初始先验分布未知条件下的DLMR及其Bayes预测

讨论了具有无信息初始先验分布的矩阵变量动态线性模型 (简记为DLMR)及其Bayes预测 ,利用MDIP方法 ,就尺度方差阵∑已知和未知两种情况 ,分别给出模拟初始状态参数(θ1 |D0 )和 (θ1 ,∑ |D0 )的无信息先验分布 ,进而给出其Bayes预测。     

依据供应标准获取装备维修器材需求分布的方法

依据当前装备维修器材供应标准和装备维修器材保障程度模型,建立了求解装备维修器材需求分布的几种典型模型,并给出了相应的求解方法和举例,所给模型与方法具有一般意义,有较大的推广价值,对实际工作中装备维修器材的评估及科学保障具有指导意义。     

工作环境对发动机本体热负荷的影响

为了研究发动机工作环境对发动机本体热负荷的影响,以某型发动机为对象,采用缸内燃烧与冷却系统传热耦合计算方法,建立了温度和大气压力对发动机本体部件热负荷数值仿真模型。通过发动机热平衡台架试验验证了模型最大误差为9.1%,实车试验验证模型最大误差为6.2%。计算表明:发动机出口冷却水温度随环境温度和海拔升高而升高;环境温度46℃时的缸内活塞最高温度比-43℃时升高了15.4%,汽缸套最高温度升高15.5%;海拔高度每升高1 km,活塞最高温度升高1.04%,汽缸套温度升高0.95%。     

Models for production planning under power interruptions

We present a robust optimization model for production planning under the assumption that electricity supply is subject to uncertain interruptions caused by participation in interruptible load contracts (ILCs). The objective is to minimize the cost of electricity used for production while providing a robust production plan which ensures demand satisfaction under all possible interruption scenarios. The combinatorial size of the set of interruption scenarios makes this a challenging problem. Furthermore, we assume that no probabilistic information is known about the supply uncertainty: we only use the information given in the ILC to identify an uncertainty set that captures the possible scenarios. We construct a general robust framework to handle this uncertainty and present a heuristic to compute a good feasible solution of the robust model. We provide computational experiments on a real‐world example and compare the performance of an exact solver applied to the robust model with that of the heuristic procedure. Finally, we include the operational impact of interruptions such as “recovery modes” in the definition of the uncertainty set. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon

Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

离散搜索力的最优配置模型及增量搜索计划

目前,离散搜索正越来越普遍地应用于各种搜索实践。为了优化搜索过程,提高离散搜索的效率,应用最优搜索理论,导出了待搜目标服从均匀分布、正态分布时离散搜索力的最优配置模型、目标的踪迹预测方法和最优增量搜索计划的求法,并通过实例作了演示,上述结论和方法为离散搜索力如何实施最优搜索提供了一定的理论依据。     

对数正态分布的维修时间均值检验方法

针对许多装备维修时间服从或近似服从对数正态分布,从对数方差已知或未知两种角度,在控制单方或双方风险的基础上,提出了维修时间均值的检验方法,并通过实例验证了检验方法的实用性。     

多源信息的验前分布融合方法研究

验前分布的获取和表示是B ayes理论应用中的一个关键问题。针对目前多源验前信息融合中存在的过分依赖专家信息的问题,提出了一种基于第2类极大似然估计原理(M L-II)确定验前分布权重的方法,该方法将现场试验数据看作是由其边缘分布产生的样本,然后根据不同验前分布下现场样本似然性的大小来确定其在验前分布融合中的作用,并以此进一步确定不同验前分布的权重因子。最后通过算例证明了该方法比基于专家信息的融合方法更为合理和有效。     

Rectangles algorithm for generating normal variates

We propose an algorithm for generating normal random variates that is based on the acceptance–rejection method and uses a piecewise majorizing function. The piecewise function has 2048 equal‐area pieces, 2046 of which are constant, and the two extreme pieces are curves that majorize the tails. The proposed algorithm has not only good performance from correlation induction perspective, but also works well from a speed perspective. It is faster than the inversion method by Odeh and Evans and most other methods. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

坦克柴油机比油耗实车测试的研究

针对实车检测坦克柴油机比油耗的原理和方法作了探讨,对12150L柴油机进行了实车比油耗测试,认为用无负荷方法实车测定柴油机有效功率,同时用涡轮流量计测量燃油消耗量是实车测量发动机比油耗可行的方法。