Dynamic inventory control with limited capital and short‐term financing

For most firms, especially the small‐ and medium‐sized ones, the operational decisions are affected by their internal capital and ability to obtain external capital. However, the majority of the literature on dynamic inventory control ignores the firm's financial status and financing issues. An important question that arises is: what are the optimal inventory and financing policies for firms with limited internal capital and limited access to external capital? In this article, we study a dynamic inventory control problem where a capital‐constrained firm periodically purchases a product from a supplier and sells it to a market with random demands. In each period, the firm can use its own capital and/or borrow a short‐term loan to purchase the product, with the interest rate being nondecreasing in the loan size. The objective is to maximize the firm's expected terminal wealth at the end of the planning horizon. We show that the optimal inventory policy in each period is an equity‐level‐dependent base‐stock policy, where the equity level is the sum of the firm's capital level and the value of its on‐hand inventory evaluated at the purchasing cost; and the structure of the optimal policy can be characterized by four intervals of the equity level. Our results shed light on the dynamic inventory control for firms with limited capital and short‐term financing capabilities.Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 184–201, 2014     

支持社会技术系统构造的程序设计模型和语言

互联网上越来越多软件系统呈现出社会与技术交融、环境多样和开放、系统动态和演化等特点,如何支持这类复杂软件系统的构造是软件工程面临的一项重要挑战。通过将社会技术系统视为多Agent组织,把社会组织学的概念和思想引入到面向Agent程序设计范畴,提出了以Agent、组织、角色和职位为核心的基于组织程序模型来支持社会技术系统的开发;通过对多Agent组织不同层次动态性的识别和分析,设计了一组程序设计机制来实现社会技术系统的动态演化;包括角色绑定和组合机制、基于角色的交互机制以及组织的自我管理机制。基于上述模型和机制,提出了社会技术系统程序设计语言OragentL,给出了OragentL程序在组织、角色和组合三个层次的语法形式定义,介绍了OragentL的编译器及其运行支撑环境OragentBurg,并通过案例分析和演示展示了研究成果的有效性。     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

预制缺陷柱壳结构的等效裂纹分析方法

针对传统有限元法在分析预制缺陷柱壳时出现的应力/应变计算精度不足、无法有效指导工程实践的问题,提出了一种具有高冗余度的等效裂纹分析方法。将预制缺陷视作典型裂纹,基于奇异裂纹元法对其进行裂纹稳定性分析,并根据稳定性分析结果来评估预制缺陷柱壳的结构完整性。通过该方法得到的分析结果具有比常规有限元分析更高的可靠性,对于导弹线式爆炸分离装置等工作环境恶劣、风险系数较高的预制缺陷柱壳结构而言,该方法有助于提升其设计的安全裕度,具有一定的工程实用性。     

军用飞机燃油消耗多元线性回归模型

为了解决军用飞机非标准动作燃油消耗建模问题,利用实际飞参数据,采用多元线性回归方法进行建模分析。建立了燃油消耗量与飞行时间、油箱平均油量、平均高度、平均速度、T1温度、T4温度、N2转速、高度变化量、飞机外挂的多元线性回归模型,并对回归模型进行统计性检验和验证。结论显示:模型拟合度较好,符合军用飞机飞行耗油规律,对军用飞机非标准动作燃油消耗规律研究具有重要意义。     

基于ANP的多目标网络目标重要度评估方法＊

针对多目标网络中重心的抽象性及不易打击的特点,分析影响重心的关键要素及其依赖关系,提出了基于改进网络分析法的多目标网络重心模型,利用该模型分析目标相对于重心的重要度。研究了该模型涉及的两个关键技术,即改进判断矩阵以提高决策的速度和克服决策的主观性,利用协调理论确定要素之间的依赖关系。以分析某地区多目标网络的过程为例,验证了该模型的有效性和合理性。     

基于RSSI线性回归分析的无线传感器网络定位方法

在无线传感器网络（WSN）定位应用中,针对接收信号强度指示（RSSI）容易受到环境的影响不能实现准确测距的问题,提出了一种基于RSSI线性回归分析的定位方法。该方法通过信号衰减模型和线性回归理论相结合,修正实际环境下每个锚节点的测距模型,同时利用相关系数和剩余标准差对测距模型进行评估,制定出更加合理的定位策略。实验表明,采用修正的测距模型和新的定位策略,使得节点定位精度明显提高。     

目标规划的求解

目标规划的求解可采用图示法、单纯形法、分级法等,文中用Excel演示单纯形法和分级法。     

新型装备维修任务分配与保障资源规划分析方法研究

新型装备列装部队,对部队维修保障能力建设提出了更高更新的要求。为加速新型装备战斗力形成,急需一套科学、合理的方法用以确定装备维修任务和规划维修保障资源配置。针对这一问题,本文紧密结合我军实际,构建了新型装备维修任务分配与保障资源规划分析方法体系,规范了新型装备维修分析流程,并对分析过程中的关键技术进行了研究,最后开发了计算机辅助决策分析系统。     

线性规划问题新解——改进大M法

借鉴两阶段法的求解思路,在用单纯形法求解线性规划问题时,对大M法进行改进,提出一种新的算法.这种改进后的算法可以有效克服原来两种算法的不足,既能降低理解难度,又能提高算法的效率,保证算法的全局收敛性.