Exact likelihood inference for the exponential distribution under generalized Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censoring

Chen and Bhattacharyya [Exact confidence bounds for an exponential parameter under hybrid censoring, Commun Statist Theory Methods 17 (1988), 1857–1870] considered a hybrid censoring scheme and obtained the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the mean of an exponential distribution along with an exact lower confidence bound. Childs et al. [Exact likelihood inference based on Type‐I and Type‐II hybrid censored samples from the exponential distribution, Ann Inst Statist Math 55 (2003), 319–330] recently derived an alternative simpler expression for the distribution of the MLE. These authors also proposed a new hybrid censoring scheme and derived similar results for the exponential model. In this paper, we propose two generalized hybrid censoring schemes which have some advantages over the hybrid censoring schemes already discussed in the literature. We then derive the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator as well as exact confidence intervals for the mean of the exponential distribution under these generalized hybrid censoring schemes. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

A general approach to the shape of failure rate and MRL functions

Failure rate and mean residual life are two important characteristics for studying reliability of products. In literature, some work studied the shape of failure rate function based on the knowledge of the associated probability density function; some other work investigated the shape of mean residual life function based on the shape of the associated failure rate function separately for continuous case and discrete case. In this article, a general approach is developed which can be applied to the aforementioned studies. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Higher‐order Markov chain models for categorical data sequences*

In this paper we study higher‐order Markov chain models for analyzing categorical data sequences. We propose an efficient estimation method for the model parameters. Data sequences such as DNA and sales demand are used to illustrate the predicting power of our proposed models. In particular, we apply the developed higher‐order Markov chain model to the server logs data. The objective here is to model the users' behavior in accessing information and to predict their behavior in the future. Our tests are based on a realistic web log and our model shows an improvement in prediction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

BIT系统的三态马尔可夫模型分析

BIT技术是改善系统测试性和诊断能力的重要途径,但是较高的虚警率一直是阻碍BIT广泛应用的一个重要原因。研究过程中将系统状态划分为正常、间歇、故障三种状态,建立了马尔可夫模型,分析、对比了三态模型与两态模型的关系。理论分析结果表明:基于三态模型的BIT,在提高故障检测率的同时,还可以较大程度地降低虚警率。     

一种用于机电产品测试性设计的传感器优选MINLP模型

在单故障假设条件下,考虑了传感器的失效概率和设备的故障率,提出一种以故障检测率和故障隔离率为约束条件的降低传感器费用和失效概率的混合整数非线性规划(MINLP)模型,从而为机电产品测试性设计中传感器选择问题提供了一种可行和有效的解决方法,并进行了案例验证,说明了该方法的有效性。     

攻防对抗仿真中高炮火力单元射击指挥模型

在分析高炮火力单元射击指挥过程的基础上,着重对高炮火力单元射击指挥仿真中的目标搜索模型与杀伤效果评估模型进行了深入探讨和构建。在实现高炮杀伤效果评估方面,运用蒙特卡罗方法构建了符合实际、满足仿真粒度要求的高炮着发射与空炸射击毁伤概率计算模型。实际应用表明:模型满足仿真可信度和实时性要求,对开展地面防空作战仿真具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Optimal pricing for a short life‐cycle product when customer price‐sensitivity varies over time

Technology products often experience a life‐cycle demand pattern that resembles a diffusion process, with weak demand in the beginning and the end of the life cycle and high demand intensity in between. The customer price‐sensitivity also changes over the life cycle of the product. We study the prespecified pricing decision for a product that exhibits such demand characteristics. In particular, we determine the optimal set of discrete prices and the times to switch from one price to another, when a limited number of price changes are allowed. Our study shows that the optimal prices and switching times show interesting patterns that depend on the product's demand pattern and the change in the customers' price sensitivity over the life cycle of the product. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

多层卫星通信网络结构设计与分析

针对单层卫星网络时延高、网络阻塞概率大等问题,研究了多层卫星网络的系统结构及其特点。结合不同轨道卫星特点,引入分层卫星网络结构,采用Walker和极轨星座覆盖带设计法,设计了多层卫星网络星座。采用"弱连接"模型作为星际链路建立的基本原则,并对星座的覆盖性能和星际链路特性进行了仿真分析,结果表明,多层卫星网络在覆盖特性和星际链路性能上更具优势。     

以教师为中心教学模式在普通心理学教学中的应用初探

普通心理学是心理学专业学生的入门课程,其教学的目的是使学生通过学习获得对心理学体系的整体认识,并形成基本的学科框架,为其他专业课程的学习奠定基础。通过分析发现,普通心理学具有系统性、内容之间的关联性、对其他专业课堂的奠基性的学科特点和结构良好的知识特点;学生虽然有相关的朴素的心理学经验,但不具有科学的心理学专业知识的知识储备特点和成熟认知的思维特点。这些特征与教师中心取向的教学模式相吻合,同时学生的思维特点也为这种教学模式的开展提供了基础。     

基于ARCS动机模型的现代教育技术公共课教学策略初探

教育技术公共课是高校在校生提升信息意识和信息素养的一门必修课,但其教学效果一直不尽如人意。本文从分析当前教育技术公共课的现状入手,结合ARCS动机模型理论,提出了教育技术公共课改进的若干对策,以期提高这门课程的教学质量。