DESIGNING A VIABLE PREDICTION MARKET TO FORECAST DEFENSE ACQUISITION COST AND SCHEDULE OUTCOMES

This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision‐making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to ‘bet’ on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market’s beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest.     

Estimating defence budget saving from disarmament: the United States’ case

Probing the technology in the production of US national defence by using a dynamic cost‐function model with adjustment costs, this paper evaluates the effect of reducing the level of national defence on the defence budget saving. Our inquiry involves estimating the defence production structure without output data for non‐market goods that are normally unavailable. Our findings include: (i) the United States behaves rationally to minimize cost in the production of national defence; (ii) the adjustment costs are larger in disarmament than in military build‐up; (iii) due to the adjustment costs peculiar to disarmament, the defence budget saving from disarmament appears small, but cutbacks allow great savings on the defence budget.     

The Effects of Terrorism on Turkish Financial Markets

Abstract

In this research, we analyzed how Turkish financial markets and foreign investors in the stock market reacted to the terror attacks in Turkey. Our analysis, which was performed using the terror index for the stock market and the foreign exchange market, revealed that returns, abnormal returns, and cumulative abnormal returns were not affected by the terror attacks; however, foreign investors in the stock market were affected. When the geographic regions of the terror attacks were analyzed, the findings showed that foreign investors were negatively affected mainly by the terror attacks that occurred in southeast Anatolia. Attack type and target type were important only for foreign investors. An evaluation of the interaction between the terror attacks and the markets with the involvement of the terrorist organizations indicated that only the foreign investors in the stock market were affected by Al-Qaeda and PKK-linked terror attacks. An evaluation of the effect of terror attacks in foreign countries on Turkish financial markets revealed no effect on the domestic stock market and foreign exchange markets. We also examined the volatility spillovers from the terror index to the stock market and found that terrorist attacks increased the volatility of the stock market.     

Better is the Neighbor?

Abstract

This study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM), to investigate the convergence properties of the military expenditure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the period of 1990–2015. Compared to the traditional methods, SPSM considers fundamentally general spatial homogeneous and heterogeneous relationships with countries and examines the evolution of military expenditure. We find that four-fifths of NATO member countries have been convergent with the UK, but no country’s military expenditure is convergent with the US. This means that there is no significant linkage effect in the US for NATO military expenditure. While they are allies of the US, the majority of NATO member countries’ military expenditures are consistent with UK military expenditure. The main reasons are due to the geographical space layout and the international relationship convergence. The results indicate that more than four-fifths of NATO member countries have been coordinated with convergence theory and spillover effect.     

概念模型验证方法研究综述

概念模型验证是保证和提高仿真可信性的重要手段,是建模与仿真VV＆A中的重点和难点．首先将概念模型的验证方法划分为非形式化方法、静态方法、动态方法和形式化方法4类,并提出了一种基于本体推理的概念模型验证方法,然后对各种方法的基本思想、基本原理、基本过程、适用对象、优缺点进行全面的分析总结,明确了各种方法的优缺点和适用范围,为如何选用各种验证方法提供参考,也明确了下一步应重点研究的问题．     

预定相遇态势的潜射鱼雷射击及其技术方法

为发挥鱼雷的作战效能,提出潜射鱼雷有利相遇态势的概念,指出当一次转角射击不能满足鱼雷以有利相遇态势接近并发现目标时,各种自导方式的鱼雷均需要二次转角射击。在给出二次转角射击时机、解算模型的基础上,着重对预定相遇态势射击的关键----二次转向点的选择问题进行了系统研究,引入基于鱼雷自导探测距离的二次转向点与预定相遇点之间距离的选择方法,使得二次转向点的选择更具合理性和针对性,且适用于包括直航鱼雷在内的各种鱼雷。     

失去润滑条件下弧齿锥齿轮传动系统瞬态温度场Simulink仿真分析

根据传热学理论和热网络法,以某型直升机尾减速器弧齿锥齿轮传动系统为研究对象,建立了其温度场Simulink仿真计算模型。基于该模型,计算获得该传动系统正常润滑条件下的稳态温度场,并以它作为初始条件计算分析该传动系统失去润滑条件下的瞬态温度场,为预测该弧齿锥齿轮传动系统在失去润滑条件下的干运转生存能力提供理论依据。     

防空兵网络化作战指挥控制方式

信息化条件下防空兵作战依托防空兵指挥信息系统,已经将防空兵各个作战要素联结到了一起,初步具备了网络化作战的雏形.而恰当的指挥控制方式是实施高效防空兵网络化作战的关键问题之一.首先剖析了防空兵网络化作战给指挥控制带来的新特点,而后构建了防空兵网络化作战指挥控制方式的概念模型,在此基础上提出了适应防空兵网络化作战的指挥控制方式是自适应指挥控制方式.并研究了防空兵网络化作战实施自适应指挥控制方式的必要性、可行性、内在机理以及实现的途径.     

基于HLA的防区外空面导弹攻防对抗仿真

针对HLA/RTI在接口规范、对象模型模板等关键技术建立分布式仿真平台的复杂性,提出了利用数字武器开发平台进行开发的方法,构建防区外空面导弹攻防对抗系统体系结构,实现了该体系结构联邦成员划分、设计联邦/仿真对象模型表等HLA仿真关键技术,并采用面向对象建模与仿真技术建立了各联邦成员的数学模型.该仿真结果表明,各联邦成员的数学模型与底层支撑环境能够相互分离,仿真模型具有良好的交互性和互操作性,可通过添加或删除联邦成员仿真不同的复杂战场想定,并可作为验证不同算例的仿真平台.     

基于区间数理论的空战目标威胁评估

针对空战目标威胁评估问题,提出了一种新的基于区间数理论的评估方法。在分析了现有的目标威胁评估方法中距离威胁模型存在不足的基础上,提出了改进的距离威胁模型。给出了区间数特征向量法求解威胁指标权重的计算步骤,建立了基于区间数理论的空战目标威胁评估的数学模型。最后给出了仿真算例,仿真结果表明该方法是合理和有效的。