基于人员素质差距的装备保障训练需求分析过程研究

针对目前新型装备缺乏系统规范的保障训练需求分析方法的问题,借鉴国内外训练和培训需求分析的理论和方法,基于人员素质差距,建立了我军装备保障训练需求分析过程模型,并结合案例对过程的实现步骤进行了说明,增强了训练需求的针对性和合理性。     

装备保障训练业务工程理论及体系构想

为适应信息化条件下装备保障训练转型的需要,提出装备保障训练业务工程理论研究构想。在研究装备保障训练业务工程概念的基础上,初步构建其理论体系,分析了该理论的特点,为装备保障训练系统研究提供了一种新的思路,对于促进装备保障训练工作的发展和改进具有一定的参考价值。     

装备采办中的讨价还价博弈模型

竞争性谈判是一种重要的武器装备采办方式,军方与承包商之间的谈判是一个重复博弈过程,双方谈判的本质是讨价还价。分析了轮流出价的讨价还价模型,对轮流出价博弈的子博弈精炼均衡进行了论述;在轮流出价模型的基础上建立了同时出价的讨价还价模型,并对2种模型的特点进行了分析;通过案例对2个模型的均衡结果进行了对比。分析结果显示：同时出价的讨价还价模型更能有效解决实际问题,更具有现实意义。     

故障预测与健康管理技术的应用与发展

基于故障预测与健康管理（Prognostics and Health Management,PHM）系统框架,分析了PHM技术在装备维修保障中的重要意义,概述了PHM技术的发展过程及应用现状,重点讨论了当前故障预测与健康管理所采用的关键技术,包括先进传感器技术、数据传输技术、数据挖掘与信息融合技术、健康评估与故障预测技术、智能推理与决策支持技术等,最后展望了PHM技术的发展趋势。     

数据挖掘在器材保障决策支持中的应用研究

针对器材保障现状,运用数据挖掘技术,探索器材保障决策支持问题.设计了器材保障决策支持系统中数据挖掘应用的解决方案,该方案包括了项目规划和应用设计,并以器材平时消耗预测为例,运用多元回归模型算,法进行了挖掘实现.数据挖掘为保障决策提供了更加丰富和科学的信息,可以较好地满足器材保障决策支持的需要.     

一种快速评定通信设备战损等级的方法

为解决通信设备战损等级评定中存在的问题,快速且准确地做出评定,提出了利用BP神经网络进行战损等级评定.在总结战损等级影响因素的基础上,建立了通信设备战损等级评定神经网络模型.经检验,该模型用于战时通信设备战损等级评定准确度高,具有很强的军事意义.     

时间管理在实时仿真中的改进

时问是分布仿真中的核心概念;时间管理是分布交互仿真的关键技术.探讨了分布交互仿真中高层体系结构(HLA)的时间管理机制,针对HLA在实时系统仿真方面的不足,分析其原因,提出了时间管理在实时仿真中的改进方法,对HLA在实时系统仿真中的应用有一定的参考价值.     

Supply chain coordination with shelf‐space and retail price dependent demand and heterogeneous retailers

We consider supply chain coordination in which a manufacturer supplies some product to multiple heterogeneous retailers and wishes to coordinate the supply chain via wholesale price and holding cost subsidy. The retail price is either exogenous or endogenous. The market demand is described by the market share attraction model based on all retailers'shelf‐spaces and retail prices. We obtain optimal solutions for the centralized supply chain, where the optimal retail pricing is a modified version of the well‐known cost plus pricing strategy. We further get feasible contracts for the manufacturer to coordinate the hybrid and decentralized supply chains. The manufacturer can allocate the total profit free to himself and the retail market via the wholesale price when the retail price is exogenous, but otherwise he cannot. Finally, we point out that different characteristics of the retail market are due to different powers of the manufacturer, and the more power the manufacturer has, the simpler the contract to coordinate the chain will be. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Optimal operating policies in a commodity trading market with the manufacturer's presence

With the help of the Internet and express delivery at relatively low costs, trading markets have become increasingly popular as a venue to sell excess inventory and a source to obtain products at lower prices. In this article, we study the operational decisions in the presence of a trading market in a periodic‐review, finite‐horizon setting. Prices in the trading market change periodically and are determined endogenously by the demand and supply in the market. We characterize the retailers'optimal ordering and trading policies when the original manufacturer and the trading market co‐exist and retailers face fees to participate in the trading market. Comparing with the case with no trading fees, we obtain insights into the impact of trading fees and the fee structure on the retailers and the manufacturer. Further, we find that by continually staying in the market, the manufacturer may use her pricing strategies to counter‐balance the negative impact of the trading market on her profit. Finally, we extend the model to the case when retailers dynamically update their demand distribution based on demand observations in previous periods. A numerical study provides additional insights into the impact of demand updating in a trading market with the manufacturer's competition. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

基于层间嵌入式多级支持向量机的特征选择

针对多故障样本一次性映射之后分类不理想,研究了多级层次式支持向量机,应用UCI数据仿真,结果表明该方法缩短了训练时间、提升了测试准确率、改善了样本的可分类性。由于误差积累,在此基础上,提出了层间嵌入式多级支持向量机,采用Abalone数据仿真,结果表明分类精度有所提高并减少了分类步骤。结合ReliefF算法,对制导设备的故障特征参数进行了选择。