自然损耗对储油经济效能影响的模糊综合评估

石油及其产品在储存过程中,受到工艺技术、设备以及管理方法的限制,不可避免会有部分轻质组分汽化,逸入大气,对环境造成污染,并造成经济损失。这种因自然损耗对储油经济带来的影响因素很多,既有定性的,又有定量的,且各因素大多又难以精确地描述,因此,为了反映这些不确定因素对油罐储油经济性的影响,运用多级模糊综合评判的方法,对储油经济性进行综合评判。该方法的思路是建立一个经济效能三级模糊综合评判指标体系,构建相应的评判模型,并以算例加以验证。分析计算结果表明:该方法能较好考虑到评判中的模糊因素,为客观准确评估储油经济效能提供了科学依据。     

中国与西方民主社会主义国家的混合经济体制比较

混合经济体制在科学社会主义的中国与民主社会主义的西方世界同时存在,并且都发挥了积极的作用。但是,学者们对混合经济体制的认识却存在较大差异,进而导致了论证上的分歧,文章在论述上将采取在国家意志层面上的混合经济体制概念内涵。通过对两种混合经济体制从所处的文明发展阶段、国家的指导思想、发生学、组成成分的功能以及目标趋向等层面进行比较分析,改变传统对混合经济体制研究中对两者在政治哲学、历史哲学等方面的不足。两种混合经济体制的相似点关涉到混合经济体制模式未来发展和对二者关系的认识问题,而传统对此研究的认识论基础主要是一分为二的矛盾分析法,故而在思想认识产生了上一些问题,文章将采用“一分为三”的方法论对此进行一些尝试。     

The demand for military expenditure in authoritarian regimes

This paper examines whether there are systematic differences in military spending between different types of autocratic regimes. We view military expenditure as an instrument a dictator can exploit in order to stay in power. How he utilises this instrument depends on the institutional set-up of his regime. We distinguish between military regimes, single party states and personalist regimes, and predict that military regimes should have the highest, whereas personalist dictatorships should have the lowest level of military spending. Using panel data on 64 dictatorships from 1960 to 2000, we find empirical evidence that our hypotheses are not rejected.     

武器系统经济性参数的支持向量机方法分析

采用一种基于支持向量机的武器系统费用分析方法.计算结果表明,这种方法有效解决了参数法对样本量要求较高以及对非线性问题处理能力较弱等问题.与传统方法相比较,有更好的拟合精度和泛化能力,因而该方法可以作为研究此类问题的新途径.     

Democracy index for Africa, 2010

ABSTRACT

Natural resource-based conflicts continue to occur in different parts of Nigeria with negative implications. This study investigated the phenomena of natural resource conflicts vis-à-vis their propensities to impact political economy and national security negatively. Data for the study were sourced from theoretical and empirical evidence. Empirical data were sourced from existing studies selected on the basis on their relevance to the study and analysed based on their content. The limitation to this approach is the obsolete and subjective nature of some the literature. This limitation was, however, addressed among others through the author’s knowledge of the issues under study. The study found that Nigeria is enmeshed in conflict over ownership, distribution, access to or competition over natural resources such as petroleum resources and agricultural land and these conflicts have undermined democracy, human rights, the economy and the nation’s security. The paper identified poor resource governance, environmental factors and poor political leadership as the causes and drivers of these conflicts. It recommends natural resource governance among others, as a way out of the problem.     

BUTTER,GUNS AND ICE‐CREAM THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA

This paper is intended to complement the existing literature on civil wars. First, it presents a simple theoretical model of conflict that defines a two‐sector economy. In a contested sector, two agents struggle to appropriate the maximum possible fraction of a contestable output. In an uncontested sector, they hold secure property rights over the production of some goods. Agents split their resource endowment between ‘butter’, ‘guns’ and ‘ice‐cream’. Following the theoretical insights the empirical analysis focuses on the relationship between civil wars and different sectors of the economy. In particular, a panel probit specification shows that the incidence of a civil war decreases in the size of manufacturing sector.     

Country survey XII: South Africa

This article examines the relationship between defence expenditure and economic performance in South Africa, both prior to and after that country's first fully democratic election in 1994. Prior to 1994 defence expenditure decisions were largely dominated by non‐economic factors; since then defence spending has declined in reaction to, inter alia, the need to address a number of socio‐economic inequities.

After 1975 in particular, military industrialisation in South Africa placed a disproportionately high burden on the country's industrial resources and natural economic and technical capabilities. However, although this suggests that the opportunity cost of domestic arms production has been fairly high, the country's poor economic and development performance since the mid‐1970s is a function of underlying structural deficiencies and institutional constraints rather than the consequence of inordinately high defence spending levels.     

正确认识和评价毛泽东的社会主义商品经济思想

毛泽东的社会主义商品经济思想是毛泽东思想的一个重要内容,是毛泽东对中国社会主义建设实践经验的概括和总结。正确认识和评价毛泽东的社会主义商品经济思想,既要看到它对马列主义的重大创新和发展以及它对我们后来探索经济体制改革的重要意义,又要看到这一理论的时代性和局限性。     

谈国人视野中的中国崛起

随着中国的快速发展,中国正在崛起已成为国内外有目共睹的事实。一些西方学者把中国崛起看成是对世界和平与发展的"威胁",中国人民则根据中国崛起所带来的巨大变化,把中国崛起看成是对人类文明的重大贡献。对中华民族而言,中国崛起造福13亿中国人,使中国人民基本过上了幸福的小康生活;对全人类来说,中国崛起惠及全世界,推动了世界经济的发展乃至人类文明的进步。     

现代技术生存危机下发展低碳经济的必要性分析

人类发展历程先后经历了自然生存和技术生存两个阶段,与人类相伴而生的技术经由古代的手工技术、近代的机器技术,演变成与科学结合、高度发达的现代技术,成为人类卓有成效的生存工具。但现代技术引发的生态与人性危机,促使人类寻求全新的生存方式——新技术生存。作为新技术生存典型代表的低碳经济,既维持生存的高效率,又无碍于人与自然的和谐发展。走可持续发展之路,发展低碳经济,对于克服现代技术危机、实现健康和谐的新技术生存,是非常必要的。