Damage functions and estimates of fratricide and collateral damage

There are multiple damage functions in the literature to estimate the probability that a single weapon detonation destroys a point target. This paper addresses differences in the tails of four of the more popular damage functions. These four cover the asymptotic tail behaviors of all monotonically decreasing damage functions with well‐behaved hazard functions. The differences in estimates of probability of kill are quite dramatic for large aim‐point offsets. This is particularly important when balancing the number of threats that can be engaged with the chances of fratricide and collateral damage. In general, analysts substituting one damage function for another may badly estimate kill probabilities in offset‐aiming, which could result in poor doctrine. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 306–321, 2003.     

导弹毁伤机场目标的信息处理技术

立足现实作战需求 ,运用多种图像处理方法和模式识别方法 ,研究目标实际毁伤信息的综合提取和处理方法 ,重点研究机场类目标的毁伤信息处理技术 ,建立了该类典型目标的打击效果判定系统。     

实时潜艇损管专家系统的设计与实现

介绍实时潜艇损管专家系统的设计与实现.该系统应用专家系统理论对潜艇损管训练及其在危险情况下进行损管决策领域的知识进行了建模,具有连续实时判断潜艇受损后的浮态和稳性以及制定损管决策方案和损管有效性检验功能.     

基于复杂性的战场损伤定位流程评价模型研究

损伤定位流程制定的合理与否是衡量一个评估员水平高低的重要指标之一。对损伤定位流程的评价涉及到所用时间、工具、操作的难度等指标都可以用其复杂性来表示,目前鲜有关于损伤定位流程评价的研究,因此提出战场损伤定位流程的复杂性,并借鉴软件工程领域的程序复杂性量化方法——图熵法对其进行量化。经过数据验证,复杂性与评估时间之间存在较好的拟合关系,并用实例说明了模型的应用效果。     

舰炮对海上集群小目标射击的毁伤概率

海上集群小目标是水面舰艇面临的主要威胁之一。以单管大口径舰炮对海上集群小目标射击作为研究对象,对集群目标进行了等效处理,分析了弹种、引信和装药的选择以及效力射中的表尺分配问题,提出多表尺效力射方法,利用该方法对海上集群小目标射击的毁伤概率进行了分析。结果表明,采用该方法并使用空炸榴弹或杀伤爆破弹,可有效破坏敌运输工具,杀伤其有生力量。     

The Practice and Power of Firing Broadsides in British Men of War During the Age of Fighting Sail

The development of naval broadside tactics and practice is discussed. The technology of smooth bore ordnance is examined, with an account of naval gunfiring trials. The fundamental purpose of gunnery at sea — damage to ship structure and casualties sufficient to disable an enemy ship — is reviewed.     

导弹打击三角形目标毁伤面积的一种解析计算方法

导弹火力运用研究中常常需要进行导弹打击面目标的毁伤面积计算,而三角形目标的毁伤面积计算是火力运用中诸多毁伤问题研究的基础,快速准确地完成其运算是前提.以斯特瓦尔特定理为基础,推导了圆与三角形相交部分面积的计算方法,通过点乘和叉乘有效回避了复杂计算,以圆心为三角形一个顶点时的三角形与圆相交部分面积计算为研究对象,分析了两者相交面积计算的各种情况,并给出具体计算步骤.算例表明,该算法运算量小,计算结果准确可靠.     

MEFP智能雷攻击坦克毁伤效能分析

以智能雷为研究对象,在建立智能雷扫描运动模型和命中毁伤模型的基础上,分析了MEFP智能雷攻击坦克的毁伤效能.通过建立攻击过程的蒙特卡洛模型,编制了智能雷攻击坦克目标的计算机仿真软件,计算了MEFP智能雷发射不同数目的EFP对坦克目标的毁伤概率.结果表明:MEFP智能雷攻击坦克目标的毁伤效能较高,可应用于对付大规模坦克装甲车辆的进攻和武装直升飞机的攻击.     

开孔复合材料层合板的拉伸强度和失效模式分析

为研究纤维编织工艺、铺层角度和孔径大小对开孔复合材料层合板拉伸强度和失效模式的影响规律,选用正交平纹玻纤层合板（WFL）和单向玻纤层合板（UFL）制作0°和45°铺层开孔拉伸试件,随后进行了试验研究;采用 Abaqus 建立基于二维 Hashion 失效准则的渐进损伤仿真模型,并对试验结果进行了对比,分析了试件的损伤机理。研究结果表明：层合板强度随开孔增大而减小,并且这种变化率随孔径增大而增大,45°铺层的层合板的变化率小于0°铺层,WFL 小于 UFL;WFL 的破坏以纤维断裂为主,裂纹垂直于纤维方向,UFL 以基体开裂为主,裂纹沿纤维方向,孔径则对破坏模式无明显影响;0°铺层 WFL 的破坏是由纤维拉伸失效导致,45°的则由纤维拉伸失效和基体拉伸剪切失效共同导致,0°铺层 UFL 由基体压缩失效导致,45°的则由基体拉伸剪切失效导致;拉伸强度的仿真与试验结果最大误差为14．1％,由此验证了仿真计算方法的有效性。     

Budget allocation under uncertainty and the costs of war and insecurity

This study presents a framework and models for the analysis of government budget allocation into defense and civilian expenditures in situations of uncertainty about the incidence of war. The models display the intricate relationships between security levels, subjective probabilities of the occurrence of war, and potential war damages. We show that poor countries tend to perceive greater probabilities of war than their richer rivals, and that the psychological burden of insecurity is larger when the country’s wealth is larger and when its preference for security is higher. We apply our models to the Israeli–Syrian arms race and show that the higher rate of growth of Israel’s gross domestic product relative to that of Syria is expected to lead to an increase in Syria’s perception of the likelihood of war and to a decrease in Israel’s perception of such a likelihood. We also show that if Syria’s regime becomes ideologically more extreme, the monetary cost of maintaining Israel’s security at the level that it enjoyed prior to the change will be very high, whereas the monetary cost of maintaining Israel’s welfare will be moderate.