基于逼近理想解排序法的导弹保障性评价研究

保障性评价是实现导弹综合保障目标的重要手段。根据保障性评价指标模型建立了决策判断矩阵,采用层次分析法确定各指标权重,利用逼近理想解排序法对导弹保障性评价进行了定量分析。通过实例分析,这种方法计算简便,可操作性强,有实际应用价值。     

一类搜索型多对二随机格斗的获胜概率

研究搜索型多对二随机格斗战斗模型。假设格斗开始时A方有m件武器,B方有2件武器,B方处于隐蔽状态,格斗开始后B方可以直接对A方进行射击,A方需先搜索到B方后才能进行射击。双方各为同类武器,都是集火射击,所有开火都是独立的,每件武器开火射击直到毁伤对方才重新射击下一个目标。对搜索时间和毁伤间隔时间都服从一般分布的随机格斗模型,通过分析各状态的特征,利用状态概率分析方法和向后递归时间方法建立状态方程,求出了格斗处在各个状态的概率,并得到双方的获胜概率计算公式。     

假目标配置数量模型及其效费比分析

在现代战争中,示假伪装的地位越来越重要。引入了真假目标的发现识别概率的指数分布模型,综合考虑作战时间、真假目标价格比等因素,确定战场生存能力和配置假目标成本两个目标函数,并以最小加权偏差法确定两者权重,建立基于多目标决策的假目标配置数量模型。最后结合实际问题,将各参数条件带入模型计算出假目标的最佳配置数量,同时利用假目标的效费比模型进行检验分析,从而为战时假目标配置数量的确定提供参考依据。     

Shock wave mitigation using zig-zag structures and cylindrical obstructions

The present study focuses on the mitigation of shock wave using novel geometric passages in the flow field. The strategy is to produce multiple shock reflections and diffractions in the passage with minimum flow obstruction, which in turn is expected to reduce the shock wave strength at the target location. In the present study the interaction of a plane shock front (generated from a shock tube) with various geometric designs such as, 1) zig-zag geometric passage, 2) staggered cylindrical obstructions and 3) zig-zag passage with cylindrical obstructions have been investigated using computational technique. It is seen from the numerical simulation that, among the various designs, the maximum shock attenuation is produced by the zig-zag passage with cylindrical obstructions which is then followed by zig-zag passage and staggered cylindrical obstructions. A comprehensive investigation on the shock wave reflection and diffraction phenomena happening in the proposed complex passages have also been carried out. In the new zig-zag design, the initial shock wave undergoes shock wave reflection and diffraction process which swaps alternatively as the shock front moves from one turn to the other turn. This cyclic shock reflection and diffraction process helps in diffusing the shock wave energy with practically no obstruction to the flow field. It is found that by combining the shock attenuation ability of zig-zag passage (using shock reflection and diffraction) with the shock attenuation ability of cylindrical blocks (by flow obstruction), a drastic attenuation in shock strength can be achieved with moderate level of flow blocking.     

Appointment scheduling at a multidisciplinary outpatient clinic using stochastic programming

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the problem of constructing an appointment template for scheduling patients at a specific type of multidisciplinary outpatient clinic called an integrated practice unit (IPU). The focus is on developing and solving a stochastic optimization model for a back pain IPU in the face of random arrivals, an uncertain patient mix, and variable service times. The deterministic version of the problem is modeled as a mixed integer program with the objective of minimizing a weighted combination of clinic closing time (duration) and total patient waiting time (length of stay). A two‐stage stochastic program is then derived to account for the randomness and the sequential nature of the decisions. Although it was not possible to solve the two‐stage problem for even a limited number of scenarios, the wait‐and‐see (WS) problem was sufficiently tractable to provide a lower bound on the stochastic solution. The introduction of valid inequalities, limiting indices, and the use of special ordered sets helped to speed up the computations. A greedy heuristic was also developed to obtain solutions much more quickly. Out of practical considerations, it was necessary to develop appointment templates with time slots at fixed intervals, which are not available from the WS solution. The first to be derived was the expected value (EV) template that is used to find the expected value of the EV solution (EEV). This solution provides an upper bound on the objective function value of the two‐stage stochastic program. The average gap between the EEV and WS solutions was 18%. Results from extensive computational testing are presented for the EV template and for our adaptation of three other templates found in the literature. Depending on the relative importance of the two objective function metrics, the results demonstrate the trade‐off that exists between them. For the templates investigated, the “closing time” ranged from an average of 235 to 275 minutes for a 300‐minute session, while the corresponding “total patient time in clinic” ranged from 80 to 71 minutes.     

高超声速滑翔再入飞行器的可达区快速预测

防御方对来袭滑翔再入飞行器进行可达区的预测存在先验信息量不足且时效性要求高等难题.为此提出一种基于最优化飞行假设的可达区快速预测方法:仅需已知目标当前位置、速度与最大升阻比(可基于雷达探测数据通过实时弹道估计获得),基于平衡滑翔假设和最大横程的埃格斯解分别获得目标最大纵程和横程终点坐标,在经纬度二维平面内,可达区即可近...