Bayesian inference based on partial monitoring of components with applications to preventive system maintenance

Consider a binary, monotone system of n components. The assessment of the parameter vector, θ, of the joint distribution of the lifetimes of the components and hence of the reliability of the system is often difficult due to scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. For instance, prior knowledge is often of importance and can indeed conveniently be incorporated by the Bayesian approach. It may also be important to continuously extract information from a system currently in operation. This may be useful both for decisions concerning the system in operation as well as for decisions improving the components or changing the design of similar new systems. As in Meilijson [12], life‐monitoring of some components and conditional life‐monitoring of some others is considered. In addition to data arising from this monitoring scheme, so‐called autopsy data are observed, if not censored. The probabilistic structure underlying this kind of data is described, and basic likelihood formulae are arrived at. A thorough discussion of an important aspect of this probabilistic structure, the inspection strategy, is given. Based on a version of this strategy a procedure for preventive system maintenance is developed and a detailed application to a network system presented. All the way a Bayesian approach to estimation of θ is applied. For the special case where components are conditionally independent given θ with exponentially distributed lifetimes it is shown that the weighted sum of products of generalized gamma distributions, as introduced in Gåsemyr and Natvig [7], is the conjugate prior for θ. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 551–577, 2001.     

适应低时延业务需求的分布式可穿戴单兵作战信息系统

针对云计算应用在单兵作战系统场景下业务处理时延高、服务质量无法保障的问题,提出一种基于可穿戴计算的分布式单兵作战信息系统。利用士兵身上的可穿戴智能设备构建本地计算层,在作战地点就近处理计算数据,提供给士兵本地的信息处理与融合能力,并采用广义扩散负载均衡算法平衡各设备负载,降低业务处理时延;同时利用分布式计算的容错能力增强系统的可靠性。仿真结果表明,基于可穿戴设备的分布式本地网络架构能有效地降低作战任务的处理时延,同时增强系统的可靠性。     

Reforming the bras tendus? The Congolese National Police reforms, 2003–2016

The security sector reform (SSR) programme in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has failed, according to a former high-level member of the United Nations (UN) mission in the DRC, as a large section of the country remains outside government control, and the security institutions of the state continue to constitute one of the predominant sources of insecurity for the local population in a number of ways. Based on several field studies, this article critically scrutinises the SSR of the Congolese National Police (Police nationale congolaise; PNC) and the efforts to reform it between 2004 and 2016. It further attempts to explain why so little progress was made in the SSR of the PNC, despite extensive involvement from donors. The article shows that the instrumental and traditional approach to SSR is partly to blame, because in this case it failed to address the root problems and initiate the needed fundamental reform and reconstruction of the police force. It also shows that reforming local security institutions becomes even more difficult when the local authorities do not support the effort.     

一类二阶Hamilton系统周期解的存在性

Hamilton系统是非线性科学中的一个重要领域,很多人在超二次或次二次条件及其他一些条件下对Hamilton系统的周期解进行了研究。此文则研究了非自制二阶Hamilton系统在零点局部环绕及“非二次”条件下周期解的存在性,并利用局部紧性条件(C)条件以及极大极小方法证明了其周期解的存在性。     

基于Canny算子的小波域维纳滤波去噪方法

本文给出了一种利用Canny算子的小波域局部维纳滤波的图像去噪方法。先用二维小波对图像进行分解,在第一重维纳滤波时使用椭圆形方向窗估计信号的方差。在第二重维纳滤波时,使用Canny算子把图像分成边缘区域和非边缘区域,然后结合圆形窗估计信号的方差,再利用局部维纳滤波进行去噪。实验结果表明了本文方法的有效性。     

制导炸弹滚转通道混合灵敏度鲁棒控制器设计

制导炸弹在大空域飞行过程中受到外界干扰和未建模摄动都较大,为了适应较大摄动,采用混合灵敏度方法来设计鲁棒控制器.首先推导了包含S/T/R的广义受控对象的状态空间模型,将混合灵敏度问题化为标准H∞问题.然后针对混合灵敏度问题中如何选取权函数的关键性问题,讨论了权函数选取的一般原则,提出了权函数选取的一般方法,并尝试给出权函数的一般形式.最后采用该方法对制导炸弹滚转通道进行了控制器设计,仿真结果表明:H∞控制器有较好的鲁棒性能,且比传统PID控制有更好的时域性能.     

基于动态窗口的灰色加权填充算法及应用?

为解决复杂系统中单属性缺失数据填充困难问题,提出了基于动态窗口的灰色加权填充算法。该算法通过建立双向灰色预测模型,并采用模型精度评价系数加权填充缺失数据,有效增强了算法的准确性;提出基于灰色模型评价系数反馈的动态伸缩窗口概念,寻找产生最优模型的训练数据序列,使算法具有良好的鲁棒性和适应性。实验结果表明,该方法在RMSE和MA两项指标上均优于传统的双向灰插值、灰插值、多项式插值等方法。     

数据和导频通道的功率加权联合捕获算法

下一代全球导航卫星系统将采用数据和导频通道功率不等的调制方式,而传统算法多采用数据和导频通道的等权重加权联合进行捕获。当二者功率不相等时,等权重加权联合不能获得最优的捕获性能。因此提出功率加权联合的改进捕获算法,在数据和导频通道的功率分配不等的情况下,进行不同加权系数的联合捕获,并且利用最小二乘的方法进行最优加权系数的拟合估计。利用捕获判决量的特征函数推导检测和虚警概率。仿真实验验证了当数据和导频功率比为1∶3、检测概率为0.8、虚警概率为10-3时,所提出的改进算法能提升0.4 d B的捕获灵敏度。     

局部最大延迟检测抗转发欺骗干扰算法

接收机在进行窄带干扰抑制后,其输出信号的相关峰会发生分裂。使用传统的基于信号到达时间的抗转发欺骗干扰算法,会使得捕获锁定的相关值为真实信号的旁瓣。针对该问题提出一种基于局部相关值最大的时延检测方法,在真实信号相关峰分裂所产生的旁瓣与欺骗信号不重合前提下,通过对主瓣三个码片范围内最大值的搜索,保证捕获不会锁定在旁瓣,再选择局部最大值中的最早码相位点从而避免锁定到转发欺骗干扰。与传统的基于信号到达时间的抗转发欺骗干扰算法相比,在无窄带干扰情况下,所提算法性能相当;在存在窄带干扰情况下,其性能明显优于传统算法。通过数值仿真验证了方法的有效性。     

After ISAF: partners and proxies in Afghanistan after 2014

The conclusion of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan at the end of 2014 has generated substantial uncertainty about the duration and level of international commitment to Afghanistan. The fate of local allies of international forces is therefore deeply in doubt. This article is of necessity speculative rather than empirical, but it attempts to draw on the history of previous intervention in Afghanistan as well as more general patterns of local and external alliance to sketch plausible scenarios for the fate of local allies. It proceeds in four parts. First, it draws distinctions between different types of local allies in Afghanistan based on position and relationship to the Afghan state and an external actor. Second, it examines the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan for relevant lessons for the fate of local allies. Third, it presents a scenario based on the foregoing that assumes there will be an ongoing small but significant international military presence and accompanying resources. Fourth, it presents a scenario that assumes there will be no or minimal international military presence and accompanying resources.