履带车辆动力性仿真研究

为仿真履带车辆动力性,建立了动力性评价指标的仿真模型,并以某型车为实例,应用Matlab语言编程计算得出理论值,通过与试验值比较验证了模型的有效性和准确性。     

Adaptive random search for continuous simulation optimization

We present, analyze, and compare three random search methods for solving stochastic optimization problems with uncountable feasible regions. Our adaptive search with resampling (ASR) approach is a framework for designing provably convergent algorithms that are adaptive and may consequently involve local search. The deterministic and stochastic shrinking ball (DSB and SSB) approaches are also convergent, but they are based on pure random search with the only difference being the estimator of the optimal solution [the DSB method was originally proposed and analyzed by Baumert and Smith]. The three methods use different techniques to reduce the effects of noise in the estimated objective function values. Our ASR method achieves this goal through resampling of already sampled points, whereas the DSB and SSB approaches address it by averaging observations in balls that shrink with time. We present conditions under which the three methods are convergent, both in probability and almost surely, and provide a limited computational study aimed at comparing the methods. Although further investigation is needed, our numerical results suggest that the ASR approach is promising, especially for difficult problems where the probability of identifying good solutions using pure random search is small. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

概率风险评估在核电站消防安全管理中的应用

介绍了概率风险评估与火灾概率风险评估的基本概念,详细论述了概率风险评估的主要内容及其在核电站火灾安全管理中的应用。     

某高炮武器系统作战效能评估

某高炮武器系统是我军近几年装备的一种性能优良、技术先进的新型防空武器系统,在反空袭作战中将发挥重要的作用,计算该系统的作战效能具有重要的军事价值和现实意义。建立了计算高炮武器系统对空中目标毁歼概率的数学模型,给出了作战效能评估的数学公式,分别计算了某高炮武器系统用X波段雷达、Ka波段雷达、电视激光方式工作时的作战效能。     

一种改进的雷达探测概率计算方法

基于对指挥自动化系统日常积累的雷达情报数据进行处理,提出了一种改进的雷达探测概率计算方法。综合考虑了目标在飞行过程中,RCS随着其与雷达相对位置的变化而变化的因素,对各个高度层上的航迹按距离取样间隔分段,统计各分段内的观测点数和发现点数,从而计算各距离取样间隔内的发现概率,再根据目标相对雷达的俯仰角和方位角对距离取样间隔中心点的探测距离进行修正。     

复杂电磁环境下搜索雷达探测概率仿真分析

为了具体分析复杂电磁环境对舰载搜索雷达的影响,针对搜索雷达干扰方式的数学模型,从研究搜索雷达探测概率的角度建立了作战效能模型.以这些数学模型为基础和依据,对海军作战仿真系统中,复杂电磁环境下舰载警戒搜索雷达探测概率进行了多次定量仿真计算,给出了主要数据结果.仿真计算结果与理论值基本吻合,证明仿真计算的结果是可靠的,能够反映复杂电磁环境对搜索雷达探测概率的实际影响.     

Statistical analysis of exponential lifetimes under an adaptive Type‐II progressive censoring scheme

In this article, a mixture of Type‐I censoring and Type‐II progressive censoring schemes, called an adaptive Type‐II progressive censoring scheme, is introduced for life testing or reliability experiments. For this censoring scheme, the effective sample size m is fixed in advance, and the progressive censoring scheme is provided but the number of items progressively removed from the experiment upon failure may change during the experiment. If the experimental time exceeds a prefixed time T but the number of observed failures does not reach m, we terminate the experiment as soon as possible by adjusting the number of items progressively removed from the experiment upon failure. Computational formulae for the expected total test time are provided. Point and interval estimation of the failure rate for exponentially distributed failure times are discussed for this censoring scheme. The various methods are compared using Monte Carlo simulation. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

计算声自导鱼雷直进射击成功概率的解析方法

为解决用仿真方法计算声自导鱼雷直进射击成功概率速度慢且计算的等概率线不光滑等问题,利用数学分析及概率统计的理论,给出了一个计算目标能进入直进射击的声自导鱼雷自导作用扇面概率的近似解析公式,并用仿真方法对这个公式进行了评价,数值实验发现,所得公式能满足一定的精度要求.     

尾流自导鱼雷双雷二次转角齐射

针对尾流自导鱼雷在小舷角或者大舷角态势下,使用正常的双雷平行齐射有可能导致鱼雷的入尾流角度θ不满足要求(在30°到150°之间)的问题,提出并建立了含θ为参数的双雷二次转角齐射模型,一方面通过鱼雷的二次转角来使入尾流角度满足要求,另一方面通过双雷齐射提高发现概率.仿真结果表明,该方法基本能够满足特殊态势条件下对于发现概率的射击要求,前提条件是要根据不同的态势及不同的目标运动要素情况,选择不同的θ以获得最佳的射击效果.     

遗传算法在航空发动机故障诊断中的应用

提出了基于遗传算法的航空发动机故障诊断的方法,将概率因果模型与发动机故障诊断问题结合,在得到发动机故障征兆和故障成因之间关系的基础上,利用遗传算法实现对故障的分类和诊断.该方法可以准确而快速得实现对复杂故障问题的诊断,将其应用于某型发动机的故障诊断中,得到了较好的效果,同时也说明了遗传算法在航空发动机故障诊断中是行之有效的.