作战设计——制胜未来之道

一流军队设计战争。作战设计是战争设计的内核。作战设计发端于科技革命和战略需求,形成于战争设计工程,实化为作战概念、作战构想、作战方案等,核心是作战体系设计和作战方式设计,基本遵循是战争制胜机理。作战设计是改变未来战争"游戏规则"的重要手段,是连接战略需求与作战能力的桥梁,是探求未来战争是什么样、未来作战怎么打、打赢战争需要什么能力的根本途径,成为开启全面建成世界一流军队的新引擎。     

Spaghetti: systems thinking and the US Army

In the mid-2000s, the United States Army was embroiled in counterinsurgency missions in Iraq and Afghanistan that required deeper understanding of local social systems. The Army turned to systems thinking and design thinking to model and understand the world, define problems, and develop approaches to strategic and operational challenges. However, the Army’s approach as expressed in publications and doctrine encourages the development of complicated, unsupported, and unfalsifiable hypotheses. The risk is that the Army will act on incorrect assumptions and develop plans that are fragile.     

基于兵棋推演的赛事设计与组织

为了将基于兵棋推演的各类赛事活动组织的更加合理、规范和标准化,首先简述了组织兵棋推演活动所需的基本条件,而后通过大量实践经验,就如何组织赛事活动中所涉及的主要内容进行逐一的过程化设计描述,最后从推演准备、推演实施和复盘总结三个方面阐述了赛事活动的组织与实施,为今后从事相关工作的组织和人员提供一种可靠方法。     

Algorithm to solve a chance‐constrained network capacity design problem with stochastic demands and finite support

We consider the problem of determining the capacity to assign to each arc in a given network, subject to uncertainty in the supply and/or demand of each node. This design problem underlies many real‐world applications, such as the design of power transmission and telecommunications networks. We first consider the case where a set of supply/demand scenarios are provided, and we must determine the minimum‐cost set of arc capacities such that a feasible flow exists for each scenario. We briefly review existing theoretical approaches to solving this problem and explore implementation strategies to reduce run times. With this as a foundation, our primary focus is on a chance‐constrained version of the problem in which α% of the scenarios must be feasible under the chosen capacity, where α is a user‐defined parameter and the specific scenarios to be satisfied are not predetermined. We describe an algorithm which utilizes a separation routine for identifying violated cut‐sets which can solve the problem to optimality, and we present computational results. We also present a novel greedy algorithm, our primary contribution, which can be used to solve for a high quality heuristic solution. We present computational analysis to evaluate the performance of our proposed approaches. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 236–246, 2016     

微纳卫星姿态确定与控制半实物仿真系统设计

航天器姿态控制系统需要特殊的运行环境,在地面很难考核,这给系统可靠性带来一定的风险。针对微纳卫星的特点,设计并研制了一套面向微纳卫星的姿态确定与控制半实物仿真系统。该系统通过数字化模型模拟卫星姿态轨道运动、敏感器模型产生敏感器测量数据、执行器模型生成控制力矩、敏感器模拟器实现通信协议,最终实现姿态控制系统的全系统仿真。这套系统可以接入卫星控制系统回路,实现对姿控系统软件、硬件的考核,同时验证算法的性能。基于该系统,对天拓三号卫星姿控系统进行地面半实物仿真,并对比在轨试验数据,结果表明系统设计合理,仿真结果可信。     

频率匹配准则的某型机枪自动机结构参数优化

首先分析了影响某型重机枪射击精度的影响因素,并以武器频率匹配准则为依据,以建立的机枪动力学虚拟样机模型为平台,通过灵敏度分析,找出导气孔横截面积、活塞的有效横截面积、枪机框质量、枪机质量和枪机框缓冲簧刚度等参数是影响武器射击频率的主要因素;利用序列二次规划优化方法对自动机结构参数进行优化,优化仿真结果表明,武器的射向一致性得到明显提高,这对于武器结构方案优化设计,提高武器射击精度是至关重要的。     

飞机再次出动保障活动设计方法

飞机再次出动保障活动所需时间长短对提升飞机的作战效能至关重要,针对当前在飞机保障资源有限约束条件下,再次出动保障活动工期最短难以实现的难题,提出了基于分支切割法的再次出动保障活动时间优化方法。该方法以飞机再次出动保障活动所需时间最短为目标,以有限的保障人员和保障作业间逻辑关系为约束条件,可计算出时间最短的飞机再次出动保障活动具体流程,并用VB6.0编制成计算机程序,开发了飞机再次出动保障活动分析系统。最后,对某型飞机真实保障活动进行了实例分析,结果表明,使用该方法计算得到的结果准确、可靠,与实际保障情况相符,可为飞机再次出动保障与决策提供指导,提升保障活动的自动化水平,具有很好的工程应用价值。     

小子样多失效模式系统可靠性竞争模型

为解决小子样多失效模式系统可靠性模型参数的估计问题,首先应用支持向量积建立小子样条件下各故障模式的规律模型,其次利用模型将各故障模式的故障数据由小子样扩充成大样本,再次采用常规的参数估算方法估算各故障模式的分布参数,最后建立多失效模式系统的可靠性竞争模型。利用所提方法,建立了小子样条件下具有两种失效模式的柴油机汽缸套可靠性竞争模型,计算结果与大样本条件下的故障预测数据吻合度较高,说明了方法的有效性。     

基于ANP维修保障系统结构设计影响因素分析

针对装备维修保障系统结构设计影响因素多、设计过程易耦合等问题,提出了一种基于网络分析(ANP)的维修保障系统结构设计影响因素网络模型和方法。首先,以维修保障系统结构设计影响因素定量研究为控制层目标,以作战任务系统、保障对象系统等为网络层的因素集,建立维修保障系统结构设计影响因素的网络模型;其次,运用网络分析方法定量地确定维修保障系统结构设计各个因素的影响综合权重及排序,明确设计时应优先考虑的关键因素。通过具体分析,证明了此方法的正确性和实用性。     

Rose-tinted lenses: how American functionalist strategy inhibits our appreciation of complex conflicts

Strategists and military professionals have previously questioned many of the methodological (theoretical underpinnings, the principles, and rules applied by the discipline) decisions associated with American military strategy, but the direction this essay takes is above and beyond the common methodological rivalries in how we pursue strategic desired future states. To get beyond methodological disputes entirely, we must consider thinking about our thinking as an organization on American strategy. Thus, this article hovers between philosophies, organizational theory, as well as our usually unquestioned belief in something called “strategy”. Questioning things about our basic understanding of the world tends to trigger strong organizational defense mechanisms, for good reason. Critical reflection at deep levels puts our worldview, and our role within it at stake. Nonetheless, as strategic disappointment emerges over multiple complex conflict developments, even the most cherished and guarded choices on how the world ought to work are ripe for critical inquiry. This essay examines the limited single strategic paradigm of the US defense industry and how the latest American National Security Strategy and Army Future Operating Concept (Win in a Complex World through 2030) presents a flawed strategic position. This essay presents valid alternative strategies that operate within different paradigmatic constructs.