A LONG‐RUN ANALYSIS OF DEFENCE SPENDING IN THE NATO COUNTRIES (1960–99)

This paper analyses the long‐run demand for defence output through a homogeneous treatment of 15 NATO member countries between 1960 and 1999. We carry out a progressive study of the interactions between either defence spending or defence burden and their main determinants: income, external threat and allied military spending. To that end, we use time‐series analysis with endogenously determined structural breaks. We further consider individual country functions related to one another through a common correlated effects method, in order to take into account explicitly the connections between members of an alliance.     

Specialization in defence forces

The choice between balanced and specialized defence forces depends on the technology of defence output (e.g. whether a force scope multiplier is present), the existence of scope and scale economies, the platform customization costs and, of course, the level of defence budgets. Minimum force element levels (thresholds), and scale economies facilitate specialization as opposed to scope economies (e.g. platform‐sharing), scale diseconomies and the force scope multiplier (e.g. defence weakest‐link technology). When a balanced force is not optimal, the option value of a non‐optimally maintained force element must also include the opportunity cost arising from suboptimal force elements. Shrinking defence budgets may produce two surprising phenomena. If some force elements are shut down as a result of thresholds, the surviving ones may increase in platform numbers as well as enjoying closer‐to‐most‐desirable platforms. Furthermore, if heritage force elements are shut down within the budget contraction environment, overall defence capability might rise.     

改进的笛卡尔遗传编程组合电路演化设计

利用笛卡尔遗传编程进行电路演化时,存在收敛速度慢、收敛时间波动较大等问题．对笛卡尔遗传编程中的可编程单元模型进行改进,增加与目标函数相关的逻辑运算,去除无关的逻辑运算,从而提高演化算法命中目标的概率．利用改进的笛卡尔遗传编程方法分别对电机换相电路和乘法器等组合电路进行演化设计．结果表明,改进后的方法明显缩短了电路演化生成的时间,且收敛时间波动较小．     

罐顶板声发射检测及其稳定最不利点有限元分析

罐顶板的缺陷检测对于评估立式拱顶罐的使用状况有着重要的意义,它的应用有助于更好地掌握立式拱顶罐的安全状况与可靠程度。将声发射法应用于罐顶板材料的检测,并对相关的设备仪器及操作流程进行介绍。为了给检测结果提供对照和参考,利用有限元分析法对拱顶瓜皮板的稳定最不利点进行了初步分析和定位。分析结果表明：顶板中上部肋板围成的区域可能会产生稳定最不利点,该部位应作为检测时重点关注的区域。     

海洋拖曳系统运动方程的变步长有限差分数值仿真

有限差分算法是常用的海洋拖曳系统运动仿真计算方法,传统的有限差分算法在对拖缆进行离散时,采用固定空间步长,为了提高数值计算的精度,通常需要减小空间步长,这既增加了计算时间,又浪费了计算机内存,甚至造成无法仿真一些工况。针对这一问题,提出了变步长有限差分数值算法,给出了步长变化的设定原则与算法,在建立海洋拖曳系统运动模型的基础上,系统分析了这一方法的求解思想与过程,并分别采用传统固定步长有限差分算法(大空间步长和小空间步长)和变步长有限差分算法,对模型进行了数值仿真,结果表明:变步长有限差分算法不仅保证了仿真计算精度,而且降低了计算机内存需求量,减少了计算时间。此外,变步长有限差分算法具有较高的灵活性,可根据实际情况,综合考虑计算时间、内存需求量和计算结果精度,从而选择合适的空间步长变化规律。     

航空吊放声纳主动方式暴露距离研究

航空吊放声纳是反潜作战主要搜潜设备之一,其主动工作方式暴露范围也是搜潜战术运用的重要参数。基于均方声压声纳方程修正了相关参数,得到了声能声纳方程各项参数定义,结合高斯束射线Bellhop模型,研究了吊放声纳主动方式暴露距离估算方法,针对潜艇两种声纳类型工作特性,进行了仿真和分析。仿真结果表明,在潜艇侦察声纳工作时,吊放声纳主动方式暴露距离明显加大。     

长方体类光学元件形位误差高精度测量方法

如何实现长方体元件光学面形位误差的高精度测量以及怎样利用测量数据对这些误差进行修正加工是制造过程中的主要问题。提出一种基于波面干涉的长方体类光学元件形位误差测量方法,借助大口径干涉仪和高精度端齿盘搭建测量系统,实现了长方体类光学元件1μm/400mm精度的平行度和垂直度测量,获得了高精度的形位误差综合分布数据,并利用磁流变、小磨头数控抛光等现代光学加工手段实现了此类光学元件的高精度加工。     

基于转移费用矩阵的机器人路径规划方法

本文描述了机器人路径规划的一种新方法：基于转移费用矩阵的机器人路径规划方法。通过定义转移费用矩阵的概念及其上的二元运算,将最优路径的生成,转化为矩阵的运算,使得有限步的矩阵运算,即可得到环境中所有点间的最优路径,达到了在预处理阶段构造最优路径集的目的。最后,介绍了该方法在移动机器人任务规划中的应用     

A bayesian optimisation methodology for the inverse derivation of viscoplasticity model constants in high strain-rate simulations

We present an inverse methodology for deriving viscoplasticity constitutive model parameters for use in explicit finite element simulations of dynamic processes using functional experiments, i.e., those which provide value beyond that of constitutive model development. The developed methodology utilises Bayesian optimisation to minimise the error between experimental measurements and numerical simulations performed in LS-DYNA. We demonstrate the optimisation methodology using high hardness armour steels across three types of experiments that induce a wide range of loading conditions: ballistic penetration, rod-on-anvil, and near-field blast deformation. By utilising such a broad range of conditions for the optimisation, the resulting constitutive model parameters are generalised, i.e., applicable across the range of loading conditions encompassed the by those experiments (e.g., stress states, plastic strain magnitudes, strain rates, etc.). Model constants identified using this methodology are demonstrated to provide a generalisable model with superior predictive accuracy than those derived from conventional mechanical characterisation experiments or optimised from a single experimental condition.     

Data-driven prediction of plate velocities and plate deformation of explosive reactive armor

Explosive reactive armor (ERA) is currently being actively developed as a protective system for mobile devices against ballistic threats such as kinetic energy penetrators and shaped-charge jets. Considering mobility, the aim is to design a protection system with a minimal amount of required mass. The efficiency of an ERA is sensitive to the impact position and the timing of the detonation. Therefore, different designs have to be tested for several impact scenarios to identify the best design. Since analytical models are not predicting the behavior of the ERA accurately enough and experiments, as well as numerical simulations, are too time-consuming, a data-driven model to estimate the displacements and deformation of plates of an ERA system is proposed here. The ground truth for the artificial neural network (ANN) is numerical simulation results that are validated with experiments. The ANN approximates the plate positions for different materials, plate sizes, and detonation point positions with sufficient accuracy in real-time. In a future investigation, the results from the model can be used to estimate the interaction of the ERA with a given threat. Then, a measure for the effectiveness of an ERA can be calculated. Finally, an optimal ERA can be designed and analyzed for any possible impact scenario in negligible time.