系统辨识在建立舰船电力推进动态模型中的应用

舰船电力推进是一个复杂的船—机—电系统。对其动态特性的研究,利用现有的基于理论分析建立机理模型的方法,就会遇到分析过程繁杂、模型适用性差的实际困难。本文则利用系统辨识方法建立舰船电力推进系统的动态模型,通过一个具体的船模实验及辨识计算,确定模型的结构和参数。为了克服相关噪声的影响,参数估计中采用了增广矩阵法。并对模型从拟合程度和收敛性两方面进行了检验,结果表明,上述方法所得到的动态模型是适用的。     

灭火初战应把握的关键环节

灭火作战初战是整个灭火战斗的前期战,它的成功与否直接影响到整个灭火战斗的成败。重点论述了如何把握初战的火情侦查、火场救人、控制火势等三个关键环节,以期对基层广大指战员有所指导。     

当前社会应急救援队伍建设探讨

社会应急救援队伍建设应突出执行力,以建设一支领导有力、组织合理、处置科学的指挥机构为中心,以通信指挥平台及应急队伍建设为两个基本点。要进一步建立完善的灭火抢险救援指挥体系;配置足够的硬件设施;增加灭火救援力量;转变观念,以建立强大的应急救援队伍。     

公共娱乐场所电气火灾成因分析和预防对策

公共娱乐场所在利用大量电气设备、设施为人们提供舒适环境的同时,也增大了电气火灾发生的危险性。分析了公共娱乐场所电气火灾的特点及成因,提出了预防公共娱乐场所电气火灾的消防安全管理对策。     

高层建筑消防监督管理系统性探讨

近两年的几场重大火灾说明高层建筑防火和救火不是一个部门一个环节的事情,而是一项系统的防治工程。分析了高层建筑从消防设计、施工到使用三个阶段六大环节中存在的缺陷和不足,就如何做好高层建筑的消防监督管理,提出了系统防治,以防为主的建议。     

Coherent systems based on sequential order statistics

The sequential order statistics (SOS) are a good way to model the lifetimes of the components in a system when the failure of a component at time t affects the performance of the working components at this age t. In this article, we study properties of the lifetimes of the coherent systems obtained using SOS. Specifically, we obtain a mixture representation based on the signature of the system. This representation is used to obtain stochastic comparisons. To get these comparisons, we obtain some ordering properties for the SOS, which in this context represent the lifetimes of k‐out‐of‐n systems. In particular, we show that they are not necessarily hazard rate ordered. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Stochastic scheduling subject to machine breakdowns: The preemptive‐repeat model with discounted reward and other criteria

We consider the problem of scheduling a set of jobs on a single machine subject to random breakdowns. We focus on the preemptive‐repeat model, which addresses the situation where, if a machine breaks down during the processing of a job, the work done on the job prior to the breakdown is lost and the job will have to be started from the beginning again when the machine resumes its work. We allow that (i) the uptimes and downtimes of the machine follow general probability distributions, (ii) the breakdown process of the machine depends upon the job being processed, (iii) the processing times of the jobs are random variables following arbitrary distributions, and (iv) after a breakdown, the processing time of a job may either remain a same but unknown amount, or be resampled according to its probability distribution. We first derive the optimal policy for a class of problems under the criterion to maximize the expected discounted reward earned from completing all jobs. The result is then applied to further obtain the optimal policies for other due date‐related criteria. We also discuss a method to compute the moments and probability distributions of job completion times by using their Laplace transforms, which can convert a general stochastic scheduling problem to its deterministic equivalent. The weighted squared flowtime problem and the maintenance checkup and repair problem are analyzed as applications. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

加快院校初级指挥人才培养模式转变的思考

加快武警院校初级指挥人才培养模式转变,既是贯彻落实胡主席主题主线重大战略思想的客观要求,也是适应建设现代化武警需要,不断提高院校人才培养质量的迫切要求。客观分析了以往武警院校初级指挥人才培养模式所取得的主要成绩、存在问题及原因;从适应武警部队现代化建设现实需要等方面,阐述了转变人才培养模式的必要性;从服务部队建设、培养合格人才的高度,提出了加快初级指挥人才培养模式转变的六项基本对策。     

完善党的活动方式、执政方式、领导方式初探

党的建设的切入点是正确处理党内、党政、党群“三大关系”,落脚点为更加科学治党、治政、治民,着力点是完善党的活动方式、执政方式、领导方式。在活动方式上,增强党员队伍凝聚力面临社会信息化、经济市场化、管理专业化“三大挑战”;在执政方式上,推进党政关系规范化需要解决外部施政权虚化、内部施政权泛化两个问题;在领导方式上,应着力强化对社会个体的组织管理、对社会组织的渠道管理。     

带噪声的 AR 模型的参数估计及定阶

本文讨论了带噪声情形下 AR 模型的参数估计及定阶问题,还给出了噪声模型的参数估计,并证明了它们的强相容性。