地球静止轨道高能电子通量在线预测模型

利用粒子群优化算法和最小二乘支持向量机,建立地球静止轨道高能电子通量在线预测模型。针对粒子群优化算法,提出一种新的粒子群多样性测度计算方法,有效改善其早熟收敛现象。运用改进的粒子群优化算法优化最小二乘支持向量机的正则化参数和核参数。利用滑动时间窗口策略更新模型数据,选择触发机制以及模型的再学习机制为设计变量,实现模型的在线预测功能。对2000年电子通量监测数据和相关太阳风、地磁参数等实际数据进行的提前1~3天的预测实验,表明所建在线预测模型具有较高的预测性能,并具有一定的实用价值。     

一种改进的基于交互式模型的机动目标跟踪算法

针对传统的以匀速(CV)或匀加速(CA)运动作为目标运动模型的卡尔曼跟踪滤波器的计算量大及跟踪精度低的固有缺陷,提出了一种基于CV和CA的交互式卡尔曼滤波模型的机动目标跟踪算法,该算法能在保持直线运动跟踪精度不变的前提下,使做曲线运动的目标的跟踪精度逼近做直线运动的目标的跟踪精度。并将CV和CA模型混合起来进行仿真估计,系统仿真结果表明该算法提高了系统的跟踪精度。     

任职教育中实施模拟演练的研究与实践

模拟演练是突出岗位任职教育特点的手段和方法。对开展模拟演练进行思考,提出应把握的三个问题,并进行思考总结。     

Approximation results for min‐max path cover problems in vehicle routing

This article studies a min‐max path cover problem, which is to determine a set of paths for k capacitated vehicles to service all the customers in a given weighted graph so that the largest path cost is minimized. The problem has wide applications in vehicle routing, especially when the minimization of the latest service completion time is a critical performance measure. We have analyzed four typical variants of this problem, where the vehicles have either unlimited or limited capacities, and they start from either a given depot or any depot of a given depot set. We have developed approximation algorithms for these four variants, which achieve approximation ratios of max{3 ‐ 2/k,2}, 5, max{5 ‐ 2/k,4}, and 7, respectively. We have also analyzed the approximation hardness of these variants by showing that, unless P = NP , it is impossible for them to achieve approximation ratios less than 4/3, 3/2, 3/2, and 2, respectively. We have further extended the techniques and results developed for this problem to other min‐max vehicle routing problems.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

弹着时间可控的机动目标多弹协同制导律

针对机动目标的多导弹齐射攻击,运用最优控制和卡尔曼滤波理论探索机动目标下弹着时间可控制导律问题。设计了一种最优弹着时间可控的制导律,它由指定弹着时间和预计弹着时间的误差作为反馈信号与传统比例制导律结合推导得出,称之为弹着时间可控制导律（Impact-time-control Guidance Law,简称ITCG）,同时利用卡尔曼滤波估计了目标加速度。通过对作战模型情况的仿真,可以看出这种新型的制导律应用于引导多发导弹以指定时间同时攻击目标时的有效性和可行性。     

目标摆式机动对反导舰炮射击精度的影响

为了探讨目标机动对舰炮武器系统射击精度的影响,采用仿真方法计算了目标末端摆式机动时近程反导舰炮武器系统的命中概率,以图示方式给出多种机动周期、多种摆幅、2种射速条件下的计算结果.结果表明,较小周期的摆式机动可显著降低舰炮武器系统命中概率,提高舰炮射速是增大对机动目标命中概率的有效途径.     

重型鱼雷的机动搜索及机动搜索弹道架构

针对潜射重型鱼雷在技术性能上的大幅提高和智能化作战的需要,在提出并分析鱼雷机动搜索概念和机动搜索时机的基础上,研究了远程重型鱼雷实现机动搜索在弥补发射平台目标定位误差、鱼雷发射后目标的有意机动和适应点对域攻击战法转变等作战环节中的必要性,构建了重型鱼雷机动搜索弹道的技术框架.     

机动目标跟踪误差CRLB计算与分析

克拉美-罗下限(CRLB)作为参数估计所能达到的最低误差限,常被用来衡量算法估计性能的优劣程度。以转弯机动为例,研究了有源(主动)和无源(被动)两种观测条件下目标跟踪CRLB计算的一般方法,并通过矩阵理论分析了目标机动可能引起的CRLB突变的原因,为机动目标跟踪的算法性能评估提供了有效手段。最后给出了仿真算例。     

Periodic review inventory management with contingent use of two freight modes with fixed costs

We study a stochastic inventory model of a firm that periodically orders a product from a make‐to‐order manufacturer. Orders can be shipped by a combination of two freight modes that differ in lead‐times and costs, although orders are not allowed to cross. Placing an order as well as each use of each freight mode has a fixed and a quantity proportional cost. The decision of how to allocate units between the two freight modes utilizes information about demand during the completion of manufacturing. We derive the optimal freight mode allocation policy, and show that the optimal policy for placing orders is not an (s,S) policy in general. We provide tight bounds for the optimal policy that can be calculated by solving single period problems. Our analysis enables insights into the structure of the optimal policy specifying the conditions under which it simplifies to an (s,S) policy. We characterize the best (s,S) policy for our model, and through extensive numerical investigation show that its performance is comparable with the optimal policy in most cases. Our numerical study also sheds light on the benefits of the dual freight model over the single freight models. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

反舰导弹机动与导引配合的弹道设计研究

传统反舰导弹的末端机动与导引是分别进行的,这使得突防效果的提升受限。为了达到提高突防概率和实现高精度导引的双重目的,需要在导弹的末段实现机动与导引协同配合的设计。利用弹目之间的几何关系,规划设计了根据弹目实时连线进行自适应蛇行机动的程序参考信号。整个设计可以看作比例导引法与蛇行机动的复合,利用的信号包括实测的雷达方位角信号、弹目距离与预先设计好的时间指令。