Governing risks in international security

Risks are omnipresent in contemporary international security. Despite a long tradition in security studies going at least back to Von Clausewitz, we consider that the topic of risk remains under-examined. This forum seeks to advance the research agenda on risk in security studies by showcasing work of scholars using advanced concepts of risk, based on insights from sociology, biology, psychology, and safety studies, to better understand the role of risk in international security. As a way of introduction, this short article sets out the main debates.     

舰炮武器系统动态误差检测方法

舰炮武器系统动态误差是系统动态性能的重要指标,精确测量舰炮武器系统动态误差一直是比较困难的问题,提出一种比较先进的动态误差测量方法,可以按给定间隔时间连续测量和录取舰炮不稳定方向瞄准角和高低瞄准角动态误差,监测系统的动态过程.对舰炮武器系统动态检测和调试,提高系统射击精度有较大的现实意义.     

物元贝叶斯网络模型研究

分析了贝叶斯网络建模过程中的缺陷,结合物元理论,提出了物元贝叶斯网络理论.该理论能够融合二者的优点,既可处理复杂系统中的不确定性,又能充分利用系统中的所有信息,因此能够更好地进行复杂系统评价.     

法律不确定性之研究

法律的不确定性是法律固有的性质,从法律确定性和不确定性之间的关系、法律不确定性产生的原因以及法律的不确定性与法治之间关系三个方面来阐述法律的不确定性,并评价其对于社会主义法治建设的意义。     

目标位置不确定性的图形描述

目标的观测和状态估计涉及目标的各种运动和属性数据,其中位置不确定性是最重要的性能指标.借鉴测绘学科中衡量点元位置不确定性的方法,分别用椭圆和椭球来表示二维目标和三维目标的位置误差散布的不确定性区域.从位置误差的协方差矩阵导出1-σ误差椭圆(球)参数,再由椭圆(球)的概率分布导出相应的95%圆(球)概率误差的半径.位置不确定性的图形描述为评价位置观测数据的质量提供了可视化的方法.     

基于内容检索中算法的层次化体系组织

基于内容的检索中,检索算法的常规实现是面向单个特征完成特征提取和相似性匹配,再对单特征检索结果加权完成多特征检索,这种方法计算量大,缺乏灵活性。针对于此,提出了一种检索算法的层次化组织体系,能够灵活组织面向不同特征的检索算法,通过传输因子、优先级因子和复杂度因子的赋值,获得逐步精确的检索结果。实验证明,在查全率和查准率基本一致的前提下,与常规检索体系相比,新检索体系能够减少近40%的检索时间。     

A guarantee rate optimization model for wastewater treatment system design under uncertainty

We consider a design problem for wastewater treatment systems that considers uncertainty in pollutant concentration levels at water sources. The goal is to optimize the selection of treatment technologies and pipeline connections, so that treated wastewater can achieve specified effluents discharge limits as well as possible. We propose a new two-stage model to optimize a set of guarantee levels, that is, the maximum concentration level of source pollutants for which treated wastewater can be compliant with discharge limits. In the first stage, treatment technologies and pipeline connections are selected. In the second stage, when pollutant concentration levels are revealed, wastewater distribution and mixing are determined. A key attractiveness of the proposed guarantee rate optimization model is that it can be simplified into a single-stage mixed-integer linear program. In our numerical experiments based on real-world pollutants data, the guarantee rate model demonstrates its advantages in terms of computational efficiency, scalability and solution quality, compared with the standard probability maximization model. Finally, the methodology proposed in this paper can also be applied to other two-stage problems under uncertainty with similar uncertainty characteristics.     

钢弦测功仪的智能化改造研究与实现

将过去传统的钢弦式测功仪用计算机技术进行数据采集与处理 ,从而提高了其测量速度及测试精度 ,数据更为准确、稳定 ,可在 1台仪器上同时连续高速动态显示被测主轴的转速、功率、扭矩 ,并自动保存数据 .人机界面强 ,智能化程度高 ,具有很强的数据后处理及文件形成功能 .     

结构不确定线性时滞系统的无记忆鲁棒镇定

针对状态和控制均存在时滞的一类结构不确定线性时滞系统 ,讨论了鲁棒镇定问题 ,当不确定性参数满足有界性条件时 ,提出了一种无记忆线性状态反馈控制律 ,可保证闭环系统具有二次稳定性     

Flexible capacity strategy in an asymmetric oligopoly market with competition and demand uncertainty

This article studies flexible capacity strategy (FCS) under oligopoly competition with uncertain demand. Each firm utilizes either the FCS or inflexible capacity strategy (IFCS). Flexible firms can postpone their productions until observing the actual demand, whereas inflexible firms cannot. We formulate a new asymmetrical oligopoly model for the problem, and obtain capacity and production decisions of the firms at Nash equilibrium. It is interesting to verify that cross‐group competition determines the capacity allocation between the two groups of firms, while intergroup competition determines the market share within each group. Moreover, we show that the two strategies coexist among firms only when cost differentiation is medium. Counterintuitively, flexible firms benefit from increasing production cost when the inflexible competition intensity is sufficiently high. This is because of retreat of inflexible firms, flexibility effect, and the corresponding high price. We identify conditions under which FCS is superior than IFCS. We also demonstrate that flexible firms benefit from increasing demand uncertainty. However, when demand variance is not very large, flexible firms may be disadvantaged. We further investigate the effects of cross‐group and intergroup competition on individual performance of the firms. We show that as flexible competition intensity increases, inflexible firms are mainly affected by the cross‐group competition first and then by the intergroup competition, whereas flexible firms are mainly affected by the intergroup competition. Finally, we examine endogenous flexibility and identify its three drivers: cost parameters, cross‐group competition, and intergroup competition. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 117–138, 2017