车辆运动模拟器运动参数实时监测系统

针对车辆运动模拟器运动参数的实时测量要求研制了一套计算机实时在线监测系统,介绍了监测系统的组成和功能,通过对车辆运动模拟器油缸位移的分析,推导了模拟器运动参数的理论解算方法,并从数据通讯、处理和管理等方面对监测软件进行分析与设计,从而实现了模拟器运动参数监测模式的多样化。     

最大生存概率下的编队防空目标分配研究

为研究编队目标武器分配方法,分析了编队防空体系在作战过程中武器系统火力单元状态、分配决策矩阵和目标序列状态的动态更新形式,建立了以编队生存概率最大为最优函数的动态目标分配优化模型。描述了仿真环境,运用不确定目标序列对分配过程进行了仿真。结果表明,所建立的模型能够反映实际情况,得到的关于集火、转火射击和优先分配策略对模型的工程应用具有实际指导意义。     

新疆基层文化建设现状与发展对策

新疆基层文化建设已经取得了很大成绩,但仍存在文化基础设施落后,基层文化单位工作条件差,公共文化服务缺乏财政保障,基层文化工作队伍不健全等问题。发展新疆基层文化建设必须完善基础设施建设,不断创新文化内容和形式,进一步落实文化经济政策,完善公共文化服务体系,加强基层文化队伍建设,争取优惠政策解决新疆农村文化发展面临的突出问题。     

一类多时滞泛函微分方程周期正解的存在性

利用非线性泛函分析中半序Banach空间的锥理论和不动点指数方法,讨论了一类多时滞泛函微分方程周期正解的存在性问题,并得到此类多时滞泛函微分方程周期正解存在的几个充分条件。     

Double Mover–Stayer model on customer switching in telecommunications industry

Customer acquisition and customer retention are the most important challenges in the increasingly competitive telecommunications industry. Traditional studies of customer switching always assume that customers are homogeneous, and thus that model customer switching behavior follows a Markov formulation. However, this postulation is obviously inappropriate in most instances. Blumen et al. (Cornell Studies of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, 1955) developed the Mover–Stayer (MS) model, a generalization of the Markov chain model, to relax the requirement of homogeneity and allow the presence of heterogeneity with two different types of individuals—“stayers,” who purchase the same kinds of products or services throughout the entire observation period; and “movers,” who look for variety in products or services over time. There are two purpose of this article. First, we extend the MS model to a Double Mover‐Stayer (DMS) model by assuming the existence of three types of individuals in the market: (1) stable and loyal customers, who have stable usage within the same company; (2) instable but loyal customers, whose usage varies within the same company over time; and (3) disloyal customers, who switch from one company to another to seek for new experiences or/and benefits. We also propose an estimation method for the DMS model. Second, we apply the DMS model to telecommunications data and demonstrate how it can be used for pattern identification, hidden knowledge discovery, and decision making. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

多源信息的验前分布融合方法研究

验前分布的获取和表示是B ayes理论应用中的一个关键问题。针对目前多源验前信息融合中存在的过分依赖专家信息的问题,提出了一种基于第2类极大似然估计原理(M L-II)确定验前分布权重的方法,该方法将现场试验数据看作是由其边缘分布产生的样本,然后根据不同验前分布下现场样本似然性的大小来确定其在验前分布融合中的作用,并以此进一步确定不同验前分布的权重因子。最后通过算例证明了该方法比基于专家信息的融合方法更为合理和有效。     

机载雷达与地面雷达的最大似然配准算法

空、地多雷达配准是空地一体化预警的前提。通过建立空中运动雷达与地面静止雷达的配准模型,以最大似然算法为基础,导出其空间系统误差配准参数及目标运动状态估计的具体公式,并对系统误差估计值的卡拉美-罗界进行了讨论。仿真结果表明,该算法具有较快的迭代收敛速度和较好的配准效果。     

一类多时滞泛函微分方程周期正解的存在性

利用非线性泛函分析中半序Banach空间的锥理论和不动点指数方法,得到了一类多时滞泛函微分方程周期正解存在性的充分性条件。     

Aircraft routing under the risk of detection

The deterministic problem for finding an aircraft's optimal risk trajectory in a threat environment has been formulated. The threat is associated with the risk of aircraft detection by radars or similar sensors. The model considers an aircraft's trajectory in three‐dimensional (3‐D) space and represents the aircraft by a symmetrical ellipsoid with the axis of symmetry directing the trajectory. Analytical and discrete optimization approaches for routing an aircraft with variable radar cross‐section (RCS) subject to a constraint on the trajectory length have been developed. Through techniques of Calculus of Variations, the analytical approach reduces the original risk optimization problem to a vectorial nonlinear differential equation. In the case of a single detecting installation, a solution to this equation is expressed by a quadrature. A network optimization approach reduces the original problem to the Constrained Shortest Path Problem (CSPP) for a 3‐D network. The CSPP has been solved for various ellipsoid shapes and different length constraints in cases with several radars. The impact of ellipsoid shape on the geometry of an optimal trajectory as well as the impact of variable RCS on the performance of a network optimization algorithm have been analyzed and illustrated by several numerical examples. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

On‐line parameter estimation for a partially observable system subject to random failure

In this paper, we study the on‐line parameter estimation problem for a partially observable system subject to deterioration and random failure. The state of the system evolves according to a continuous time homogeneous Markov process with a finite state space. The system state is not observable, except for the failure state. The information related to the system state is available at discrete times through inspections. A recursive maximum likelihood (RML) algorithm is proposed for the on‐line parameter estimation of the model. The RML algorithm proposed in the paper is considerably faster and easier to apply than other RML algorithms in the literature, because it does not require projection into the constraint domain and calculation of the gradient on the surface of the constraint manifolds. The algorithm is illustrated by an example using real vibration data. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006