战略后方仓库综合技术保障中心建设方案评估

构建了后方仓库综合技术保障中心建设方案综合评估指标体系,先运用多人层次分析法对评价指标进行主观赋权,再对指标权值加以客观修正,从而得到较为客观准确的综合权重,最后运用模糊综合评价法对若干备选方案进行评判,得到各备选方案的评级结果,并从中选择最优方案。算例分析表明,该方法能够较好地适用于建设方案的评价,得出的量化描述结果可以作为建设方案评判与选择的参考依据。     

Designing rewards-based crowdfunding campaigns for strategic (but distracted) contributors

In rewards-based crowdfunding, entrepreneurs solicit donations from a large number of individual contributors. If total donations exceed a prespecified funding target, the entrepreneur distributes nonmonetary rewards to contributors; otherwise, their donations are refunded. We study how to design such campaigns when contributors choose not just whether to contribute, but also when to contribute. We show that strategic contribution behavior—when contributors intentionally delay until campaign success is likely—can arise from the combination of nonrefundable (potentially very small) hassle costs and the risk of campaign failure, and can explain pledging patterns commonly observed in crowdfunding. Furthermore, such delays do not hurt the entrepreneur if contributors are perfectly rational, but they do if contributors are distracted, that is, if they might fail to return to the campaign after an intentional delay. To mitigate this, we find that an entrepreneur can use a simple menu of rewards with a fixed number of units sold at a low price, and an unlimited number sold at a higher price; this segments contributors over time based on the information they observe upon arrival. We show that, despite its simplicity, such a menu performs well compared to a theoretically optimal menu consisting of an infinite number of different rewards and price levels under many conditions.     

兵力增援微分对策优化模型及解法

研究了对抗双方的兵力增援问题 ,建立了兵力增援微分对策优化理论模型及其最优性条件 ,给出了兵力增援的最优策略。研究结果对作战方案的制定、评价和作战指挥决策具有理论指导意义。     

一种新的基于特征值分解的双站无源定位算法

在自卫式噪声干扰的条件下,地面制导雷达将无法得到目标的斜距信息,无法实现对目标的定位,此时只有采用雷达组网方式,利用2个或多个雷达站的测角信息来对空间目标进行定位。提出一种基于特征值分解的新的定位跟踪算法,该算法具有计算简单、清晰,运算量小的优点,仿真也表明该算法有较好的精度。     

基于静止标量磁强计的运动舰船定位问题的研究

建立了静止标量磁强计对运动舰船定位的模型,并给出了用遗传算法求全局较优解、然后用单纯形法进行精确局部搜索的求解参数的方法.仿真实验表明这种方法有效、可行.     

模糊多目标群决策的装备采办问题研究

对模糊多目标群决策的装备采办问题,根据模糊数学理论和多目标决策理论方法,综合现有各种方法的优点,给出了无约束条件下模糊多目标群决策的装备采办问题的一般解法,并通过实例说明了该方法的有效性及通用性。     

电流密度方程的相对论协变式

从相对论协变性原理出发,得到了电流密度方程满足相对论协变性的自洽展开式.研究表明,只有在考虑了磁场对电流密度的影响情况下,才能得到电流密度四维矢量的自洽的相对论协变式.为满足相对论协变性,电流密度关于电磁场的三阶近似方程应该包括电场强度的三次方非线性项.     

基于灰局势决策理论的维修级别分析方法

简要介绍了某型无人机维修级别分析及灰局势决策理论的一般概念,针对传统维修级别分析中经济性分析的数据来源广、模型可信度较差的情况,研究基于灰局势决策原理建模的一般方法,通过筛选原始数据并修正计算公式,大大减少了冗余计算,最后运用这一模型对某机载无线电设备进行了经济性分析。     

装备保障信息化研究初探

装备保障信息化是我军装备保障工作的发展方向,但目前尚无系统理论的指引,现借鉴外军经验,结合从事我军现阶段装备保障信息化工作的体会,较系统地对装备保障信息化的概念、外延、内涵、目标和建设原则与应优先考虑的问题等,作出了探索性地阐述,以期推动我军装备保障信息化理论的形成与发展.     

Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011