Parametric inference for component distributions from lifetimes of systems with dependent components

In system reliability analysis, for an n ‐component system, the estimation of the performance of the components in the system is not straightforward in practice, especially when the components are dependent. Here, by assuming the n components in the system to be identically distributed with a common distribution belonging to a scale‐family and the dependence structure between the components being known, we discuss the estimation of the lifetime distributions of the components in the system based on the lifetimes of systems with the same structure. We develop a general framework for inference on the scale parameter of the component lifetime distribution. Specifically, the method of moments estimator (MME) and the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) are derived for the scale parameter, and the conditions for the existence of the MLE are also discussed. The asymptotic confidence intervals for the scale parameter are also developed based on the MME and the MLE. General simulation procedures for the system lifetime under this model are described. Finally, some examples of two‐ and three‐component systems are presented to illustrate all the inferential procedures developed here. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

基于内角流动的板式表面张力贮箱内推进剂流动过程研究

分析了在微重力环境下,板式表面张力贮箱内推进剂的流动和定位过程.利用VOF方法对贮箱内推进剂的重定位过程进行了仿真计算,验证了贮箱及PMD的推进剂管理性能.用数学方法分析了液体在导流板的内角流动,用解析计算的方法求出流动过程中液面的长度,并和仿真计算结果进行了对比.因为实际的贮箱模型比较复杂,仿真计算结果和理论计算结果存在一定的误差,但其流动趋势保持一致.本文的工作能够为内角流动的研究提供有益的参考.     

公众聚集场所消防监督管理存在问题及对策

近年来 ,我国公众聚集场所群死群伤恶性火灾时有发生 ,原因固然是多方面的 ,但是 ,公众聚集场所在监督和管理两个层面上存在的突出问题和薄弱环节 ,不能不引起我们的高度重视。结合多年来开展消防监督工作的实践 ,从消防法律法规、消防安全管理体制、技术标准等方面分析了公众聚集场所消防安全监督管理存在的问题 ,并提出了相应对策措施。     

成败型产品的Bayes鉴定试验方案研究

利用可靠性增长模型给出了成败型产品鉴定试验的一种Bayes方法.提出了Bayes鉴定试验的最大后验风险准则,利用这种准则制定的鉴定试验方案综合了产品研制过程中的先验信息.在确保产品质量的前提下,与传统的鉴定试验方案相比,将大大节省试验时间.     

在军援装备物资科研订购中引入激励机制探析

军援装备物资的订购筹措是军事援助中较为重要的一项工作.在军援装备科研订购过程中充分利用经济杠杆的调节和行政手段的调控,通过招标竞争、利益诱导、资金保障、实施奖惩等方面的具体措施,通过履行合同、择优订货等环节的激励,最大限度地调动和发挥各方面的积极性,逐步建立适应军援装备发展需要和社会主义市场经济的新型军援装备科研订购体制.     

主被动传感器异地配置下的航迹关联

在雷达和电子支援(ESM)传感器异地配置的情况下,提出了一种基于位置统计量和最大似然准则的异类传感器航迹关联算法。首先基于位置统计量对目标进行了航迹粗关联,排除掉一些虚假关联组合;然后采用最大似然准则对目标进行了航迹细关联,以求进一步提高雷达和ESM传感器航迹关联的检测概率。仿真结果表明,该算法能够快速、准确地完成对多目标的航迹关联。     

System reliability based on diffusion models for fatigue crack growth

Diffusion processes are commonly used to describe the dynamics of complex systems arising in a wide range of application fields. In this paper we propose, on the basis of diffusion processes, two models concerned with the stochastic behavior of fatigue cracks in a system. They are then used to get the distribution of the failure time, the first time the crack size of at least one of the cracks exceeds a given value. Several properties of our proposed models are presented, and the unknown parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. From these an estimate of failure time distribution is obtained. In this part, contrary to common practice, we do not assume availability of failure data. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

SPH算法在高速侵彻问题中的应用

采用光滑粒子流体动力学方法,数值模拟了弹丸高速侵彻靶板的过程。用黎曼问题中速度和压力的解代替基本粒子与近邻粒子速度和压力的平均值来描述粒子之间的相互作用,无需引入传统的人为粘性方法来处理冲击波过渡层。初步分析表明该数值模拟结果是合理的,因而所用数值方法对于冲击动力学问题的模拟是可行的。     

“马克思主义哲学不直接解决具体问题”质疑

马克思主义哲学“不能直接提供解决具体问题的答案”这一提法的初衷可能是好的,但有明显的片面性,它误导人们仅仅重视“具体问题”,忽视乃至否定其他“问题”的存在;只重视解决问题的“具体答案”,忽视、否定认识和解决问题的过程性;割裂哲学研究与哲学应用的内在联系以及马克思主义哲学理论价值与实践价值的内在联系。现在,应当摒弃这一提法,理直气壮地讲马克思主义哲学就是要解决现实问题,也能够解决现实问题。     

Scheduling recurrent construction

A problem we call recurrent construction involves manufacturing large, complex, expensive products such as airplanes, houses, and ships. Customers order configurations of these products well in advance of due dates for delivery. Early delivery may not be permitted. How should the manufacturer determine when to purchase and release materials before fabrication, assembly, and delivery? Major material expenses, significant penalties for deliveries beyond due dates, and long product makespans in recurrent construction motivate choosing a release timetable that maximizes the net present value of cash flows. Our heuristic first projects an initial schedule that dispatches worker teams to tasks for the backlogged products, and then solves a series of maximal closure problems to find material release times that maximize NPV. This method compares favorably with other well‐known work release heuristics in solution quality for large problems over a wide range of operating conditions, including order strength, cost structure, utilization level, batch policy, and uncertainty level. Computation times exhibit near linear growth in problem size. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004