恒加试验下Pareto部件的可靠性分析

基于定数截尾试验,研究恒加试验下Pareto部件的可靠性分析问题。利用经典方法和Bayes方法,给出了部件参数的极大似然估计、Bayes估计和逆矩估计。验证了极大似然估计和Bayes估计的等价性。结合加速寿命方程,推导出Pareto部件的可靠度、失效率的估计值。最后,通过仿真比较与分析,建立了Pareto部件的可靠性评估方法。     

一类比率型捕食系统的定性分析

研究一类比率型捕食者-食饵模型dxdt=x(a-bx)-x2c+x2myy2dydt=y(-r+x2d+xm2y2),应用微分方程定性理论,得出该系统极限环的存在性与正平衡点的全局渐近稳定性的充分条件。     

履带销磨损寿命预测仿真

履带销是自行火炮推进装置中重要的传力元件。针对履带销磨损的情况建立了接触应力模型,谱块磨损量模型和磨损阈值模型,并对履带销的磨损寿命进行仿真预测。结果表明,仿真结果与实际情况符合。     

生物学教学与创新性思维培养

本文论述了在生物学教学中引入生命科学史和生命科学学说理论并施以创新思维教学,能够培养学生的创新能力,提高学生的综合素质的方法。     

用于闭式循环柴油机不依赖空气推进装置的吸收器尺寸估算模型研究

根据闭式循环柴油机推进装置（ＣＣＤＡＩＰ）的废气处理要求,研究提出了旋转式二氧化碳吸收器的填料内径、外径、轴向高度的估算数学模型,并对用水吸收二氧化碳的吸收器填料设计尺寸进行了操作安全性校核．     

某新型榴弹引信加速寿命试验设计

通过对影响某新型榴弹引信长储失效的主要环境因素（温度和湿度）分析,得出其寿命服从威布尔分布,双环境应力下满足阿伦尼斯模型。用恒定应力加速寿命试验方法计算出双环境应力下威布尔分布的过渡参数、形状参数、尺寸参数等值,从而估算出某新型榴弹引信长储失效规律。     

Weibull 分布场合下恒定应力加速寿命试验的保序估计

讨论了Ｗｅｉｂｕｌ场合下恒定应力加速寿命试验的最优线性无偏估计及保序估计,获得了保序估计的表示式,并给出了一个模拟例子．     

火箭出口面积对RBCC发动机引射模态影响规律分析

火箭基组合循环发动机引射模态飞行状态复杂,为了提高发动机的整体性能,研究了火箭出口面积对发动机引射模态的影响规律。通过数值模拟研究,引射流量在低飞行马赫数条件下,主要受引射性能影响,火箭出口面积越大,引射性能越好。然而,随着飞行马赫数的提升,引射空气的动能提升,隔离段内出现壅塞情况,引射流量主要受限于隔离段几何尺寸,与火箭出口面积无关。在亚声速工况下,火箭出口面积越小,发动机比冲越低,且出口无量纲面积为3.15时,火箭羽流膨胀撞壁,会引起性能骤减,需要予以避免;在超声速工况下,选择面积较小的火箭出口面积,燃烧室内压越高,发动机性能提升越明显。     

The human consequences of foreign military intervention

The empirical international conflict literature has given much recent attention to interstate armed force’s impact on human well-being. While empirical research has advanced our understanding of the phenomenon considerably, we argue that one conclusion that many studies have reached is preliminary. Some recent research contends that only full-scale war, and not force short of war, has a discernable impact on human welfare or physical quality of life (PQOL). We develop theory on one type of force short of war, large-scale foreign military intervention (FMI), and its potential effects on PQOL. Using interrupted time series and panel corrected standard error methodologies, we find that from 1960 to 2005 large-scale FMI had a statistically and substantively significant impact on the PQOL of populations in 106 developing countries. The specific effect that this type of armed force has depended in large part on the regime type of the target country.     

Stochastic framework for partially degradation systems with continuous component degradation‐rate‐interactions

Many conventional models that characterize the reliability of multicomponent systems are developed on the premise that for a given system, the failures of its components are independent. Although this facilitates mathematical tractability, it may constitute a significant departure from what really takes place. In many real‐world applications, system components exhibit various degrees of interdependencies, which present significant challenges in predicting degradation performance and the remaining lifetimes of the individual components as well as the system at large. We focus on modeling the performance of interdependent components of networked systems that exhibit interactive degradation processes. Specifically, we focus on how the performance level of one component affects the degradation rates of other dependent components. This is achieved by using stochastic models to characterize how degradation‐based sensor signals associated with the components evolve over time. We consider “Continuous‐Type” component interactions that occur continuously over time. This type of degradation interaction exists in many applications, in which interdependencies occur on a continuum. We use a system of stochastic differential equations to capture such “Continuous‐Type” interaction. In addition, we utilize a Bayesian approach to update the proposed model using real‐time sensor signals observed in the field and provide more accurate estimation of component residual lifetimes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 286–303, 2014