An experiment evaluating how the tiny mass eccentricities in spin-stabilized projectiles affect the position of impact points

This study investigates and quantifies some possible sources affecting the position of impact points of small caliber spin-stabilized projectiles (such as 12.7 mm bullets). A comparative experiment utilizing the control variable method was designed to figure out the influence of tiny eccentric centroids on the projectiles. The study critically analyzes data obtained from characteristic parameter measurements and precision trials. It also combines Sobol's algorithm with an artificial intelligence algorithm—Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)—in order to conduct global sensitivity analysis and determine which parameters were most influential. The results indicate that the impact points of projectiles with an entry angle of 0° deflected to the left to that of projectiles with an entry angle of 90°. The difference of the mean coordinates of impact points was about 12.61 cm at a target range of 200 m. Variance analysis indicated that the entry angle — i.e. the initial position of mass eccentricity — had a notable influence. After global sensitivity analysis, the significance of the effect of mass eccentricity was confirmed again and the most influential factors were determined to be the axial moment and transverse moment of inertia (Izz Iyy), the mass of a projectile (m), the distance between nose and center of mass along the symmetry axis for a projectile (Lm), and the eccentric distance of the centroid (Lr). The results imply that the control scheme by means of modifying mass center (moving mass or mass eccentricity) is promising for designing small-caliber spin-stabilized projectiles.     

Cooperative interception with fast multiple model adaptive estimation

For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target, the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target, which performs a bang For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target, the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target, which performs a bang-bang evasive maneuver with a random switching time. Combined Fast multiple model adaptive estimation (Fast MMAE) algorithm, the cooperative guidance law takes detection configuration affecting the accuracy of interception into consideration. Introduced the detection error model related to the line-of-sight (LOS) separation angle of two interceptors, an optimal cooperative guidance law solving the optimization problem is designed to modulate the LOS separation angle to reduce the estimation error and improve the interception performance. Due to the uncertainty of the target bang-bang maneuver switching time and the effective fitting of its multi-modal motion, Fast MMAE is introduced to identify its maneuver switching time and estimate the acceleration of the target to track and intercept the target accurately. The designed cooperative optimal guidance law with Fast MMAE has better estimation ability and interception performance than the traditional guidance law and estimation method via Monte Carlo simulation.     

基于自适应Kalman滤波算法的航空发动机可测参数及其偏离量估计

针对采用估计可测参数偏离量建立航空发动机机载自适应模型的方案中,可测参数偏离量估计的问题,引入了CA(Constant Acceleration)模型,建立了简化的可测参数状态方程和测量方程,采用自适应Kalman滤波算法直接估计可测参数,由估计出的可测参数与发动机非线性模型计算的额定值之差,获得可测参数偏离量.为解决因简化的状态模型系统误差较大,采用标准Kalman滤波会出现估计严重偏离真值的问题,分析了标准Kalman滤波准则和状态模型误差对滤波结果的影响,采用动态调整状态预报在滤波估计结果中权重的策略,给出了单因子自适应Kalman滤波算法准则及递推公式,使滤波估计准确.对不同的可测参数分别采取序列滤波的方法,减少了运算量.以仿真产生的发动机测量数据为例,对系统模型和所设计的算法进行验证,计算结果表明,所设计的滤波算法具有很快的收敛速度和计算速度,结果优于标准Kalman滤波算法,具有更好的估计精度和一定的工程应用价值.     

二维抛板极限速度的相似性与古尼公式的采用

本文分析影响被炸药驱动下抛板极限速度的重要因素,讨论了一些经验公式的适用范围;提出了根据二维抛板的数值计算得到的两个重要规律:①在炸药与抛板的质量比相同的情况下,抛板的极限速度之间具有一定的相似关系;②修正的古尼公式可用来计算二维抛板的极限速度。     

基于Simulink的质点外弹道模型仿真

介绍了基于Simulink的质点外道模型的设计与仿真方法。首先给出了地面直角坐标系下的弹丸质心运动方程组,然后介绍如何采用Simulink建立系统的仿真模型并进行仿真计算。仿真方法具有模型设计过程简单、修改容易和结果直观等特点,可以应用到刚体弹道、火箭弹道及控制弹道等模型的仿真。     

多模型估计方法

多模型方法是一种混合估计方法 ,相对于传统的估计方法而言 (例如 Kalman滤波 ) ,它特别适合于具有未知变参数或变结构系统的研究 ,因而在许多领域得到了成功应用。回顾了多模型方法的发展过程 ,对现有各种多模型估计方法进行了总结 ,并提出了研究方向     

群死群伤恶性火灾的特点及预防

结合重特大恶性火灾案例,分析近年来国内发生群死群伤重特大恶性火灾爆炸事故的特点及原因,在总结以往事故经验教训的基础上提出遏制群死群伤恶性火灾的对策,并提出几点看法.     

低轨预警自由段弹道估计的多项式逼近算法

低轨单星对自由段弹道的估计是天基预警系统需解决的关键技术之一.建立了低轨预警卫星对自由段弹道的观测模型,针对极大似然估计批处理算法的大运算量问题,给出了一种多项式逼近算法,由观测数据的逼近多项式在一些特定采样点的值形成伪观测数据,以伪观测数据代替原观测数据进行弹道估计.仿真表明,精度与极大似然估计相当,运算量显著降低.     

考虑仿真可信度的舰炮虚拟校射

为利用仿真模型在有限校射样本的条件下对校射补偿量进行合理估计,对考虑仿真可信度的舰炮虚拟校射方法进行了研究。对自适应加权贝叶斯估计方法进行了研究,一方面对仿真先验可信度的计算方法进行了分析,另一方面对考虑先验可信度的自适应加权贝叶斯估计算法进行了研究。在此基础上,结合舰炮虚拟校射的原理和需求,建立了舰炮虚拟校射诸元误差自适应加权贝叶斯估计模型。仿真验证表明:自适应加权贝叶斯估计方法能够利用试验数据对仿真模型的可信度进行有效验证并进一步实现对目标分布的有效估计;所设计的校射方法能够综合利用仿真模型和校射样本的优势,实现对诸元误差的合理估计,达到有效提高校射精度的目的。     

The rise and fall of counterproliferation policy

The US government initiated a Defense Counterproliferation Initiative to address the concern that, in the post-Cold War years, the proliferation of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons would be widespread and create a significant challenge to the US military’s combat operations. In particular, non-nuclear states might use chemical or biological warfare agents against US forces with the belief that nuclear weapons would not be used against them in retaliation. Following the events of September 11, 2001, defense strategy and policy shifted to a wider view of the threat of adversarial use of “weapons of mass destruction” (WMD) and the term “counterproliferation” was replaced by “combating” or “countering WMD.” Over time, the Defense Department increasingly moved away from counterproliferation principles with the detrimental effect of losing capabilities that US forces still need for contemporary adversaries. This shift has been aggravated by other US government agencies’ use of “counterproliferation” in lieu of what would have been termed “nonproliferation” activities in the 1990s. The loss of clarity within the US government on these terms has led to the inability to focus the “whole of government” on this significant national security challenge. To alleviate this challenge, the US government needs a top-down initiative to refocus policy on the distinctly different aspects of WMD with respect to military combat operations, combating terrorism, and homeland security.