Estimating reliability of components with increasing failure rate using series system data

The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a distribution function with increasing failure rate is derived, based on a collection of series system data. Applications can arise in industries where operating environments make available only such system-level data, due to system configuration or type-II censoring. The estimator can be solved using isotonic regression. For the special case in which systems contain one component, the estimator is equivalent to the restricted maximum likelihood estimator of Marshall and Proschan [9]. The MLE is illustrated using emergency diesel generator failure data from the nuclear industry. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 115–123, 1998     

2K-H 行星传动的极限传动比

在行星轮系机构综合中,研究行星轮数目与极限传动比的关系有着极其重要的意义。本文根据２Ｋ─Ｈ行星轮系机构的同心条件、安装条件和邻接条件,采用统一的符号,对满足上述条件的所有（六种）２Ｋ─Ｈ行星轮系机构,导出了行星轮个数与极限传动比的统一关系式,得到了所有２Ｋ─Ｈ行星轮系机构的极限传动比计算公式,为２Ｋ─Ｈ行星轮系机构的综合提供了理论根据。     

融合初值校准与二阶逼近的单星测频定位算法

为减小单星测频定位的误差,提出一种融合初值校准与二阶逼近的单星测频定位算法。该算法在卫星接收信号多普勒频移为零的时间点,通过测距获得卫星到定位目标的距离信息,利用距离信息修正轨道平面与定位目标的几何关系,为初值的选取提供校准手段;将校准的初值代入含二阶级数的定位方程泰勒展开式,通过较少次数的迭代得到定位目标的真实位置,从而降低定位的算法复杂度,提高定位精度。仿真结果表明,所提出的算法与多普勒单星定位算法相比,迭代次数和定位误差大幅度减小,其实现简单、计算量少、误差小,在单星定位研究领域具有较高的理论价值和实用价值。     

On gamma estimation via matrix kriging

In financial engineering, sensitivities of derivative prices (also known as the Greeks) are important quantities in risk management, and stochastic gradient estimation methods are used to estimate them given the market parameters. In practice, the surface (function) of the Greeks with respect to the underlying parameters is much more desired, because it can be used in real‐time risk management. In this paper, we consider derivatives with multiple underlying assets, and propose three stochastic kriging‐based methods, the element‐by‐element, the importance mapping, and the Cholesky decomposition, to fit the surface of the gamma matrix that can fulfill the time constraint and the precision requirement in real‐time risk management. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

Stage life testing

In progressive censoring, items are removed at certain times during the life test. Commonly, it is assumed that the removed items are used for further testing. In order to take into account information about these additional testing in inferential procedures, we propose a two‐step model of stage life testing with one fixed stage‐change time which incorporates information about both the removed items (further tested under different conditions) and those remaining in the current life test. We show that some marginal distributions in our model correspond either to progressive censoring with a fixed censoring time or to a simple‐step stress model. Furthermore, assuming a cumulative exposure model, we establish exact inferential results for the distribution parameters when the lifetimes are exponentially distributed. An extension to Weibull distributed lifetimes is also discussed.     

二次流引射对保形非对称喷管性能的影响

发动机与飞机后体结构设计合理与否直接影响发动机的部件匹配和性能。利用三维雷诺平均N-S方程和k-ωSST湍流模型对飞翼布局无人机保形非对称喷管在典型飞行状态下开展了内外流流场特性的数值分析,获得了后体尾喷管推力性能和三维流动特征随二次流压力比的变化趋势。结果表明:发动机喷管落压比条件一定的前提下,通过合理优化二次流通道、增大二次流压力比,可以有效改善后体/喷管主流流场特性;当二次流与主流的流量比在0. 2%～1. 86%内时,后体尾喷管轴向推力系数的变化幅度大约为3%,在一定程度上能够减弱发动机主流的过膨胀程度,减小发动机推力损失,无人机后体尾喷管性能得到显著提高。     

Understanding China’s goals and strategy in the South China Sea: bringing context to a revisionist systemic challenge – intentions and impact

ABSTRACT

The slow moving conflict in the South China Sea has been characterized by some as “not worth the candle.” China claims the entirety of the South China Sea pursuant to a nine-dash line, the legal impact of which has been limited by international courts. At the same time, China has changed the reality of control over the South China Sea by building a number of fortified islands in the Spratly Islands and elsewhere. The US has either refused to stand up to China's behavior (Obama) or responded unevenly (Trump). This paper examines the impact of China's behaviour on local parties, US interests, and the liberal international system.     

二阶矩模糊随机过程的均方极限

给出了二阶矩模糊随机过程均方极限的两种定义,证明了这两种定义的等价性,并讨论了二阶矩模糊随机过程均方极限的性质。     

带有陀螺稳定器的动力系统随机响应分析

利用统计等效线化和正态降阶的方法,分析了阻尼力为非线性且带陀螺稳定器的单轨列车系统在平稳随机外力矩激励下的响应,得出了平稳随机外力矩激励对车厢在铅垂位置偏角的影响要小于对陀螺环转角的影响。     

一种基于估计熵的自适应模糊滤波器及其在箭遥信号处理中的仿真应用

介绍了一种基于估计熵的自适应模糊滤波器 ,并将其应用于宽带噪声中火箭遥测速变信号的数字滤波。讨论了自适应模糊滤波算法 ,给出了应用实验结果。分析和实验表明 ,这种新型滤波器能根据信号的复杂程度自动调节其参数 ,对宽带噪声中非平稳随机信号有较好的滤波效果