Markovian models of three‐on‐one combat involving a hidden defender

In this paper, Markovian models of three‐on‐one stochastic firefights between ground‐based weapon systems are developed. These models address a common scenario of interest to the military, but one which has been much neglected in analytic combat models, that of combat between a hidden defender and an exposed attacking force. Each combatant must detect an opponent before commencing their firing cycle, a task which is considerably more difficult for the attacker. In the models developed here, the defender detects the exposed attacking group after an exponentially distributed time interval, while each attacker has a fixed probability of detecting the defender via the flash signature produced after each shot fired by him. The utility of the approach is demonstrated by investigating what impact the introduction of a coordinated gun‐laying system for the attacking force might have, a system made possible by battlefield digitization. The method used here allows models to be developed incrementally. This and other advantages of the Markovian approach are discussed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 627–646, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10041     

To free or not to free (ride): a comparative analysis of the NATO burden-sharing in the Czech Republic and Lithuania

ABSTRACT

The recent rise in the defence budgets among the NATO members reawakens the free-riding dilemma. This article provides an analysis of the defence spending of two new member states, the Czech Republic and Lithuania. Based on the free-riding theory, we explain why some of the new NATO members decide to increase their defence budgets (Lithuania), and others do not (Czech Republic). In contrast to the majority of works which focus either on the US as the biggest spender or on the “old” members of the Alliance, we explain under what circumstances some of the small European states who became new NATO members started to increase their defence budgets even though they do not have to, and the literature suggests that free-riding is easier. In the process, we identify three crucial factors that in?uence the decision-making process in this regard: the level of threat perception, economic situation, and the US pressure.     

“算法战”及其在空战领域中的应用

随着战争从体能较量、技能较量发展为智能较量,"算法战"与人工智能和指挥控制系统相关联并在其中占据关键地位,是实现智能化作战和建设智能军队的技术基础。通过梳理与总结美军在落实"算法战"研究方面所进行的开创性工作,理清"算法战"发展的脉络,重点对"算法战"产生背景、基本概念与内涵以及发展现状进行了探讨,结合课题组在航空集群作战领域的研究基础,探讨"算法战"在空战领域的落脚应用的可鉴之策,为我空军装备的信息化升级和智能化转型奠定基础。     

武器装备试验计量保障有关问题的思考

计量保障是武器装备试验数据准确和试验质量可靠的重要保证,是考核与评价装备战术技术指标的关键环节,在武器装备的发展建设中发挥着不可替代的基础作用。本文结合目前武器装备试验计量保障工作的现状,从计量管理的法制化、试验计量保障能力建设、试验装备的强制检定和装备计量保障信息数据库等若干方面深入阐述了试验需求和法律法规要求,探讨了做好试验计量保障工作应采取的改进措施。     

基于HHM的军事演习风险识别

军事演习风险对军事演习的安全顺利进行有很大的影响。有效控制演习风险,首先需要全面、系统地识别出军事演习中存在的风险因素。本文在给出军事演习风险定义的基础上,运用等级全息模型(hierarchical holographic modeling,HHM)~([1])的思想和方法建立HHM风险识别模型,对军事演习中存在的风险进行分析和识别,有助于提升军事演习风险识别的准确性和全面性,为军事演习风险的评估和控制打下坚实的基础,对军事演习的安全进行和军事训练水平的提升具有重要意义。     

军事装备采购邀请招标的对象数量法律规范研究

招标采购因其管理规范性和采购过程的透明性,逐渐成为我国军事装备采购的主要方式之一。国家军事法规和规章规范了公开招标和邀请招标两种军事装备招标采购方式。本文对我国部分军事法规和军事规章中的军事装备邀请招标相关法律规范进行了梳理,并通过与我国招标投标法、招标投标法实施条例等法律法规的对照分析,发现目前我国相关军事法规和军事规章中关于军事装备邀请招标采购的对象数量的相关规定与我国招标投标法存在不一致之处,其规定本身也存在不尽完善之处。最后,根据我国立法体系,提出应按照招标投标法的规定,进一步完善我国军事法规和军事规章中邀请招标的相关法律规范,以更好地提升军事装备采购的质量,推进我国国防和军队现代化建设。     

Nuclear opportunism: A theory of how states use nuclear weapons in international politics

How do states use nuclear weapons to achieve their goals in international politics? Nuclear weapons can influence state decisions about a range of strategic choices relating to military aggression, the scope of foreign policy objectives, and relations with allies. The article offers a theory to explain why emerging nuclear powers use nuclear weapons to facilitate different foreign policies: becoming more or less aggressive; providing additional support to allies or proxies, seeking independence from allies; or expanding the state’s goals in international politics. I argue that a state’s choices depend on the presence of severe territorial threats or an ongoing war, the presence of allies that provide for the state’s security, and whether the state is increasing in relative power. The conclusion discusses implications of the argument for our understanding of nuclear weapons and the history of proliferation, and nonproliferation policy today.     

Learning ‘Under Fire’: Israel’s improvised military adaptation to Hamas tunnel warfare

What organisational attributes enhance a military’s ability to effectively adapt on the battlefield? Upon the outbreak of war in July 2014 between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) encountered an expansive network of tunnels from which Hamas was launching large-scale assaults into Israel. This article illustrates that the IDF’s ability to successfully adapt ‘under fire’ to this battlefield surprise was facilitated by several important attributes related to its organisational learning capacity: a dynamic, action-oriented organisational culture, a flexible leadership and command style, specialised commando units which acted as ‘incubators’ for learning and innovation, and a formal system to institutionalise and disseminate lessons learned.     

Whistleblowing in the Irish Military: The Cost of Exposing Bullying and Sexual Harassment

Whistleblowing has gained increasing media attention over the past 40 years, as incidents of abuse and wrongdoing associated with businesses, religious institutions, the media and politics have come to light. In this article, we investigate the consequences of a military whistleblower’s actions for both himself and the military institution that he was a part of. The case concerns former army officer Dr. Tom Clonan and his findings concerning the bullying and sexual harassment of female personnel in the Irish Defence Forces at the turn of the century. As these revelations came to light over 17 years ago we are able to examine their consequences for the military since that time.     

A usable past: a contemporary approach to history for the Western profession of arms

The most effective way for the Western profession of arms to use history is to disavow the purism and narrow specialisation of today’s academia in favour of developing a contemporary approach to the subject. The latter aims to foster a range of applied diagnostic skills that transcend the temporal dimensions of past, present, and future. A contemporary approach to history for military professionals emphasises the use of inter-disciplinary war studies to enhance policy relevance. In any defense and security organisation, history must be usable in the sense of providing cognitive and interpretative skills for probing relationships between possibility and actuality, between experience and expectation, and between singularity and repetition. Using history to examine such dialectical interconnections is particularly valuable when military establishments confront their essential task of analyzing emerging trends in the future of war.