目标选择的一个优化模型

坦克作战过程中 ,经常出现一个坦克群遭遇对方一个坦克群的情况 ,这时每辆坦克往往向威胁自身最大的目标开火 ,但这种选择的整体效果不一定最优。本文提出一种目标选择方法 ,使得最大限度地减轻了对方对己方的威胁 ,大大提高了作战坦克对敌杀伤效果     

Estimating the probability that a simulated system will be the best

Consider a stochastic simulation experiment consisting of v independent vector replications consisting of an observation from each of k independent systems. Typical system comparisons are based on mean (long‐run) performance. However, the probability that a system will actually be the best is sometimes more relevant, and can provide a very different perspective than the systems' means. Empirically, we select one system as the best performer (i.e., it wins) on each replication. Each system has an unknown constant probability of winning on any replication and the numbers of wins for the individual systems follow a multinomial distribution. Procedures exist for selecting the system with the largest probability of being the best. This paper addresses the companion problem of estimating the probability that each system will be the best. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the multinomial cell probabilities for a set of v vector replications across k systems are well known. We use these same v vector replications to form v^k unique vectors (termed pseudo‐replications) that contain one observation from each system and develop estimators based on AVC (All Vector Comparisons). In other words, we compare every observation from each system with every combination of observations from the remaining systems and note the best performer in each pseudo‐replication. AVC provides lower variance estimators of the probability that each system will be the best than the MLEs. We also derive confidence intervals for the AVC point estimators, present a portion of an extensive empirical evaluation and provide a realistic example. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 341–358, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10019     

基于改进AHP与集对分析法的防空兵群阵地选择

防空兵群阵地选择是防空兵力部署的前提条件,阵地选择与配置的正确与否是防空兵部队能否有效进行抗击敌空袭兵器的一个重要因素.在分析以往防空阵地优选方法不足的基础上,提出了基于改进的层次分析与集对分析的多因素优选方法,建立了防空兵群配置地域方案优选的模型.通过实例分析了影响防空兵群阵地选择的相关因素,确定了配置地域优选的指标体系,用三标度法确定指标因素的权重,以相对贴近度的大小对待选阵地进行优选和排序.该方法能够定性与定量相结合,模型简单规范,为防空兵群阵地优选提供了一种有效的方法和途径.     

基于UML的兵力机动辅助决策软件设计

首先简要介绍了UML的建模体系,然后在使用UML对兵力机动辅助决策软件进行功能需求分析的基础上,进行了问题领域分析,建立了软件的静态和动态模型,并将该软件系统的各种要素、事件和活动,分别在时间和空间上进行了描述,方便开发人员之间的交流,为系统的分析、设计、维护及扩展提供了有利的支持,为兵力机动辅助决策软件系统的研制奠定了基础.     

模糊多属性群决策与潜艇作战方案优选

分析了潜艇作战方案的优选实质是一个模糊多属性的群决策过程,建立了模糊多属性群决策的一般模型,介绍了一种以模糊理想解与模糊负理想解同时作为参照基准,以海明距离作为测度工具,以相对贴近度作为衡量标准的模糊折衷型多属性群决策方法,应用实例表明此方法可行有效。     

空间站零燃料大角度姿态机动路径存在性分析

零燃料大角度姿态机动技术是新近应用在国际空间站的新概念姿态控制技术。构造了以控制力矩陀螺为执行机构的空间站姿态控制动力学模型,在此基础上,建立了空间站本体与控制力矩陀螺之间的角动量守恒关系。针对各类大角度姿态机动任务,通过分析空间站惯量参数与控制力矩陀螺性能参数之间的解析关系,得到了零燃料大角度姿态机动路径的存在性条件。通过规划算例验证了存在性分析的正确性。所提出的零燃料大角度姿态机动存在性条件,为姿态机动路径的存在性判断提供了便捷可行的方法,为零燃料大角度姿态机动技术未来在我国空间站实施的可行性论证提供重要的理论依据。     

基于非平面机动的弹炮对抗仿真

为探讨反舰导弹非平面机动对舰炮武器系统反导能力的影响,仿真计算了反导舰炮对末端作摆式机动和螺旋机动目标的命中概率,分别给出了不同机动周期、不同机动幅度、不同舰炮射速时的命中概率图线。结果表明,非平面机动无需大幅度机动就能很好抑制反导舰炮的反导能力;且螺旋机动突防效果更好;而舰炮射速对舰炮武器系统的反导能力至关重要。     

基于战例数据的制胜要素选择方法

针对战争制胜机理定量研究需求,提出了一种基于混合评估的制胜要素选择算法。针对战例数据特点,该算法选择两种过滤方法分别从不同方面对要素全集进行评估排序而后加权得到综合排序结果;将结果作为遗传算法的初始种群,而后以分类精度作为个体适应度函数。选择几种典型的分类器综合比较,筛选出规模较小、性能较好的要素子集。测试结果表明,该算法不仅能有效地减少要素子集规模,还可以进一步提高制胜机理分析模型的准确率和效率。     

Terrorism research: should we focus on the opponent or on our own people?

In terrorism research, three different sources of information and data exist: the terrorists and their environment; the incidents; and the population. This article discusses the strengths and weaknesses of research that is concerned with, or relies on, any of the mentioned sources. An in-depth understanding of the methodological issues that come with these sources is important to correctly interpret results from scientific studies. It is highlighted how the different scientific approaches add to a holistic view of terrorism as a phenomenon. Furthermore, the double-edged sword of information in the field of terrorism is discussed. From these deliberations, guidance concerning the future work of both scholars and decision-makers can be deducted.     

飞机电磁弹射系统发展及其关键技术

总结论述了美国和英法国家的飞机电磁弹系统工程化应用研制的发展状况,综述了电磁弹射用直线电机的方案选型设计、仿真技术、性能优化和控制方法等方面的关键技术和研究现状,针对电磁弹射技术的发展前景和应用给出了相关建议,为国内电磁弹射相关技术的发展提供了借鉴。