舰炮武器系统最大有效射程研究

舰炮武器系统最大有效射程是指系统在规定的射击条件下,对规定目标,使用规定弹药射击时能达到规定射击效力指标要求的最大作用距离。系统使用不同的弹药对付不同类型目标,最大有效射程是不同的。本文界定了舰炮武器系统最大射程和最大有效射程的关系,从舰炮武器系统弹丸存速、毁伤能力、系统精度及系统稳定性等方面入手,分析了影响系统对空和对海(岸)最大有效射程的各种因素,并提出了确定最大有效射程的方法和准则,为舰炮武器系统设计及使用提供了有力的理论基础。     

基于粗集和最大熵的模式识别方法

用基于属性约简的粗集理论找出条件属性的最小属性集。对属性间为不确定因果关系的模式,计算在最大熵情况下发生的概率,通过比较概率来进行模式识别,实例分析和结论部分说明这种方法是有效的。     

Discriminating between the Weibull and log‐normal distributions

Log‐normal and Weibull distributions are the most popular distributions for modeling skewed data. In this paper, we consider the ratio of the maximized likelihood in choosing between the two distributions. The asymptotic distribution of the logarithm of the maximized likelihood ratio has been obtained. It is observed that the asymptotic distribution is independent of the unknown parameters. The asymptotic distribution has been used to determine the minimum sample size required to discriminate between two families of distributions for a user specified probability of correct selection. We perform some numerical experiments to observe how the asymptotic methods work for different sample sizes. It is observed that the asymptotic results work quite well even for small samples also. Two real data sets have been analyzed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

防空部队自动化控制系统的电子压制(一)数学模型

通过分析电子压制,确认部队自动化控制系统由集中控制变为分散控制的可能性。建立部队自动控制系统消失制分散控制随机服务系统的状态概率模型及服务概率-控制品质评估模型。仿真分析集中控制和分散控制对部队自动化控制系统控制品质的影响。     

最大生存概率下的编队防空目标分配研究

为研究编队目标武器分配方法,分析了编队防空体系在作战过程中武器系统火力单元状态、分配决策矩阵和目标序列状态的动态更新形式,建立了以编队生存概率最大为最优函数的动态目标分配优化模型。描述了仿真环境,运用不确定目标序列对分配过程进行了仿真。结果表明,所建立的模型能够反映实际情况,得到的关于集火、转火射击和优先分配策略对模型的工程应用具有实际指导意义。     

援潜救生进度风险分析

失事潜艇的援救要求在潜艇失事后48h内展开,综合考虑援救任务耗时的随机性和模糊性,将计划评审技术PERT(project evalution and review technique)和模糊概率分析结合起来,用以评估援潜救生任务的进度风险。首先,给出了单独使用PERT技术计算援潜救生准备工作在48h内完成的概率的基本算法;然后,将模糊概率分析引入PERT技术,求出援潜救生任务的关键路线,给出基于模糊PERT分析的完工概率算法;最后,以深潜救生艇从我国北方某基地转运至目的地实施救援任务为例,计算援潜救生准备工作在48h内完成的概率。计算结果的对比表明:使用模糊PERT分析方法比单独使用PERT技术得出的数据更为可靠。     

移动平台基线精度及其命中概率仿真研究

为了优化移动平台基线修正的精度指标,首先推导了由基线测量误差引起的目标现在点定位误差计算公式,进而得到了基线测量误差影响下的系统命中概率计算公式．理论分析与Monte—Carlo仿真表明,与移动平台间的基线测量精度相比,目标观测设备相对移动平台的基线测量精度对命中概率的影响更加显著．     

陆战场空域用户飞行碰撞概率评估

对陆战场空域用户飞行误撞因素进行了分析;在Reich模型的基础上,构建了飞行碰撞概率模型,包括垂直方向概率模型、侧向概率模型和纵向概率模型。为验证飞行碰撞概率模型的有效性,仿真计算了空域管制与协调系统的飞行碰撞概率指标,并对比分析了传统空域管制手段与空域管制协调系统的飞行碰撞概率指标的变化情况,结果表明:相对传统空域管制手段,空域管制与协调系统飞行碰撞概率大幅降低。     

弹道导弹防御中拦截弹最优分层配置

多层弹道导弹防御系统在助推段、飞行中段或再入段不同阶段实施拦截,可有效提高系统拦截概率,不同拦截阶段存在拦截弹最优配比问题。为了解决拦截弹道导弹过程中的最优分层配置的问题,本文分别以单层、双层、三层这三种拦截系统为例,通过公式演算和计算机仿真,得出了分段拦截弹道导弹时、不同拦截阶段的拦截弹之间的数量比与整体拦截成功率之间的关系;并提出了整体拦截成功率的概念。经仿真表明,在整体拦截成功率给定的情况下,使用本文所得出的不同拦截段之间所需拦截弹数目之间的最优比,可以最大限度地降低弹道导弹的拦截成本。     

Double Mover–Stayer model on customer switching in telecommunications industry

Customer acquisition and customer retention are the most important challenges in the increasingly competitive telecommunications industry. Traditional studies of customer switching always assume that customers are homogeneous, and thus that model customer switching behavior follows a Markov formulation. However, this postulation is obviously inappropriate in most instances. Blumen et al. (Cornell Studies of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, 1955) developed the Mover–Stayer (MS) model, a generalization of the Markov chain model, to relax the requirement of homogeneity and allow the presence of heterogeneity with two different types of individuals—“stayers,” who purchase the same kinds of products or services throughout the entire observation period; and “movers,” who look for variety in products or services over time. There are two purpose of this article. First, we extend the MS model to a Double Mover‐Stayer (DMS) model by assuming the existence of three types of individuals in the market: (1) stable and loyal customers, who have stable usage within the same company; (2) instable but loyal customers, whose usage varies within the same company over time; and (3) disloyal customers, who switch from one company to another to seek for new experiences or/and benefits. We also propose an estimation method for the DMS model. Second, we apply the DMS model to telecommunications data and demonstrate how it can be used for pattern identification, hidden knowledge discovery, and decision making. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012