基于分形方法的我国重特大火灾形势预测

在对1997年至2005年间我国重特大火灾事故的起数和直接损失两项指标统计分析的基础上,将在工程和经济学等领域中应用广泛的分形方法经过改进,讨论了分形分布模型对未来重特大火灾事故发展态势进行预测分析的合理性。研究分析结果表明,我国近九年来重特大火灾事故的形势持续平稳,而且稳中有降,重特大火灾事故得到了有效遏制。分形方法预测结果表明,2006年和2007年我国重大火灾事故的起数和直接损失都将持续下降,特大火灾事故的起数和直接损失呈波动性下降趋势。     

特殊半鞅的强大数定律

利用特殊半鞅的收敛定理和一般形式的Kronecker引理,给出了特殊半鞅和非负特殊半鞅强大数定律的一般形式,推广和完善了已有的结果.     

数据库中关联规则的并行/分布式采掘技术

高效的并行/分布式采掘方法是数据库中关联规则发现技术的重要的研究方向,首先给出了关联规则的并行/分布式采掘的相关描述,针对关联规则并行/分布式采掘的基本思想,分析算法中可以改进效能的环节,提出生成更少候选集、局部剪枝、减少通讯量和优化扫描等提高性能和降低复杂度的方法。     

基于多指标相似性的T/R组件剩余寿命融合预测方法

为实现对T/R组件剩余寿命的准确预测,及时掌握装备当前健康状态和提高装备维修保障水平,分析T/R组件的故障特点,筛选出反映T/R组件状态退化过程的状态监测指标,通过计算每个指标对应的剩余寿命信息和权重,得到T/R组件的剩余寿命预测结果。通过算例分析与比较,验证了预测方法的实用性与有效性。研究结果可为电子装备剩余寿命预测提供理论指导,对合理计划维修资源和提高装备战斗力具有重要意义。     

多核网络分组处理系统的数据分段卸载发送机制

为摆脱对商用网卡的依赖,降低软硬件复杂度,提出通用多核网络分组处理系统,构建面向大报文高速分组转发应用的软硬件协同数据分段卸载发送机制,并实现原型系统。该机制基于轻量级输入输出的软硬件协同多核分组处理系统,以降低大报文切分、拷贝开销以及软硬件复杂度为目的,把实现切分报文、封装报文头以及校验功能中硬件实现复杂的部分卸载到驱动中,将分段报文数据拷贝缩减为新报文头的拷贝,结合链式直接内存存取技术,为多核实现高速的大报文分组转发提供有效的解决方案。基于国产通用多核和高性能现场可编程门阵列平台进行发送性能测试。测试结果表明：采用数据分段卸载发送机制能大幅提升报文发送性能,有效解决大报文引发的多核网络分组处理性能下降的问题。     

高速铁路交通事故处置对策思考

随着高铁技术的日益成熟和广泛运用,高铁将成为城际之间交通运输的主要途径。随着大规模的高速铁路建成运营,铁路机车车辆发生冲突、脱轨、火灾、爆炸等交通事故随时可能发生。如何科学、快速处置高速铁路交通事故,已成为消防部队面临的重要课题。结合嘉兴高速铁路建设的情况,分析了高速铁路交通事故发生的原因、特点,及高速铁路交通事故应急救援的不利因素,提出了相应处置对策。     

A novel modeling approach for express package carrier planning

Express package carrier networks have large numbers of heavily‐interconnected and tightly‐constrained resources, making the planning process difficult. A decision made in one area of the network can impact virtually any other area as well. Mathematical programming therefore seems like a logical approach to solving such problems, taking into account all of these interactions. The tight time windows and nonlinear cost functions of these systems, however, often make traditional approaches such as multicommodity flow formulations intractable. This is due to both the large number of constraints and the weakness of the linear programming (LP) relaxations arising in these formulations. To overcome these obstacles, we propose a model in which variables represent combinations of loads and their corresponding routings, rather than assigning individual loads to individual arcs in the network. In doing so, we incorporate much of the problem complexity implicitly within the variable definition, rather than explicitly within the constraints. This approach enables us to linearize the cost structure, strengthen the LP relaxation of the formulation, and drastically reduce the number of constraints. In addition, it greatly facilitates the inclusion of other stages of the (typically decomposed) planning process. We show how the use of templates, in place of traditional delayed column generation, allows us to identify promising candidate variables, ensuring high‐quality solutions in reasonable run times while also enabling the inclusion of additional operational considerations that would be difficult if not impossible to capture in a traditional approach. Computational results are presented using data from a major international package carrier. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008