基于改进GM(1,1)模型的导弹贮存可靠性预测方法

针对导弹系统技术复杂、贮存样本量受限、测试数据波动性较大等特点,结合装备的具体情况提出了基于改进GM(1,1)模型的导弹贮存可靠性预测方法。该方法首先利用"对数-幂函数变换"对导弹的历史可靠性数据进行处理,提高数据光滑度,然后依据GM(1,1)模型计算得到可靠性预测值和残差,再利用残差建立残差修正模型,得到残差修正值,减少残差对结果的影响,最后利用残差修正值修正可靠性预测值并还原,求得可靠性最终预测值。实例表明,该改进模型对导弹系统可靠性变化的描述比传统模型更加准确有效,预测结果精度更高,为导弹贮存可靠性预测分析提供了一种有效的改进方法,其算法设计推广性强,可作为其他装备寿命预估的重要工具。     

MONEY IN SOUTHERN AFRICAN POLITICS

“Lack of money is the root of all evil”

George Bernard Shaw

In a environment where party financing, private funding in particular, is generally a laissez-faire business, as in most Southern African countries, there is the real risk that interest groups and wealthy individuals will buy influence in political parties and in so doing erode public confidence in the political system. Because they are neither open to public scrutiny nor subject to any legislative restraints, huge private donations can, and often do, come with strings attached. This lack of transparency and openness, as well as mechanisms to prevent it, provides ample ground for influence peddling, where those who pay the piper call the tune. Left unchecked, this party funding scenario will continue to be a serious indictment of the region's democratisation projects, crippling democracy and stunting economic development. This article consid     

Strategic Defense and Attack for Series and Parallel Reliability Systems: Reply to Rejoinder

Kovenock and Roberson's (2012a, b) replication of Hausken’s (2008a) equations and parameter restrictions do not enhance our insight into the defense and attack of reliability systems. This reply intends to fill the remaining understanding gaps.     

What Goes Up Must Come Down: Military Expenditure and Civil Wars

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of civil war on military expenditure. We employ two measures of military expenditure: the share of military expenditure in general government expenditure and the logarithm of military expenditures. We would reasonably expect a priori that military expenditure as a share of general government expenditure increases during a civil war and that such increases would taper off over the duration of a civil war. We also explore whether the termination of a civil war induces a decline in the share of military expenditure as a share of the general government expenditure in the short-run. We find evidence the of share of military expenditure increases during a civil war and falls in the year succeeding the end of a civil war, and, in particular, if a war ends in a peace treaty. The level of military expenditures, however, rises during civil wars and does not appear to decline in the short-term after the end of a civil war.     

海水淡化系统余压能回收过程的仿真模拟

针对阀控式海水淡化能量回收装置增泄压过程中压力波动和浓盐水海水掺混导致反渗透膜组件工作负担变大的问题,对增压容器和增压过程建立模型,使用流体力学软件Fluent仿真增压过程,得到了增压过程液压缸内部流域的压力和速度分布。探究了混合段液柱活塞的形成过程和长度变化,通过对比液压缸结构和进水口流速变化对混合程度的影响,给出了用混合段做液柱活塞的参数特性和适用性,为海水淡化系统余压能回收设计提供依据。     

Russian military reform: institutional,political and security implications

This critical comment examines the incentives, major priorities, difficulties and first results of the Russian military reform that is being implemented since 2008. The authors conclude that despite numerous drawbacks and barriers to the reformist efforts certain successes can be identified. Particularly, there is a clear shift from the old-fashioned, Soviet-type army to a more compact, mobile, better equipped and combat-ready armed forces that are capable to cope with today's challenges to Russian national security.     

外军反舰导弹装备使用现状及发展趋势研究

反舰导弹作为海上舰船＂杀手＂,其发展一直倍受各国海军关注。文章对反舰导弹的发展历程进行了回顾,对目前外军已经装备和正在研发的典型反舰导弹进行了分析和研究。以此为基础,对未来反舰导弹的发展趋势进行了探讨和展望,提出未来新型反舰导弹将趋于超远程化、超高速化、超隐身化、网络化和智能化。     

军事新闻标题中的词汇运用特点刍议——以《解放军报》为例

军事新闻的报道对象与普通新闻相比有着很大的不同,其报道对象为与军事相关的事件,这类事件具有很强的专业性和特殊的敏感性。在军事新闻传播过程中,新闻标题起着关键作用。为了准确地反映和提示新闻的内容,吸引读者阅读,军事新闻标题中的词汇运用必然呈现出与普通新闻不同的特点。以中央军委机关报——《解放军报》为例,分析归纳军事新闻标题中的词汇运用特点有四个方面：大量使用军事术语,恰当使用略语,准确使用数字和谨慎使用新词、流行语。     

从孙子“静以幽，正以治”谈军校学员领导力培养

坚强的领导力是确保军事行动成功的关键。军校学员领导力不同于普通意义上的领导力。孙子“静以幽,正以治”的论述,揭示了军校学员领导力培养的基本内容、基本标准和各内容之间的辩证关系,对军校学员领导力培养具有重要的启迪意义。军校必须将培养超常的心质作为学员领导力的基础,把提升思维的广度和深度作为学员领导力的保障,将培养强烈的感召力作为学员领导力的核心,将培养坚强的执行力作为学员领导力的支撑。     

军校图书馆发挥思想政治教育功能实现途径探析

图书馆是军队院校思想政治教育的重要阵地。分析论证了图书馆在军校思想政治教育中具有的转化功能、强化功能和内化功能,并从强化阵地意识、注重阅读引导、提高服务水平、营造环境氛围四个方面,就如何发挥军校图书馆在思想政治教育中的功能作用进行了探讨。