动态系统可靠性分析的新概念

传统可靠性分析的概念只能描述静态逻辑关系,不能满足现代复杂动态系统可靠性分析的需要。在给出动态系统状态空间结构和结构函数的基础上,提出失效序列和失效丛的概念描述动态系统的故障模式,这一概念扩展了传统可靠性分析的概念,将割集、蕴含集等作为其在静态情形的特例。给出动态系统部件的概率重要度、结构重要度以及关键重要度的概念,用实例对提出的有关概念进行了说明。     

Heart analytics: Analytical modeling of cardiovascular care

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death and disability both in the United States and worldwide. Despite high morbidity, mortality, and cost in the United States and global healthcare systems, cardiovascular care has been understudied in the healthcare operations management literature. In this paper, we identify research opportunities for healthcare operations management scholars to aid in improving cardiovascular care. We focus on three burdensome conditions, including (1) coronary artery disease, (2) stroke, and (3) heart failure, which, collectively, lead to the vast majority of CVD‐caused mortality and disability. For each condition, we characterize a typical patient's journey in receiving cardiovascular care, elucidating key challenges in improving care and outlining research questions for healthcare operations management scholars. We close with a reference to new research opportunities that emerge as artificial intelligence is likely to transform much of cardiovascular care.     

Cooperative interception with fast multiple model adaptive estimation

For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target, the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target, which performs a bang For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target, the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target, which performs a bang-bang evasive maneuver with a random switching time. Combined Fast multiple model adaptive estimation (Fast MMAE) algorithm, the cooperative guidance law takes detection configuration affecting the accuracy of interception into consideration. Introduced the detection error model related to the line-of-sight (LOS) separation angle of two interceptors, an optimal cooperative guidance law solving the optimization problem is designed to modulate the LOS separation angle to reduce the estimation error and improve the interception performance. Due to the uncertainty of the target bang-bang maneuver switching time and the effective fitting of its multi-modal motion, Fast MMAE is introduced to identify its maneuver switching time and estimate the acceleration of the target to track and intercept the target accurately. The designed cooperative optimal guidance law with Fast MMAE has better estimation ability and interception performance than the traditional guidance law and estimation method via Monte Carlo simulation.     

自修复飞控系统故障检测与隔离软件系统

介绍了一个自修复飞行控制系统故障检测和隔离实时工程软件系统,该系统按照软件工程规范、采用等价空间法和残差向量的概率信息融合法研制和开发,不仅能对飞行控制系统的突变故障——作动器卡死故障和控制舵面损伤故障进行实时检测和隔离,而且具有良好的用户界面。仿真研究表明该软件系统具有良好的鲁棒性和实时性。     

A comparative study of three tool replacement/operation sequencing strategies in a flexible manufacturing system

This paper studies three tool replacement/operation sequencing strategies for a flexible manufacturing system over a finite time horizon: (1) failure replacement—replace the tool only upon failure, (2) optimal preventive tool replacement for a fixed sequence of operations, and (3) joint scheduling of the optimal preventive tool replacement times and the optimal sequence of operations. Stochastic dynamic decision models are used for strategies 2 and 3. The optimization criterion for strategies 2 and 3 is the minimization of the total expected cost over the finite time horizon. We will show through numerical studies that, with the same amount of information, the total expected costs can be reduced considerably by choosing an optimal strategy. Our conclusion is that in flexible manufacturing, optimal tool replacement and optimal operations sequencing are not separate issues. They should be considered jointly to minimize the expected total cost. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 479–499, 2000     

海上机动目标群威胁预警建模及仿真实现

在陆基弹道导弹与海上机动目标的攻防作战过程中,需要研究双方火力控制范围的变化情况,并对海上机动目标群的威胁进行报警.根据海上机动目标运动特性,提出用灰色模型与自回归时序AR组合建模方法构建机动目标运动预测模型.依据此模型对双方火力控制区的变化进行预测,最后给出了海上机动目标威胁预警仿真系统的实现思路.解决了陆基弹道导弹对抗海上机动目标群的作战保障工程的部分问题,具有较强军事应用价值.     

基于似然比检验的橡胶密封件加速试验机理一致性判别方法

加速退化试验广泛应用于橡胶密封件等长寿命产品的可靠性评估,试验过程中需要将高应力水平下的试验结果外推到正常应力水平。要获得准确的产品可靠性评估结果,需要保证加速应力下的退化失效机理与正常应力下的退化失效机理一致。基于似然比检验原理,提出加速退化试验机理一致性判别方法及流程。针对失效机理一致与失效机理变化两种场合,提出对数线性及非对数线性两类加速模型,并结合混合效应模型描述产品退化过程。利用似然比检验判断加速模型参数是否变化,完成失效机理一致性判别。仿真算例和应用实例表明,该方法能够有效判别橡胶密封件失效机理是否变化,并找到失效机理不变的应力水平边界。     

实兵演习战场态势研究

实兵演习战场态势是指挥员通过实战化训练提升获取战场情况、指挥部队行动能力的重要支撑和手段。首先针对当前实兵演习战场态势存在的数据结构、传输机制、系统架构和聚合显示等重点难点问题进行了详细地阐述和分析,然后在此基础上提出了态势数据结构的层次化设计、按需公布订购的数据传输机制、态势框架的柔性化设计和基于作战能力的态势聚合机制等相关的解决方法。以期能够建立一个支持大规模、分布式联合应用,并且可以显示综合战场态势和专用战场态势的战场态势系统。     

弯曲载荷作用下复合材料T型接头的失效分析

运用蔡-吴逐步失效判据和黏聚接触模型建立弯曲加载下的T型接头的有限元模型。对复合材料T型接头在弯曲加载下的损伤机理和承载能力进行数值模拟。结合静态弯曲加载实验,揭示T型接头在弯曲破坏过程中的四种失效模式。T型接头的弯曲失效载荷的有限元模型计算结果与实测值吻合较好。     

基于区域定位重要度指标的GPS失效性分析

空间几何构型是决定GPS定位精度的关键因素之一。采用概率统计的思想,基于区域定位重要度指标算法,通过分析计算不同空间几何构型的几何精度系数,寻求对区域定位精度影响最大的卫星构型。在此基础上对GPS卫星进行重要度排序,并对GPS星座失效性进行分析。结果表明:此方法能有效找出对区域定位精度影响最大的卫星构型,并且避免了大规模仿真计算,快捷有效。