统一评估标准与方法体系等实际评估难题;采用系统分析方法结合舰艇电子对抗专业训练实际;研究提出了基于“任务要求分解”的作战效能量化指标体系构建方法、训练效果表达方法及实用评估指标体系、定量指标评估模型、评估标准等舰艇电子对抗训练效果评估方法体系;能够满足专业训练效果评估所需,对其它专业军事训练效果评估工作亦具有借鉴意义。