Evaluating cost and reliability integrated performance of stochastic logistics systems

The significance of integrating reliability into logistics performance has been established [The Logistics Performance Index and Its Indicators, World Bank International Trade and Transport Departments, (2010)]. Hence, as a response to the work by the World Bank, the present article aims to evaluate the performance index R_b,d of logistics systems as the probability that a specified demand d can be distributed successfully through multistate arc capacities from the source to the destination under the constraint that the total distribution cost should not exceed the cost limitation b. This article provides a pioneering approach for a straightforward computation of the performance index R_b,d. The proposed algorithm is a hybrid between the polynomial time capacity‐scaling algorithm, which was presented by Edmonds and Karp [JACM 19 (1972)], and the decomposition algorithm, which was presented by Jane and Laih [IEEE (2008)]. Currently, the proposed approach is the only algorithm that can directly compute R_b,d. An illustration of the proposed algorithm is presented. The results of the computational experiments indicate that the presented algorithm outperforms existing algorithms. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

Double Mover–Stayer model on customer switching in telecommunications industry

Customer acquisition and customer retention are the most important challenges in the increasingly competitive telecommunications industry. Traditional studies of customer switching always assume that customers are homogeneous, and thus that model customer switching behavior follows a Markov formulation. However, this postulation is obviously inappropriate in most instances. Blumen et al. (Cornell Studies of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, 1955) developed the Mover–Stayer (MS) model, a generalization of the Markov chain model, to relax the requirement of homogeneity and allow the presence of heterogeneity with two different types of individuals—“stayers,” who purchase the same kinds of products or services throughout the entire observation period; and “movers,” who look for variety in products or services over time. There are two purpose of this article. First, we extend the MS model to a Double Mover‐Stayer (DMS) model by assuming the existence of three types of individuals in the market: (1) stable and loyal customers, who have stable usage within the same company; (2) instable but loyal customers, whose usage varies within the same company over time; and (3) disloyal customers, who switch from one company to another to seek for new experiences or/and benefits. We also propose an estimation method for the DMS model. Second, we apply the DMS model to telecommunications data and demonstrate how it can be used for pattern identification, hidden knowledge discovery, and decision making. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

多源信息的验前分布融合方法研究

验前分布的获取和表示是B ayes理论应用中的一个关键问题。针对目前多源验前信息融合中存在的过分依赖专家信息的问题,提出了一种基于第2类极大似然估计原理(M L-II)确定验前分布权重的方法,该方法将现场试验数据看作是由其边缘分布产生的样本,然后根据不同验前分布下现场样本似然性的大小来确定其在验前分布融合中的作用,并以此进一步确定不同验前分布的权重因子。最后通过算例证明了该方法比基于专家信息的融合方法更为合理和有效。     

灰色神经网络的鱼雷经济寿命预测

为减少军费开支、降低鱼雷全寿命费用,从经济性角度提出了鱼雷最佳服役年限模型。利用灰色等维新息GM(1,1)模型对鱼雷年度使用维修费用进行预测;采用分组的思想将原始数据分为多组,采用神经网络对灰色模型的预测残差进行修正,以提高预测精度。通过实际算例预测了鱼雷经济寿命,从而证明了模型的实际应用价值。     

基于偏最小二乘回归的军用飞机采购价格预测

考虑到军用飞机采购价格样本数据少、难于预测的特点和偏最小二乘回归方法在处理小样本多元数据方面的优势,提出一种基于偏最小二乘回归的军用飞机价格预测方法.偏最小二乘回归首先提取第一、第二主成分对采购价格样本的特异点进行剔除;然后进行变量投影重要度分析来筛选变量;最后,偏最小二乘回归对筛选的变量进行回归建立军用飞机价格预测模型,并对军用飞机价格进行预测.结果表明,在军用飞机价格预测方面,与未筛选变量的回归模型和逐步多元回归相比,经过变量筛选的偏最小二乘回归模型预测的精度更高,更能体现采购价格与飞机性能参数之间的关系.     

Facility location for an extraterrestrial production/distribution system

This paper extends traditional production/distribution system analysis to address raw material, factories, and markets located beyond Earth. It explains the eventual advantages of such operations and discusses likely sites in the solar system. It furnishes a typology for production/distribution systems, assessing the fit of each type to space operations. It briefly reviews the physics of orbits. It develops transportation and inventory cost functions for the simplest case of Hohmann trajectories, and for transportation between circular orbits of similar radii using higher‐energy trajectories. These cost functions are used to derive a model of production/distribution system cost, the minimization of which selects an optimal factory location. The paper suggests potential extensions to this work, and concludes with ideas for location research on the novel reaches of extraterrestrial space. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

机载雷达与地面雷达的最大似然配准算法

空、地多雷达配准是空地一体化预警的前提。通过建立空中运动雷达与地面静止雷达的配准模型,以最大似然算法为基础,导出其空间系统误差配准参数及目标运动状态估计的具体公式,并对系统误差估计值的卡拉美-罗界进行了讨论。仿真结果表明,该算法具有较快的迭代收敛速度和较好的配准效果。     

多品种备件联合申请的聚集效应

根据联合申请的备件品种范围的不同,提出了3种订货策略,即单独申请、统一申请和联合申请,并设计了联合申请策略的启发式算法。该算法首先确定订购最频繁的备件,将其申请周期作为基本申请周期,其他备件申请周期是该周期的整倍数;其次寻求各种备件的最优订货倍数;最后确定各种备件的订购量。数值实例表明：联合申请策略的聚集效应明显优于单独申请策略和统一申请策略,对多品种库存控制策略的研究有一定意义。     

战时交通运输路径优化研究

以战时交通运输路径优化问题为研究对象,分析问题特点,考虑多式联运,以运输时间代价、运输费用代价、路段和运输节点的危险性代价为优化目标,建立起广义运输代价最小的运输路径优化模型,并设计了蚁群算法来求解问题模型。给出的算例表明,文中模型符合战时交通运输的特点和实际需要,可为确定战时运输路径提供决策支持,而采用的蚁群算法是求解该问题的一种有效方法。     

遗传规划在机载电子设备费用估算中的应用

在对现有电子设备费用估算方法进行简要回顾的基础上,对遗传规划的原理与方法进行了分析和研究,提出了基于遗传规划的机载电子设备生产费用估算模型,并完成了算法设计和程序编制工作.以历史数据为学习样本,根据所建模型对不同型号的机载电子设备生产费用进行了估算.结果表明, 模型简单易行、精度较高,为机载电子设备费用估算提供了一条新途径.