片体干扰对三体船附加质量和附加惯性矩的影响研究

基于三维Rankine源方法,进行三体船附加质量和附加惯性矩计算,分析了片体干扰对三体船附加质量和附加惯性矩的影响,为三体船操纵性预报奠定基础.通过对圆球、椭球附加质量和附加惯性矩的计算,以及对三体船附加质量和附加惯性矩定性规律的分析,说明了文中方法的可靠性.研究表明,片体干扰对三体船附加质量和附加惯性矩有一定影响,但并不十分明显,且这种影响随着间距的增大很快衰减.     

边境地区群体性事件预警指标体系构建研究

科学、可行的指标体系是群体性事件预警的核心。在坚持完备性与最小性原则、科学性与可行性原则、敏感性与动态性原则、全局性与针对性原则的前提下,利用层次分析法、专家调查法,构建了以边境地区经济、社会保障、公共安全维护、民族与宗教、边民心理状况以及周边环境六大因素为支撑的边境地区群体性事件预警指标内容,并形成了6个一级指标,12个二级指标,44个三级指标的边境地区群体性事件预警指标体系。     

论突发事件中摄影记者的心理素质——兼论摄影课程教学

社会对记者职业的角色期望,强烈制约着记者的行为模式,使其具有与其他职业不同的心理特征。摄影记者作为记者职业的一个分类,不仅要遵循这样的模式,同时,在面对时常伴着死亡、暴力、血腥和危险的突发性事件时,还要用相机记录眼前的现实,往往给摄影记者造成很大心理压力。如何帮助摄影记者有效应对和及时调整可能出现的心理状况,是新闻教育工作者在教学中必须考虑的问题。本文对突发事件报道中,摄影记者的心理压力来源进行浅显分析,同时简要讨论摄影课程教学中如何应对。     

灰色灾变与回归分析法的航空装备不安全事件预测

为提高航空装备不安全事件的预测水平,减少事故造成的人员和财产损失,将灰色灾变与回归分析方法有机结合,提出一种航空装备不安全事件的组合预测方法。该方法先从数据中找出灾变点(灾变发生的日期),通过建立这些灾变点的灰色灾变模型预测未来灾变点,再对这些灾变点上的值构建灰色预测模型,计算出未来灾变点的灾变值;而对于非灾变点,可建立合适的回归分析模型进行预测。为验证其可行性,在某飞行训练基地的航空装备不安全事件频数的数据基础上,建立了灰色灾变回归组合预测模型,结果表明,模型对2001年~2004年预测的相对误差平均控制在6.87%以内,所建立的组合模型,能够比较客观地反映航空装备安全的未来实际状况。     

论公安机关处置群体性事件的制度完善

目前,我国公安机关在处置群体性事件过程中,在警察权定位及适用权限判断上存在着警察权适用程序失准、绩效不足、角色失当、制度不完善等困境。应从明确公安机关的处置原则、角色定位、建立权力规制和权利救济制度、构建公安机关分级应对策略等方面加以完善。     

把握党的群众路线科学内涵需厘清的几个逻辑问题

当前,以“为民、务实、清廉”为主要内容的党的群众路线教育实践活动在全党全军深入开展,准确把握党的群众路线科学内涵,必须厘清党员干部要“相信谁”、“依靠谁”、“为了谁”和“我是谁”这四个逻辑问题,才能科学地指导教育实践活动深入开展,这既是确保活动取得良好成效的客观要求,也是新形势下丰富马克思主义党建学说的应有之义.     

FROM PROLIFERATION TO PEACE

Despite both regional and international efforts to establish a weapons of mass destruction–free zone (WMDFZ) in the Middle East, regional support beyond mere rhetoric seems unattainable. The lack of commitment to WMD disarmament results from the complexity of regional security dynamics, which are characterized by a high level of weaponization and crosscutting conflicts. This article examines a strategy for WMD disarmament in the Middle East. First, such a strategy must reflect the motives underlying a state's WMD aspirations. Security and prestige may be identified as two motives that affect the acquisition, and thus also the abandonment, of WMD. Second, Egypt, Iran, Israel, and Syria are important actors because their reasons for desiring WMD cannot be considered apart from each other, and progress will consequently depend on the inclusion of all these actors. In this regard, we recommend the establishment of a parallel process between efforts to establish a WMDFZ and peaceful relations in the Middle East. Solving central problems, like the lack of political determination and security cooperation, is vital to create consensus on the final framework of a zone. This study suggests a way forward by analyzing the central causes of conflict in the region and recommending ways to resolve them in order to establish a WMDFZ.     

ALL TOGETHER NOW

Banning Weapons of Mass Destruction, by Frederick N. Mattis. Praeger Security International, 2009. 129 pages, $39.95.     

All Together Now? Questioning WMDs as a Useful Analytical Unit for Understanding Chemical and Biological Weapons Proliferation

ABSTRACT

The popular use of the term “weapons of mass destruction” (WMD) can be understood to imply a relationship between nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons proliferation insofar as it assumes that the separate weapons technologies can be usefully grouped into a single analytic category. This article explores whether WMD is actually a useful construct. It begins by reviewing the literature on nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons proliferation, including a recent study that sought to estimate the relationship between the pursuit and acquisition of these different weapons. It then explores some policy inferences that academics and policy makers may be tempted to draw from these studies, particularly regarding the Barack Obama administration's pursuit of deep nuclear reductions. It argues that many of these policy inferences are premature at best and misleading at worst. It concludes with a call for additional research into the causes and consequences of chemical and biological weapons proliferation, and a call for scholars to remain cautious in their desire to draw premature policy implications from their studies in order to be “policy relevant.”     

COURTING THE GLOBAL SOUTH WITH “DUAL-BENEFIT” NONPROLIFERATION ENGAGEMENT

President Barack Obama and an array of other Western leaders continue to assert that the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to non-state actors is one of most pressing challenges to global security today. Yet, Western efforts to engage governments—particularly governments across the global South—in a practical nonproliferation dialogue have largely yielded disappointing results. This viewpoint examines the need for a new strategy to engage the developing world in nonproliferation programs. It argues that strategies focused strictly on WMD nonproliferation are unsustainable, and ultimately are destined for failure. An alternative “dual-benefit” nonproliferation engagement strategy utilizes the enlightened self-interest of partner governments needed to achieve broad-based buy-in among all partners. In a concluding section, we recommend that the “Group of 8” Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction standardize this model of nonproliferation engagement as it sets out to identify and fund WMD nonproliferation capacity-building initiatives beyond the states of the former Soviet Union.