美军情报战战法分析

介绍美军航天/航空/地面侦察等构成的空间、航空、地面"三位一体"全方位的情报网络.详述了美军情报搜集主要特点,即海陆空天综合一体的情报搜集、广泛设置处理机构和分散式的情报处理、实时互通的情报传递.详述和归纳了美军情报战的主要战法,即航天/航空侦察、无人机侦察等手段抢占太空制高点,以及探测覆盖全空域的重要特点.文章强调,现代高技术背景下的情报战,占领"太空、信息、情报"三大制高点刻不容缓.     

A nonparametric approach to accelerated life testing under multiple stresses

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is concerned with subjecting items to a series of stresses at several levels higher than those experienced under normal conditions so as to obtain the lifetime distribution of items under normal levels. A parametric approach to this problem requires two assumptions. First, the lifetime of an item is assumed to have the same distribution under all stress levels, that is, a change of stress level does not change the shape of the life distribution but changes only its scale. Second, a functional relationship is assumed between the parameters of the life distribution and the accelerating stresses. A nonparametric approach, on the other hand, assumes a functional relationship between the life distribution functions at the accelerated and nonaccelerated stress levels without making any assumptions on the forms of the distribution functions. In this paper, we treat the problem nonparametrically. In particular, we extend the methods of Shaked, Zimmer, and Ball [7] and Strelec and Viertl [8] and develop a nonparametric estimation procedure for a version of the generalized Arrhenius model with two stress variables assuming a linear acceleration function. We obtain consistent estimates as well as confidence intervals of the parameters of the life distribution under normal stress level and compare our nonparametric method with parametric methods assuming exponential, Weibull and lognormal life distributions using both real life and simulated data. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 629–644, 1998     

失效概率函数求解的高效算法

结合基于分数矩约束的极大熵方法和替代模型法,发展了一种失效概率函数求解的高效算法。所提算法的基本思路是利用自主学习的迭代Kriging方法来构造失效概率函数,即采用较少的训练样本来构造粗糙的失效概率函数,在此基础上通过添加新的违反学习函数约束的样本来更新失效概率函数,直到达到精度要求。对于每一个分布参数的训练样本点,所提方法采用分数矩约束的极大熵法来求解相应的失效概率样本。由于分数矩的计算采用了高效的降维积分,并且由于分数矩约束下极大熵法中优化策略高效地逼近了响应的概率密度函数,从而使得失效概率样本能够被高效高精度地估计出来。为了检验所提方法的精度及效率,给出了两个算例,对比了所提方法与已有的失效概率函数求解的Bayes公式法及Monte Carlo法等,结果表明,所提方法适用于求解复杂的功能函数问题,且在满足精度要求的基础上大大降低了计算量。     

网络异构信息的张量分解聚类方法

提出基于张量分解的聚类算法,能够同时处理网络中多类型、多语义关系的异构信息。网络信息体系中的各种异构信息被建模为一个多维张量,异构信息之间丰富的语义关系建模为张量中的元素。提出有效的张量分解方法,将不同类型的信息对象一次性划分到不同的簇中。在人工合成的数据集和真实数据集上的实验结果表明:该聚类方法可以很好地处理网络信息体系中的异构信息聚类问题,并且性能优于现有的聚类方法。     

装备“互联网+”平台化综合保障的技术应用

“互联网+”的一个特点是从数据出发,挖掘数据中隐含的本质规律,提升信息的利用率,向用户有针对性地开展业务。在数字化装备时代,装备的研制数据与使用数据信息都是海量的。这些数据资源中隐含的规律信息正是研制部门服务用户的重要资源,也是改进设计、提升装备性能的宝贵财富。综合保障信息系统的核心,是利用数据信息与信息技术为装备的保障工作服务,正符合“互联网+”的理念。本文从“互联网+”技术的理念与途径出发,根据装备保障数据信息资源应用的特点,结合在综合保障信息系统应用中的实践,探索信息化装备保障的技术发展方向。     

履带车辆动力性仿真研究

为仿真履带车辆动力性,建立了动力性评价指标的仿真模型,并以某型车为实例,应用Matlab语言编程计算得出理论值,通过与试验值比较验证了模型的有效性和准确性。     

美军战略传播中的“叙事”策略

随着互联网技术的飞速发展,信息传播对国家政治、经济、外交和国防带来巨大冲击和影响。美军意识到传播叙事是政府和军队塑造形象、谋划战略、输出文化价值观的重要手段。美国从"重讲故事"的角度出发,将"叙事"包装成对外战略传播的新型方式,从思维认知、情感操控、舆论引导等方面强化对对手的心理威慑和影响,同时以新媒体为媒介扩大叙事传播的影响受众,进而达到物理打击所难以发挥的影响。     

Optimal control policies in service systems with limited information on the downstream stage

Existing models in multistage service systems assume full information on the state of downstream stages. In this paper, we investigate how much the lack of such information impacts jobs' waiting time in a two‐stage system with two types of jobs at the first stage. The goal is to find the optimal control policy for the server at the first stage to switch between type‐1 and type‐2 jobs, while minimizing the long‐run average number of jobs in the system. We identify control policies and corresponding conditions under which having no or partial information, the system can still capture the most benefit of having full information.     

Trade credit contract in the presence of retailer investment opportunity

This paper presents a model for designing a trade credit contract between a supplier and a retailer that would coordinate a supply chain in the presence of investment opportunity for the retailer. Specifically, we study a newsvendor model where the supplier offers a trade credit contract to the retailer who, by delaying the payment, can invest the accounts payable amount and earn returns. We find that when the channel partners have symmetric information about the retailer's investment return, a conditionally concessional trade credit (CTC) contract, which includes a wholesale price, an interest‐free period, and a minimum order requirement, can achieve channel coordination. We then extend the model to the information asymmetry setting in which the retailer's investment return is unobservable by the supplier. We show that, although the CTC contract cannot achieve the coordination in this setting, it can effectively improve channel efficiency as well as profitability for individual partners.     

基于地理信息平台的公安边防综合指挥系统建设研究

在深入调研公安边防部队各级指挥中心业务开展的基础上,分析了当前公安边防部队指挥系统存在的问题,提出了利用地理信息平台建立适应当前边防部队业务需要的综合指挥系统的可行性及具体思路。