BP组合预测方法在维修保障费用预测中的应用

通过对时间序列预测方法和回归分析原理的分析,建立了适用于武器装备维修保障费用的BP网络组合预测的时间序列多输出模型,并结合某型装备多年的维修保障费用,进行了预测数据仿真,得出的结果与实际的数据相比误差较小,具有较大的理论价值和实际的军事价值,有利于提高维修保障费用的效益,有利于实现装备的优良效费比。     

数据基故障诊断算法更新问题研究

机内测试被广泛应用于故障诊断、装备健康管理与预测等领域。针对机内测试设备在设计和升级时遇到的分类器更新、样本数量不平衡、硬件条件限制问题,提出初步解决方案。利用基于密度的聚类和人工免疫方法处理原始数据;提出基于代表样本点的混合学习方法;利用支持向量机和仿真案例验证所提方法。结果表明所提方法能够解决上述问题,有助于基于数据的机内测试设备设计与升级。     

Block replacement policies for a two‐component system with failure dependence

Block replacement and modified block replacement policies for two‐component systems with failure dependence and economic dependence are considered in this paper. Opportunistic maintenance policies are also considered. Where tractable, long‐run costs per unit time are calculated using renewal theory based arguments; otherwise simulation studies are carried out. The management implications for the adoption of the various policies are discussed. The usefulness of the results in the paper is illustrated through application to a particular two‐component system. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

基于虚拟样机的导弹维修训练仿真系统

以虚拟样机技术为基础 ,提出了装备虚拟维修训练系统建设总体方案 ,主要用于解决目前武器装备维修训练采用实物、实兵、实地训练 ,日常训练成本高、危险性大、训练效率与训练效果有待提高的问题。采用虚拟样机技术开发的装备维修仿真训练系统是解决目前武器装备维修训练突出问题的有效途径。该系统的实现 ,对于解决目前存在的复杂装备维修训练问题有重要意义     

关于装备保障法规体系建设的思考

新形势、新体制下,装备保障法规体系建设是装备系统一项重要工作,也是一个比较新的研究课题。在阐述了装备保障法规体系建设意义的基础上,并就如何开展该体系建设和处理有关问题方面提出了若干建议。     

岛屿进攻作战装甲装备保障面临的问题及对策

高技术条件下的岛屿进攻作战,具有战斗激烈、消耗巨大、保障困难等特点。装甲装备保障面临保障任务重、范围广、时效性强、要求高和保障行动难以展开等现实问题。通过分析岛屿进攻作战对装甲装备保障造成的影响,探讨了在岛屿进攻作战中装甲装各保障的对策。     

Building Legitimacy: Interactional Dynamics and the Popular Evaluation of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey

Abstract

Previous research has identified a variety of general mechanisms to explain how insurgents build legitimacy. Yet, there is often a gap between these mechanisms and the interactional dynamics of insurgencies. This article attempts to bridge this gap through a theoretically informed analysis of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s (PKK) insurgency in Turkey. I show how the PKK’s efforts to cultivate legitimacy, Turkey’s counterinsurgency strategies, and civilian perceptions of the PKK, all mutually influenced one another. Based on this analysis, I argue that the mechanisms that produce popular legitimacy coevolve with insurgents’ behaviors, states’ interventions, and civilians’ perceptions.     

应用于飞控系统评估的风洞虚拟飞行试验系统与关键技术分析

基于传统意义上的飞控系统评估方法的不足,分析了风洞虚拟飞行试验应用于飞控系统评估的优势;按飞控系统常用的姿态控制回路及制导控制回路的组成形式,介绍了风洞虚拟飞行试验系统方案与工作原理,详细分析了它与半实物仿真系统的差异;分析了风洞虚拟飞行试验应用于飞控系统评估需解决的关键技术问题,包括风洞虚拟飞行试验评估方法、飞行器模型设计技术、飞控系统改进技术及模型支撑技术。     

‘A Sledgehammer to Crack a Nut’? Naval Gunfire Support During the Malayan Emergency

The utility of naval gunfire support (NGS) during the Malayan Emergency has been the subject of significant scrutiny. While the limitations of NGS were demonstrated in Malaya, it also has proven to be extremely useful under certain circumstances. The circumstances in which NGS has proven effective during earlier and later insurgencies have generally reflected those of the Malayan Emergency. Recent operations in Afghanistan and Iraq have been less conducive to the application of maritime power, but they did not denote the end of the naval role or the potential usefulness of NGS in counterinsurgency operations. NGS is an unheralded capability, but, aside from the historical significance, it remains relevant in the contemporary era under the right conditions.     

数字化部队保障装备能力需求满足度评价模型

针对数字化部队保障装备不能较好的执行战时装备保障任务,依据部队作战和保障的特点和实际,运用IDEF 3方法形式化描述了作战和保障任务基本流程。为了提高指标体系的全面性和适用性,从满足装备执行作战和保障任务需求角度出发,按照"保障活动-保障能力-保障效果"逻辑关系逐步分析,在依据相关原则和进行重要度、稳定度判定的基础上,确立了数字化部队保障装备能力需求满足度评价指标体系。为提供指标权重的客观性和准确性,采用改进的群体层次分析法(IGAHP)对评价指标赋权。针对评价过程中的模糊性和随机性,运用云理论实现指标聚合和综合评价。最后,以某部队保障装备为对象进行示例评价,验证了模型的合理性和适用性。